Dealing with future risks in the Netherlands: the National Security Strategy and the National Risk Assessment

Abstract

Threats to our safety and security are continuously changing and are becoming increasingly intertwined. Relatively minor threats can, through interdependencies, lead to societal disruption. In order to classify potential future risks, threats, and hazards and enhance adequate preparation and capacity building, the Dutch government approved a National Security Strategy. This all-hazard strategy includes both natural hazards and hazards caused by technical failure and malicious threats. Using this Strategy, the government is able to continually improve its overview of risks and to determine priorities regarding the allocation of resources for the prevention of, preparation for, and response to disasters. Analysis is performed using a methodology called the National Risk Assessment (NRA). In this methodology, future threats and hazards are described in scenarios, which are assessed in terms of likelihood and impact using a uniform scoring method and are therefore rendered comparable. The impact criteria reflect the five vital interests of the Netherlands: territorial security, physical safety (public health), economic security, ecological security, and social and political stability. The NRA is produced by an expert network consisting of research institutes, universities, civil services, public service corporations, and consultancy firms. On the basis of the NRA, a capabilities analysis is performed. This analysis assesses whether the country (government, private sector, and civilians) has sufficient capabilities (people, material, knowledge, skills, procedures) at its disposal to adequately deal with the threat, and considers which capabilities should be strengthened or developed. For example, the risk assessment of the occurrence of a pandemic flu showed that it could have crippling effects for the continuous functioning of critical infrastructure processes. As a response, Government and critical infrastructure companies developed business continuity plans for pandemic situations.