Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II: risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions

Submarine pipelines have become integral for transporting resources and drinking water across large bodies. Therefore, ensuring the stability and reliability of these submarine pipelines is crucial. Incorporating climate change impacts into the design of marine structures is paramount to assure their lifetime safety and serviceability. Deterministic design methods may not fully consider the uncertainties and risks related to climate change compared to risk-based design models. The latter approach considers the future risks and uncertainties linked to climate and environmental changes, thus ensuring infrastructure sustainability. This study pioneers a Hybrid 3D Hydrodynamic Monte Carlo Simulation (HMCS) Model to improve the reliability-based design of submarine pipelines, incorporating the effects of climate change. Current design approaches may follow deterministic methods, which may not systematically account for climate change’s comprehensive uncertainties and risks. Similarly, traditional design codes often follow a deterministic approach, lacking in the comprehensive integration of dynamic environmental factors such as wind, waves, currents, and geotechnical conditions, and may not adequately handle the uncertainties, including the long-term effects of climate change. Nowadays, most countries are developing new design codes to modify the risk levels for climate change’s effects, such as sea-level rises, changes in precipitation, or changes in the frequency/intensity of winds/storms/waves in coastal and marine designs. Our model may help these efforts by integrating a comprehensive risk-based approach, utilizing a 3D hydrodynamic model to correlate diverse environmental factors through Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The hybrid model can promise the sustainability of marine infrastructure by adapting to future environmental changes and uncertainties. Including such advanced methodologies in the design, codes are encouraged to reinforce the resilience of maritime structures in the climate change era. The present design codes should inevitably be reviewed according to climate change effects, and the hybrid risk-based design model proposed in this research should be included in codes to ensure the reliability of maritime structures. The HMCS model represents a significant advancement over existing risk models by incorporating comprehensive environmental factors, utilizing advanced simulation techniques, and explicitly addressing the impacts of climate change. This innovative approach ensures the development of more resilient and sustainable maritime infrastructure capable of withstanding future environmental uncertainties.

Adaptation strategies are responses from fishermen and fishing methods undertaken to obtain better results in fisheries activities. This strategy is believed to be a way to survive and can compete with other fishermen. On fishing communities, patterns of adaptation to adjust to the physical environment of marine ecosystems and the surrounding social environment. For people who work in the middle of the ocean, the ocean is the physical environment hazards. In many ways working in the marine environment laden with risk. Because fishermen are hunting for fish work, the results can not be determined certainty, everything is almost completely speculative. This study uses a mix of qualitative predominantly and quantitative less dominant. Qualitative methods are used to obtain in-depth information and coastal environmental change adaptation strategies Sibolga shore fishermen. Quantitative methods are used to obtain information characteristics of respondents fishing with size 87 samples taken from 65 households fisherman outboard motor boats and 22 fishing boats without motors households. Quantitative methods are also used to obtain data on changes in coastal environments. The analysis in the combined analysis methods using triangulation. Coastal environmental changes that occur are physical changes due to coastal Sibolga hoarding, residential additions and construction of buildings that affect the marine ecosystem fisheries; extent of decline of coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass beds caused, and a decline in quality of sea water in the surrounding waters Sibolga. Adaptation strategies Sibolga shore fishing can be divided into three aspects, namely social, economic and fishing techniques. Social adaptation strategy consists of social networks, mobilizing role of family members, changes in fishing group. Economic adaptation strategy consists of adding new gear, diversification of employment and capital management fishing. Adaptation strategies fishing technique consists of raising engine capacity ships, the use of technology, further the fishing area, adding to sea long, deepening the depth of fishing and the use of fishing tools. Keywords : Adaptation strategies fishermen, environmental change, coastal .

Climate change risks to coastal communities may overwhelm current management strategies. The emergence of nature‐based solutions could provide alternative approaches for climate adaptation; however, studies on their public acceptability are limited. This research focuses on the human dimensions of nature‐based coastal adaptation solutions. The research sought to understand the kind of environmental changes participants were experiencing in their coastal communities of Nova Scotia and what management responses they observed being taken, if any. Online focus groups were held with coastal property owners in Nova Scotia to understand how they assess coastal risks and four approaches to nature‐based coastal adaptation: living shorelines, accommodation, retreat, and dyke realignment to make space for wetland restoration. Results revealed ongoing trust in traditional hard‐line approaches, but also interest in knowing more about nature‐based options. There was general support for living shorelines, albeit with scepticism; a concern that accommodation is just a “band‐aid” approach; resistance to retreat, despite general recognition of its future utility; and a lack of understanding of dyke realignment. The successful implementation of nature‐based coastal adaptation approaches will require more evidence of their viability, better options for financing them, and engagement with communities around the best‐fit alternatives for them.

