Decarbonizing transportation through electric vehicles: A life cycle perspective across China, Europe, and the USA.

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector is the goal of several current policies and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are seen as one option to achieve this goal. However, the introduction of BEVs in the fleet is gradual and their benefits will depend on how they compare with increasingly more energy-efficient internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The aim of this article is to assess whether displacing ICEVs by BEVs in the Portuguese light-duty fleet is environmentally beneficial (focusing on GHG emissions), taking into account the dynamic behavior of the fleet. A dynamic fleet-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the Portuguese light-duty fleet was performed, addressing life-cycle (LC) GHG emissions through 2030 across different scenarios. A model was developed, integrating: (i) a vehicle stock sub-model of the Portuguese light-duty fleet; and (ii) dynamic LC sub-models of three vehicle technologies (gasoline ICEV, diesel ICEV and BEV). Two metrics were analyzed: (i) Total fleet LC GHG emissions (in Mton CO2 eq); and (ii) Fleet LC GHG emissions per kilometer (in g CO2 eq/km). A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of different parameters in the results and ranking of scenarios. The model baseline projected a reduction of 30–39 % in the 2010–2030 fleet LC GHG emissions depending on the BEV fleet penetration rate and ICEV fuel consumption improvements. However, for BEV introduction in the fleet to be beneficial compared to an increasingly more efficient ICEV fleet, a high BEV market share and electricity emission factor similar or lower to the current mix (485 g CO2 eq/kWh) need to be realized; these conclusions hold for the different conditions analyzed. Results were also sensitive to parameters that affect the fleet composition, such as those that change the vehicle stock, the scrappage rate, and the activity level of the fleet (11–19 % variation in GHG emissions in 2030), which are seldom assessed in the LCA of vehicles. The influence of these parameters also varies over time, becoming more important as time passes. These effects can only be captured by assessing Total fleet GHG emissions over time as opposed to the GHG emissions per kilometer metric. These results emphasize the importance of taking into account the dynamic behavior of the fleet, technology improvements over time, and changes in vehicle operation and background processes during the vehicle service life when assessing the potential benefits of displacing ICEVs by BEVs.

Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions of electric versus combustion vehicles from 2018 to 2030 in the US

The promotion of new energy in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is considered as an effective approach for achieving low-carbon road transport targets. In this study, life cycle assessment was performed for five typical vehicle models in Suzhou City (fourth largest LDV stock in China): internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Their energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions during vehicle and fuel cycles in 2020 were examined using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. GHG emission reduction potential of LDV fleet was projected under various scenarios for 2021-2040. The results showed that BEVs exhibited advantages for replacing ICEVs over HEVs, PHEVs and HFCVs, taking into account China's road electrification policy. The GHG emission intensity of BEVs in 2040 was estimated to be 19-34% of ICEVs in 2020, with a deep decarbonized electricity mix and improved vehicle efficiency. For the aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario, the GHG emissions of LDVs would peak before 2026, ahead of China's target by 2030, and the ~ 100% share of EVs in 2040 would result in a lower GHG emissions, equivalent to the 2010 level. It highlights the importance of early action, green electricity mix, and public transport development in reducing GHG emissions of large LDV fleet.

Electrification can reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of light-duty vehicles. Previous studies have focused on comparing battery electric vehicle (BEV) sedans to their conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) or hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) counterparts. We extend the analysis to different vehicle classes by conducting a cradle-to-grave life cycle GHG assessment of model year 2020 ICEV, HEV, and BEV sedans, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and pickup trucks in the United States. We show that the proportional emissions benefit of electrification is approximately independent of vehicle class. For sedans, SUVs, and pickup trucks we find HEVs and BEVs have approximately 28% and 64% lower cradle-to-grave life cycle emissions, respectively, than ICEVs in our base case model. This results in a lifetime BEV over ICEV GHG emissions benefit of approximately 45 tonnes CO2e for sedans, 56 tonnes CO2e for SUVs, and 74 tonnes CO2e for pickup trucks. The benefits of electrification remain significant with increased battery size, reduced BEV lifetime, and across a variety of drive cycles and decarbonization scenarios. However, there is substantial variation in emissions based on where and when a vehicle is charged and operated, due to the impact of ambient temperature on fuel economy and the spatiotemporal variability in grid carbon intensity across the United States. Regionally, BEV pickup GHG emissions are 13%–118% of their ICEV counterparts and 14%–134% of their HEV counterparts across U.S. counties. BEVs have lower GHG emissions than HEVs in 95%–96% of counties and lower GHG emissions than ICEVs in 98%–99% of counties. As consumers migrate from ICEVs and HEVs to BEVs, accounting for these spatiotemporal factors and the wide range of available vehicle classes is an important consideration for electric vehicle deployment, operation, policymaking, and planning.

