Decline of the West? An IPE perspective on the multiplex world order and the ‘geoeconomic turn’

Economic indicators augur lower global growth over the next quarter of a century. The main culprits are debt and falling productivity. At the same time, we are experiencing a shift in global economic power — to the disadvantage of existing economic heavyweights such as the United States, Europe and Japan — due to major trends in demographics and savings. Africa may turn out to be a major economic player, while Russia and the Middle East may diminish in power. All this will influence geopolitics, but it may also be instrumental in the economic sphere — forcing a change in global economic policies and the way people look at economics. The Global Outlook Horizon, 2030 Over the next fifteen years, new or accelerating trends in debt, demography, urbanization, global savings, innovation, productivity and energy will transform the global power structure, with unprecedented speed, magnitude and impact. Debt: Debt will lower the rate of global growth and limit the room to manoeuvre, especially for Japan, the United States, Britain and South Korea. In 2013 the Bank for International Settlements (BIS 2013) analysed how much fiscal tightening major countries will need to make in order to achieve a sustainable position in their public debt by the year 2040. For the United States, the figure was 14.1 per cent, for Japan 14.9 per cent, Britain 13.2 and Korea 11.9. The eurozone countries — often considered to be languishing in a debt trap — presented a much more promising picture. Germany was expected to need only an additional 3.4 per cent of fiscal tightening, France 5.4 per cent, Italy 4.0 and Spain 11.4. China, meanwhile, will need 2.5 per cent and India 3.7 per cent. When it comes to private corporate debt, it is the emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) that appear to be in a more vulnerable position, compared to developed countries. Their share of world corporate debt has risen steadily in recent years, while in the industrial countries there has been a slight deleveraging in this segment of debt ( The Economist 2015). A more immediate concern is the proposed interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which threatens the position of industrial economies and EMDEs alike, though in different ways.

Given growing awareness for ‘global power shifts’ and the ‘Western’-centrism of International Relations (IR), this article re-conceptualizes the phenomena subsumed under these two labels. By understanding ‘global power shifts’ and ‘world order’ as discursive phenomena, the article argues that discourses by fixing particular meanings and identities constitute the objects and subjects of which they speak. The discourses on ‘Global power shifts’ and ‘Post-Western IR’ are an expression of a hegemonic struggle over meanings and identities, resulting from the dislocation of existing meaning-systems and identities and enabling ‘new’ agents to assert particular representations of the world as universal. Drawing on the notion of discursive hegemony, developed by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe, the article develops an analytical framework for conceptualizing the evolution and implications of this shift in representational power in the field of IR.

Abstract: This chapter explores the significant role of emerging economies in reshaping global power dynamics and international relations. It analyzes how countries like China, India, Brazil, and Russia are driving shifts in global governance, economic power, and political influence. The chapter examines the economic growth drivers of these nations, their increasing participation in global institutions, and their role in forming new alliances such as BRICS. Additionally, it discusses the strategic importance of energy, trade, and regional security in the geopolitical landscape, highlighting how emerging economies are challenging traditional Western dominance. The chapter also addresses the challenges these economies face, including governance issues, environmental concerns, and their future impact on the global order. Keywords: emerging economies, global power shifts, international relations, BRICS, China, India, Brazil, Russia, economic growth, global governance, geopolitical influence, energy security, trade, regional security, global institutions, challenges in governance.

Vision of a Void: Shifting Global Power and the Future of U.S.-China Relations

Will the Petro-Yuan Be the Death Knell for the Petrodollar?

This research analyzed multipolarity in development financing, focusing on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). These two banks represent a shift in global economic power from the West to the Far East, particularly with the rising role of China. Using the Neorealism theoretical framework, the research examined the political-economic differences, leadership structures, and financing patterns of AIIB and ADB. The data showed that AIIB and ADB significantly differ in membership, objectives, initial capital, geographical coverage, environmental policies, and relationships with major economies such as China, Japan, and the United States. Their financing patterns across various Asian economies, such as India and Bangladesh, reflect a more balanced power distribution and the resilience of the international system. Additionally, the flexible approach of AIIB contrasts with ADB’s stricter conditionality, highlighting differing strategies in development financing. The findings indicate that multipolarity in development financing enhances stability and order in the international system, consistent with Neorealism’s view on the importance of natural power competition. The presence of both institutions encourages innovation and adaptation, contributing to a more robust and diverse global financial architecture.