Background and problem definition: Climate change impacts and the imperative for adaptation trackingClimate change is a major societal challenge, with its devastating impacts increasingly being felt worldwide.Extreme weather events and environmental changes attributable to fluctuations in climatic conditions have widespread impacts, including altering ecosystems, reducing agricultural production, and increasing the prevalence of pests and diseases, with significant economic, social, and ecological consequences (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2022d).Climate change impacts are evident in the livestock sector.After four years of shifts in the rainy seasons and drought in the Horn of Africa, by 2022, close to nine million livestock had died, adversely impacting livestock keepers' food security, incomes, and countries' economic stability (OCHA, 2022).As temperatures continue to rise, it is estimated that in the next 60 years, annual losses in global cattle production could reach 40 billion US Dollars due to heat stress on livestock (Ericksen et al., 2022).Since the livestock sector plays a crucial role in national economies and livelihoods, state and non-state actors continue to adopt measures to respond to the impacts of climate change.Such measures include adjustments in farm practices such as water harvesting and storage, feed production and conservation, and diversification of livelihood options (Mubiru et al., 2018;Rojas-Downing et al., 2017).In terms of policy efforts, more than a third of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) identify the livestock sector as one of the areas where adaptation is desperately needed (Rose et al., 2021).In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, the three countries central to this dissertation, the livestock sector is also prominently featured in multiple national policies, such as national adaptation plans and strategies, as well as in subnational and sectoral plans relevant to climate change adaptation, highlighting a wide range of adaptation priorities (Ashley, 2019).As such, systematically assessing progress on efforts to respond to current and future impacts of climate change across and within sectors and populations, across space and time, is essential for understanding if adaptation is taking place and its effects.This assessment process is referred to as adaptation tracking (Berrang-Ford et al., 2019;Ford et al., 2013) 1 .1 Although the process of monitoring and reporting on adaptation is also commonly referred to as adaptation Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), I prefer to use the term adaptation tracking to distinguish the process from the traditional M&E which is often associated with interventions monitoring and evaluation within programs and projects.Adaptation tracking involves broader temporal and spatial scales that go beyond the typical time and spatial boundedness of programs and projects.Chapter 1 Adaptation tracking can serve multiple interrelated objectives.First, tracking adaptation is useful for collating information on the adaptation efforts of different actors, thus supporting the management of knowledge on adaptation, sharing of lessons through the documentation of adaptation strategies and the conditions under which they are effective, and cooperation between actors (Craft & Fisher, 2018; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) & United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2023; Leiter, 2015).For example, Kenya has established a system for monitoring the implementation of climate-smart agriculture by state and non-state actors, including adaptation actions in the livestock sector, thus allowing the government to keep track of ongoing interventions and further inform efforts to mainstream climate-smart agriculture (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) & United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2023).Secondly, by assessing adaptation progress against quantitatively or qualitatively defined adaptation milestones, adaptation tracking can support accountability across scales.Accountability can be demanded by a wide range of actors, from showing the utilization and effectiveness of donor support to a government showing how it is fulfilling adaptation mandates to its constituents and its peers within the global climate governance regime (Ford et al., 2013; Hammill & Dekens, 2014; Jernnäs, 2023).Thirdly, in supporting the generation of and access to information on adaptation progress, adaptation tracking is crucial for adaptation planning and decision-making.Ideally, evaluating adaptation outcomes should indicate the adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation efforts considering current and future climate risks, thus providing the basis for adjusting adaptation plans and priorities across global, national, and sub-national scales (Craft & Fisher, 2018; Tompkins et al., 2018).This rationale is reiterated by countries in their stated intent to track adaptation progress nationally and globally (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) & United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2023; Jernnäs, 2023).In tandem with the continued rise of adaptation in the global climate agenda (Lesnikowski et al., 2017; Persson, 2019), the need to track adaptation progress at aggregated scales has increasingly received attention (Leiter, 2022).For instance, the Cancun Adaptation Framework, which was adopted in 2011, laid the foundation for an expanded scope of reporting under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to include adaptation (Ellis & Moarif, 2015).In response, countries submitted National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Communications and have committed to establishing adaptation monitoring systems (Ellis & Moarif, 2015; United Nations Environment Progrmme (UNEP), 2021).The livestock keepers' vulnerability and adaptive capacities (Marty et al., 2022; Ng'ang'a & Crane, 2020).Therefore, it is crucial to clarify definitions of concepts and operationalize them in a way that allows adaptation tracking to capture dynamics within and across local, sub-national, and national scales.Cognizant of the dynamic and persistent nature of climate risks and the continuous need to adapt, Dilling et al., (2019) recommend the evaluation of adaptation success by assessing changes in the capacity of people and systems to adapt.Whilst this may be a more nuanced measure of adaptation potential, there is high uncertainty in evaluating adaptive capacity, including the intricate link between adaptive capacity and the likelihood or desire to adapt (Adger & Vincent, 2005).Similarly, what constitutes adaptation success is still very much debated.