Comparative environmental life cycle assessment of electric and conventional vehicles in Lithuania

The transportation sector is generally thought to be contributing up to 25% of all greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions globally. Hence, reducing the usage of fossil fuels by the introduction of electrified powertrain technologies such as hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) is perceived as a way towards a more sustainable future. With a seemingly more significant shift towards BEV development and roll-out, the research and development of BEV technologies has taken on increasing importance in improving BEV performance and ensuring its competitiveness. Numerical simulation, using MATLAB, is performed as a tool to investigate and to improve the overall performance of BEVs. This study provides an overview of the possible technology outcome and market consequences for future compact BEVs along with HEVs, FCEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV). The techno-economics of BEVs, market projection and cost analysis up to 2050 are investigated, as are important BEV characteristics alongside those of other types of vehicles. Well-to-wheel analysis of BEVs is also studied and compared with HEV, FCEV and ICE.

Development and application of life-cycle energy consumption and carbon footprint analysis model for passenger vehicles in China

Electrified vehicles, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from personal transportation by shifting energy demand from gasoline to electricity. GHG reduction potential depends on vehicle design, adoption, driving and charging patterns, charging infrastructure, and electricity generation mix. We construct an optimization model to study these factors by determining optimal design of conventional vehicles (CVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), PHEVs, and BEVs and optimal allocation of vehicle designs and charging infrastructure in the fleet for minimum lifecycle GHG emissions over a range of scenarios. We focus on vehicles with similar size and acceleration to a Toyota Prius under urban EPA driving conditions. We find that under today’s U.S. average grid mix, the vehicle fleet allocated for minimum GHG emissions includes HEVs and PHEVs with ~30 miles (48 km) of electric range. Allocating only CVs, HEVs, PHEVs, or BEVs will produce 86%, 1%, 0%, or 13+% more life cycle GHG emissions, respectively. Unlike BEVs, PHEVs do consume some gasoline; however, PHEVs can power a large portion of vehicle miles on electrical energy while accommodating infrequent long trips without need for a large battery pack, with its corresponding production and weight implications. Availability of workplace charging for 90% of vehicles optimistically reduces optimized GHG emissions by 0.5%. Under decarbonized grid scenarios, larger battery packs are more competitive and reduce life cycle GHG emissions significantly. Future work will relax modeling assumptions and address life cycle cost and cost-effectiveness of GHG reductions.

The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) are promoted due to their potential for reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A comparative life-cycle assessment (LCA) between different technologies should account for variation in the scenarios under which vehicles are operated in order to facilitate decision-making regarding the adoption and promotion of EVs. In this study, we compare life-cycle GHG emissions, in terms of CO2eq, of EVs and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) over a wide range of use-phase scenarios in the USA, aiming to identify the vehicles with lower GHG emissions and the key uncertainties regarding this impact. An LCA model is used to propagate the uncertainty in the use phase into the greenhouse gas emissions of different powertrains available today for compact and midsize vehicles in the US market. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the parameter space and gather statistics about GHG emissions of those powertrains. Spearman’s partial rank correlation coefficient is used to assess the level of contribution of each input parameter to the variance of GHG intensity. Within the scenario space under study, battery electric vehicles are more likely to have the lowest GHG emissions when compared with other powertrains. The main drivers of variation in the GHG impact are driver aggressiveness (for all vehicles), charging location (for EVs), and fuel economy (for ICEVs). The probabilistic approach developed and applied in this study enables an understanding of the overall variation in GHG footprint for different technologies currently available in the US market and can be used for a comparative assessment. Results identify the main drivers of variation and shed light on scenarios under which the adoption of current EVs can be environmentally beneficial from a GHG emissions standpoint.