Changes in global power distribution and rising threats and challenges globally along with the changes in global partnering systems have important implications for the South Asian region in terms of maintaining regional peace and stability. This study focuses on examining how changes on the international system level, including the leadership shift of China, the renewed vigour of India as one of the rising powers in South Asia, the shift of the U.S foreign policy and the role of multilateralism, are affecting security dynamics in South Asia. This paper discusses factors like enhanced strategic rivalry between the US and China, nuclearization of some existing and emerging conflicts, and the character of warfare in Afghanistan and Kashmir, which have a potential impact on the stability of this region(Smith & Jones, 1997). In this study, the political, economic and security angles describe how the changes in the world order have impacted the balance of power between the SAARC countries and examine the implications of the new world order for the stability of South Asia. According to the provided findings, the nature of a new kind of cooperation and diplomacy is present; however, the interactions of contemporary international and regional processes present some problems for the creation of stability in the long period. Finally, this paper provides recommendations on how the nations of South Asia and other world actors can prioritize and cultivate peace in an area that will be more influenced by shifts in global power, and competition between countries (Bukhari, Khan, & Haq, 2024).

1. Introduction1At a time in which enormous shifts in global power are taking place and the question is already beginning to change from whether to when China will overtake the United States as the most powerful country (at least as far as economic power is concer ned), power transition theory (PTT) once again rises into pr ominence. Indeed scholars in the US, in China a nd in other countries use PTT as a template to analyze future US-China relations (Wolf 2014; Cheng Gao 2011; Tammen and Kugler 2006).PTT is most commonly associated with great power war, but as a matter of fact peaceful power transitions are also consistent with the theory (Rauch 2014). While PTT recognizes that situations of power parity and power transition have a high conflict potential as they open up windows of opportunities, it also stipulates that this conflict potential will only be realized if the rising power2 is dissatisfied with the status quo of the international order (Lemke and Kugler 1996: 12).3 Thus concerning the rise of China, the questions when the People's Republic will reach parity with the United States and whether China is satisfied wit h t he international order (or not) are of paramount importance. I argue in this article that standard PTT is in need of adjustments regarding both topics. If standard PTT is flawed, however, then so ar e its predictions and policy prescriptions. Indeed the alterations I propose do not only lead to a more sophisticated and internally coherent power transition theory but also to a quit e differ ent interpretation of China's rise in world politics and the prospects of an imminent power transition conflict.In order to do so I engage the case of Weimarian Germany in this article. Ger many is an appropriate case, as is used by an influential PTT study to exemplify how the theory works (Tammen et al. 2000: 51-54). In the first part of this article I briefly introduce standard power transition theory and then propose my adjustments of PTT that concern a) the need to regard satisfaction as continual (instead of a dichotomous) variable and b) a refocus of PTT's power analysis from the bilateral duel between dominant and prime rising power t o a mor e multilateral setting that includes other important players as well. In the second part I illustrate my arguments utilizing the empir ica l ca se of W ei ma r ia n Germany. First I ar gue, in cont ra st t o t he standard account, that the Weimar Republic is incompatible with standard PTT. In two phases during the 1920s in which Germany had reached parity with the dominant power Great Britain, it was indeed not satisfied with the status quo of the international order. Weimarian Germany thus contradicts and potentially falsifies standard PTT. The adjusted PTT, however, fares much better, as I show in the second part of the empirical analysis: Not only does Germany appear less dissatisfied when one applies a satisfaction scale instead of a binary satisfaction rating but also the alleged situation of parity disappears into thin air as soon as other great powers are entered into the equation. In the conclusion I argue that the theoretical adjustments proposed here are not only of consequence for the interpretation of the Weimar case or PTT in general but also alter the way we should look at the rise of China from a PTT informed perspective.2. Introducing and Adjusting Power Transition TheoryPower transition theory, as originally established by A.F.K Organski and Organski and Jacek Kugler, in ess ence claims that international politics resembles a hierarchy rather than an anarchy of realistic creed (Organski 1968; Organski and Kugler 1980). Atop the international power pyramid thrones a dominant power (often the winner of the last great power war) who once created and now safeguards the international order (Siverson and Miller 1996: 59).4 Beneath the dominant power are different categories of smaller powers (great power, middle powers, lesser powers). …

Asia continues to accelerate the shift of the global economic centre of gravity through sustained growth and the development of consumer economies; investors unwaveringly continue to seek exposure to the region for diversification and returns. As the economic realignment from West to East has been steadily unfolding over the past decade, the long-term trend remains clear that the region’s growing population will drive growth over the foreseeable future. Economies within Asia are projected to expand through continued industrialisation and development of infrastructure, a rising middle-class consumer society, and increased production and export of natural resources. Although China is a symbol of the shift in global economic power away from the developed G7 economies, China has experienced rapid double-digit growth over the first four decades of its reform period, fuelled by exports and manufacturing through an investment-driven growth model. However, there has been no shortage of desire for development among African countries, yet it is quite hazardous to talk of development strategies in Africa. It is on this ground the chapter seeks to find out the possible challenges bedevilling African industrialisation process.