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently defined successful adaptation in relation to "… actions and policies that effectively and substantially reduce processes envisioned by the Paris Agreement (Leiter, 2022).Besides, while defining a universal reporting framework and indicators will be useful for taking stock of global adaptation progress, it is unclear how they would reflect the context-specificity of adaptation priorities and experiences or how information from a global assessment would be used to guide adaptation planning within countries meaningfully.Considering scholarly evidence of the crucial role of national contexts in the success of global goal setting and monitoring mechanisms (e.g. , Hickmann et al., 2022;Morita et al., 2020), understanding how to align adaptation tracking across local, sub-national, national, regional, and global scales is an important research agenda (see also Beauchamp, 2023;Leiter, 2021).For the livestock sector, this means examining how to develop adaptation tracking methodologies that capture spatial variations and aligning with how the sector is administratively organized in each country. Empirical challengesData availability and quality is yet another challenge pertinent to adaptation tracking.Although the Paris Agreement envisages the use of multiple sources of input such as national communications, biennial transparency reports, adaptation communications, and reports from non-state actors, data comparability, completeness, and coherence are prerequisites for understanding adaptation progress across space and time (Ford, Berrang-Ford, Biesbroek, et al., 2015; Ford & Berrang-Ford, 2016;Olhoff et al., 2018;Qi, 2022).This means having data that is compatible in terms of how it is produced, has wide coverage, and is representative.The data issues tie back to whether adaptation tracking is based on standardized methodologies and indicators with assessments being undertaken centrally versus a bottom-up approach that builds on contextualized assessments that are integrated to provide insights into overall progress (Gao & Christiansen, 2023).In relation to the former approach, efforts to take stock of adaptation based on existing information, such as national communications and published literature, show that despite variations in the availability of evidence of adaptation within and across countries and sectors, there is limited information available, making it difficult to sufficiently assess and compare adaptation progress across space and time (Craft & Fisher, 2018;Ford, Berrang-Ford, Bunce, et al., 2015; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2022d;Lesnikowski et al., 2015;Tompkins et al., 2018).Other approaches, such as using expert judgment to Research questionsThis dissertation aims to build knowledge on how to design adaptation tracking.Cognizant of the challenges inherent in adaptation tracking, existing knowledge gaps, and the key issues espoused by the theoretical approach adopted for this research, the dissertation answers the following overall research question: How does the design of adaptation tracking benefit from complementing them and allowing the contribution of different actors in informing the design of adaptation tracking.Research question 3 (RQ3): How does the co-production of the TAiLS tool shape its sensitivity to existing institutional structures of knowledge production and use and the diversity of stakeholder perspectives?(Chapter 5) This research question builds on RQ1 and RQ2.It draws on insights from the consultative design of the TAiLS tool to explore the value of a co-production approach in the design of adaptation tracking.In answering the research question, I pay attention to how co-production supports the design of tools that can be embedded within the existing institutional structures, thus catalyzing linkages between local, sub-national and national scales.I also consider how to integrate adaptation experiences and priorities of different actors, such as livestock keepers, government officials, and researchers, while developing a tool that can feasibly be used to track adaptation over broad temporal and spatial scales. Research approach and methodsThere are three notable aspects of this dissertation's research design.First, this research uses a comparative case study approach whereby equivalent research was conducted across cases, thus supporting an in-depth study of similarities and differences within and between the cases along the various research questions (Bartlett & Vavrus, 2017;do Amaral, 2022).By paying attention to configurations within and between cases, this approach allowed me to study and reflect on the implications of the specifics within each country and the differences between countries for adaptation tracking.However, cases do not exist naturally since their boundaries are "constructed" to suit the research objectives (Carter & Sealey, 2009;do Amaral, 2022;Lund, 2014).Therefore, in line with a constructivist stance, I acknowledge my role in creating the cases.This research focuses on selected components of the livestock sectors of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, with data collection activities at the farm level across four livestock production systems as well as at national and sub-national levels of government (Figure 1.1).The study sites were selected based on the differences and similarities that exist between them.For instance, although Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda have comparable structures that govern the livestock sector, there are notable differences in their institutional structures which can partially be attributed to their respective governance systems or cultural context (