Development and application of an electric vehicles life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions analysis model

PurposeThis study compares the environmental impacts of transitioning from a business-as-usual (BaU) internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) pathway to one adopting battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Qatar from 2022 to 2050. The analysis is based on geographically representative empirical data, focusing exclusively on the light-duty, personal vehicle sector. The research explores environmental performance trends, uncertainties, and potential implications of transitioning from ICEVs to BEVs within the Qatar National Vision (QNV) 2030 framework.MethodsUtilising the ReCiPe method, this time-dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) assessed a range of relevant environmental impact categories: global warming potential, particulate matter, human toxicity, acidification and resource depletion. This analysis incorporates different light-duty vehicle (LDV) types such as sedans, sport utility vehicle (SUVs) and sport vehicles. The impacts of potential technological advancements, such as in fuel efficiency for ICEVs and charging electricity supply and/or battery technology for the BEVs, were included to provide a more encompassing view of the environmental implications of both vehicle types.Results and discussionDecreasing environmental impact for ICEVs and BEVs is observed, with BEVs’ greater potential in reducing Qatar’s transport sector’s carbon footprint. Uncertainties emerged as this potential decrease was not seen in all impact categories, nor vehicle technology or timeframe. This stresses the BEV’s transition importance of production location and energy sources. This was observed for the carbon footprint and overarching environmental impact of battery production, exacerbated in regions reliant on fossil fuel electricity. Qatar, endowed with substantial fossil fuel reserves, relies on natural gas for electricity provision; therefore, the potential benefits of introducing BEVs are limited without strong shifts to renewables. Further research in vehicle production, disposal and technological advancements will prove essential, especially in a maturing sector like electric vehicle production and processing.ConclusionsBEVs have the potential to reduce the environmental impacts of Qatar’s transport sector. Yet, the short payback period for newer BEVs is linked with the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity production, emphasising the dual challenge for Qatar with its reliance on fossil fuels. Considering environmental, economic and societal facets, a transition taking into account all facets of sustainability and not purely the introduction of BEVs is imperative in aligning with Qatar’s 2030 sustainable vision.RecommendationsA clear understanding of the socio-economic and environmental aspects of the ICEV-BEV transition is urgently required, emphasising production, disposal and technological innovations. Exploring alternative batteries and recycling methods can offer pathways to mitigate environmental concerns associated with BEVs. Regions like Qatar are underrepresented in the available literature, yet should be part of the research on sustainable transitions to provide insights on the opportunity and co-benefits that arise from the development of relevant sustainability transition planning.

Which type of electric vehicle is worth promoting mostly in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality? A case study for a metropolis in China

The option of decarbonizing urban freight transport using battery electric vehicle (BEV) seems promising. However, there is currently a strong debate whether fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) might be the better solution. The question arises as to how a fleet of FCEV influences the operating cost, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy demand in comparison to BEVs and to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). To investigate this, we simulate the urban food retailing as a representative share of urban freight transport using a multi-agent transport simulation software. Synthetic routes as well as fleet size and composition are determined by solving a vehicle routing problem. We compute the operating costs using a total cost of ownership analysis and the use phase emissions as well as primary energy demand using the well to wheel approach. While a change to BEV results in 17–23% higher costs compared to ICEV, using FCEVs leads to 22–57% higher costs. Assuming today’s electricity mix, we show a GHG emission reduction of 25% compared to the ICEV base case when using BEV. Current hydrogen production leads to a GHG reduction of 33% when using FCEV which however cannot be scaled to larger fleets. Using current electricity in electrolysis will increase GHG emission by 60% compared to the base case. Assuming 100% renewable electricity for charging and hydrogen production, the reduction from FCEVs rises to 73% and from BEV to 92%. The primary energy requirement for BEV is in all cases lower and for higher compared to the base case. We conclude that while FCEV have a slightly higher GHG savings potential with current hydrogen, BEV are the favored technology for urban freight transport from an economic and ecological point of view, considering the increasing shares of renewable energies in the grid mix.

Greenhouse gas emissions of conventional and alternative vehicles: Predictions based on energy policy analysis in South Korea