Dealing with Allies in Decline: U.S. Strategy and Alliance Management in an Era of Global Power Shifts

Latin American security is still viewed through a Cold War lens. Yet, the regional scenario has changed since then and is characterized by developments like the disengagement of the United States, the emergence of ‘regional powers’, the creation of ever more multilateral security institutions, and new interpretations of the concepts of regionalism and regional integration. We argue that we cannot understand the management of security challenges without accounting for regional and global power shifts and political dynamics. Therefore, the introductory chapter presents an analytical framework to assess the impact of global and regional power shifts on the regional governance of specific security challenges such as interstate disputes, internal political violence, terrorism, drug-trafficking, and illegal migration. It will also give an outlook on how the different contributions substantiate our argument.

While growth-dependent planning is the current dominant mode, there are substantial criticisms to be made. This chapter reviews such criticisms focusing on three areas in particular: the implications for equity between social groups and the persistence of inequalities despite long term reliance on such planning, with some localities even experiencing growth in inequalities during periods of economic prosperity; the environmental justice implications with the distribution of environmental goods and bads arising from growth unequally impacting on different social groups; and the implications for sustainability in terms of resources use and management of external environmental impacts such as pollution (including carbon emissions). The chapter also points to the problem of the effectiveness of such leverage planning in times of economic downturn, whether short term (arising from economic cycles) or longer term (arising from global economic restructuring). Given the current economic circumstances and the emerging shifts in global economic power, these are important contextual considerations for the operation of planning.

Coined in 2001 by an economist at the multinational global investment firm Goldman Sachs, the “BRICs” acronym (referring to Brazil, Russia, India, and China) identified a group of four countries that were, due to their scale, population size, and growing share of global GDP, regarded as the leading non-Western economies and as future motors of global accumulation. The acronym, with the addition of S for South Africa, has since come into widespread use as a symbol of the apparently epochal shift in global economic power away from the developed G7 economies toward the “developing world,” and the wider realignment of world economic and ultimately political power that would be engendered by the collective influence of these countries. This chapter seeks to explore the changing political geographies resulting from the rise of the BRICS and the implications for the contemporary study of international relations.

The shift in global economic power has transformed the dynamics of economic relations between nations. Developing countries are increasingly prominent in their contributions to global economic growth. This article analyzes the driving factors behind the progress of developing nations such as China, Brazil, India, and ASEAN countries. The analysis focuses on population growth, technological advancement, industrialization, and integration into international trade. This article employs a qualitative literature review approach and descriptive analysis. The study examines two theoretical perspectives: modernization theory, which emphasizes technology-and investment-driven economic transformation, and dependency theory, which critiques the structural inequalities between developed and developing nations. The findings reveal that while developing countries have succeeded in increasing their GDP contributions and roles in global economic forums like the G20, they still face challenges such as reliance on commodity exports, developmental disparities, and geopolitical pressures. The article proposes the implementation of sustainable development as a solution to balance economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability, enablingdeveloping nations to become strategic actors in global economic trends.

BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and has emerged as the symbol of the shift in global economic power, developing at a faster pace than industrialized countries. BRICS accounted for 53% of the entire global GDP growth during the period 2007-2010 and, in the next 40 years, as much as 80% of the world's economic growth will come from emerging market countries. Despite the fact that infrastructure in BRICS has improved markedly in recent years, these countries have not created a modern, broad healthcare system as encountered in the G7 industrialized countries and extensive regional differences in health expenditure exist between them. Nevertheless, the BRICS countries are quickly taking the lead in encouraging innovation, simplifying devices and processes and applying newer technologies that are more adapted to consumers' needs and less costly. Cardiovascular surgery in the BRICS countries remains far lower when compared with the G7 countries and the cardiovascular surgical training also varies widely. However, this huge shift in the global economy and the regional discrepancies might represent a unique opportunity for co-operation, interaction and partnership to integrate cardiovascular societies and surgeons all over the globe for the best care of our patients: surely it will contribute to making our world more egalitarian, fairer and better.