Working from a visual cultural approach that interrogates issues of visibility and visuality, this article theorizes how coastal residents represent their own observations and experiences of environmental change through photography and storytelling. We present results from an exploratory photovoice study in Maine, where participants framed change as an inevitable, manageable, or deconstructive process of social-ecological interaction. These results point to multiple, often contradictory ways participants understand and construct their environment and reveal the impact of their views on the perceived availability, desirability, and feasibility of community responses to change. In turn, the article presents critical implications for communication and dialogue about community development, resource management, and coastal adaptation.

Toward an adaptive monitoring design for leakage risk – Closing the loop of monitoring and modeling

A synthetic DNA based approach to design of adaptive systems

A multi-objective adaptive dynamic programming method is proposed in this paper to solve the optimal control with multi-objective performance indices. The multi-objective performance indices are commonly used in engineering fields. In the paper, vector-valued performance indices are transformed into a scalar by vector's 2-norm. Multi-objective adaptive dynamic programming is derived from adaptive critic design and neural network. Heuristic Dynamic Programming (HDP) is a member of Adaptive Dynamic Programming. This method is implemented with Neural Network, so it does not require an accurate model of the plant. The dynamics of the system is learned from the history data, and from the data of real time control process. The proposed method updates the controller's parameters periodically, so the control law can be updated with the change of environment. It solves the problem step by step and optimizes the multi-objective performance indices in real time. The simulation shows the effectiveness of the method in the excitation control of synchronous generators.

With fixed emitted waveforms, traditional radars could not achieve optimal performance when the target and environment change. Cognitive radar can apperceive changing information outside, feed back to the transmitter intelligently, and then adjust waveforms to achieve better performance. Therefore, cognitive radar can fit the fast changing environment of modern battlefield better than the traditional radar. The advantage of OFDM signals for cognitive radar is analyzed in this paper firstly. And then, a new architecture of OFDM cognitive radar is proposed. The crucial component - adaptive waveform design for the OFDM cognitive radar is addressed to solve the key problem of “learning” and “feedback” in cognitive radar. The main idea is to establish the “estimation-optimization” mechanism to handle the changing of the target and the surrounding environment. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of OFDM cognitive radar is better than that of traditional radar.

Quickly recovering and securing the advanced vehicle performance by changing structures, upgrading equipment become a key point to win the modern war. The armored vehicle is a complicated coupling system and the structure components are closely connected. Thus the change design is a complicated coupling system design problem. We provide the-state-of-art of the change design in response to environmental changes, and discuss the key technologies of armored vehicle adaptive change design responding to complex environment (AVACDCE). We also discuss design strategies and principles, change design decision and environmental adaptability evaluation, structural conflict elimination, performance optimization and layout optimization design in the limited space, and interface and assembly. In additional, we provide the design flow of the AVACDCE. Our studies can provide support for the armored vehicle adaptive change design responding to the complicated environment.

In 1997, the city of North Vancouver, British Columbia developed Adaptable Design Guidelines for housing to support aging-in-place for older tenants. This article reports the first qualitative evaluation of those adaptable design features since those guidelines were implemented. The study used a qualitative methodology to explore the elderly tenants’ use and satisfaction of the adaptable design features in the housing units and environmental changes made by those tenants. Key qualitative categories that emerged from the interviews were design preferences and environmental modifications. Findings from this study can inform future revisions of the guidelines and demonstrate what needs to be done in environmental design of seniors’ housing that can foster functional independence.

