Decoupling relationship between economic growth and PM2.5 emissions in the transportation sector in China: regional differences and influencing factors

Abstract

PM2.5 emissions from the transportation sector are a source of haze pollution in China, to which, however, less attention is paid by society. The decoupling relationships between PM2.5 emissions and economic growth from the transportation sector in the eastern, central, and western regions of China from 2010 to 2017 are analyzed by using the Tapio decoupling model. On this basis, in the transportation sector, socioeconomic factors influencing PM2.5 emissions and effective means of controlling PM2.5 emissions are studied by using a logarithmic mean Divisia index model. The results indicate that: (a) in China’s transportation sector, the decoupling relationships of the two aspects in the eastern, central, and western regions show an N-shaped trend, that is, the rate of change in PM2.5 emissions from the transportation sector gradually exceeds that of economic development. The strong decoupling changes into an expansive coupling in the eastern and central regions, while the strong decoupling becomes an expansive negative decoupling in the western region. (b) Economic growth and population growth mainly contribute to the increase of PM2.5 emissions. Improvements of the energy structure and a decrease in transport intensity are the main factors driving a reduction in PM2.5 emissions. (c) Due to regional differences in the ‘rebound effect’ and ‘technological effect’, technological progress has increased PM2.5 emissions from the transportation sector in the central region, while reduced such emissions in the eastern and western regions. This research provides targeted policy reference for regional governance of PM2.5 emissions from the transportation sector.