This article reports on the presentations and discussion from the working group on "Influences on Sedentary Behavior and Interventions To Reduce Sedentary Behavior" as part of the Sedentary Behavior: Identifying Research Priorities workshop. Interventions were discussed in the context of targeting sedentary behavior (SB) as a concept distinct from physical activity. It was recommended that interventions targeting SB should consider a life course perspective, a position predicated on the assumption that SB is age and life stage dependent. In addition, targeting environments where individuals have high exposure to SB--such as workplace sitting--could benefit from new technology (e.g., computer-based prompting to stand or move), environmental changes (e.g., active workstations), policies targeting reduced sedentary time (e.g., allowing employees regular desk breaks), or by changing norms surrounding prolonged sitting (e.g., standing meetings). There are limited data about the minimal amount of SB change required to produce meaningful health benefits. In addition to developing relevant scientific and public health definitions of SB, it is important to further delineate the scope of health and quality-of-life outcomes associated with reduced SB across the life course and to clarify what behavioral alternatives to SB can be used to optimize health gains. SB interventions will benefit from having more clarity about the potential physiological and behavioral synergies with current physical activity recommendations, developing multilevel interventions aimed at reducing SB across all life phases and contexts, harnessing relevant and effective strategies to extend the reach of interventions to all sectors of society, as well as applying state-of-the-science adaptive designs and methods to accelerate advances in the science of SB interventions.

Design and operation of a distributed information system have to consider a dynamic environment of requirements and opportunities. An adaptive approach for design and management of distributed information systems is proposed that allows that the original design of the infrastructure can be modified as experience is gained and as the operating environment changes. Specific requirements for design and management in such a distributed environment are identified. An architecture of tools and facilities in a distributed information system is described which supports the adaptive design and management approach — consequently integrating design and management activities into the running system.

Many engineering systems are required to operate under changing operating conditions. A special class of systems called adaptive systems has been proposed in the literature to achieve high performance under changing environments. Adaptive systems acquire this powerful feature by allowing their design configurations to change with operating conditions. In the optimization of the adaptive systems, designers are often required to select (i) adaptive and (ii) nonadaptive (or fixed) design variables of the design configuration. Generally, the selection of these variables and the optimization of adaptive systems are performed sequentially, thus being a source of suboptimality. In this paper, we propose the Selection-Integrated Optimization (SIO) methodology, which integrates the two key processes: (1) the selection of the adaptive and fixed design variables and (2) the optimization of the adaptive system, thereby eliminating a significant source of suboptimality from adaptive system optimization problems. A major challenge to integrating these two key processes is the selection of appropriate fixed and adaptive design variables, which is discrete in nature. We propose the Variable-Segregating Mapping-Function (VSMF), which overcomes this challenge by progressively approximating the discreteness in the design variable selection process. This simple yet effective approach allows the SIO methodology to integrate the selection and optimization processes and helps avoid one significant source of suboptimality from the optimization procedure. The SIO methodology finds its applications in a variety of other engineering fields, such as product family optimization. However, in this paper, we limit the scope of our discussion to adaptive system optimization. The effectiveness of the SIO methodology is demonstrated by designing a new air-conditioning system called Active Building Envelope (ABE) system.

Many engineering systems are required to operate under changing operating conditions. A special class of systems called adaptive systems have been proposed in the literature to achieve high performance under changing environments. Adaptive systems acquire this powerful feature by allowing their design configuration to change with operating conditions. In the optimization of the adaptive systems, designers are often required to select (i) adaptive and (ii) non-adaptive (or fixed) design variables of the design configuration. Generally, the selection of these variables, and the optimization of adaptive systems are performed sequentially, thus leaving a likelihood of a sub-optimal design. In this paper, we propose the Selection-Integrated Optimization (SIO) methodology that integrates the two key processes: (1) the selection of the adaptive and fixed design variables, and (2) the optimization of the adaptive system, thereby leading to an optimum design. A major challenge to integrating these two key processes is the selection of the number of fixed and adaptive design variables, which is discrete in nature. We propose the Variable-Segregating Mapping-Function (VSMF) that overcomes this roadblock by progressively approximating the discreteness in the design variable selection process. This simple yet effective approach allows the SIO methodology to integrate the selection and optimization processes, and help avoid one significant source of sub-optimality from typical optimization formulations. The SIO methodology finds its applications in a variety of other engineering fields as well, such as product family optimization. However, in this paper, we limit the scope of our discussion to adaptive system optimization. The effectiveness of the SIO methodology is demonstrated by optimally designing a new air-conditioning system called Active Building Envelope (ABE) System.