De Onzichtbare Scheidingsgolf : Een analyse van relatieontbinding van samenwonenden en gehuwden in België

Abstract

  Abstract :  This article studies relationship break‐up among married and cohabiting couples, based on the Belgian data ofthe Crossroads Bank of Social Security. The results are based on a sample of couples marrying for the first timeor starting to cohabit for the first time between 1999 and 2001. The sample is followed over time until 2013. Thepurpose of this study is to gain insight in relationship break‐up of married and cohabiting couples using registerdata. Given the fact that cohabiting couples are underestimated in official statistics because these only use offi‐cially registered partnerships (e.g. legal cohabitation), cohabiting couples are identified in this article on the basisof their LIPRO typology giving a more correct insight in relationship dynamics of cohabiting couples.The article looks at patterns of relationship dissolution with the aid of survival analysis and a discrete time eventhistory analysis for three relationship trajectories: marriages formed without premarital cohabitation, marriagesformed after a period of premarital cohabitation and cohabitations not (yet) converted into a marriage duringthe observation period. The results show that cohabiting couples not marrying during the observation period,have a much lower chance to be together after 14 years compared to the married couples. The differences be‐tween married couples with and without a period of unmarried cohabitation are more limited. Further, we findthat a break‐ups are more common among couples who start living together at an early age, start from a weakereconomic background or those that do not have children during the first four years. The association betweenrelationship break‐up and these background characteristics is similar among all three relationship trajectoriesstudied.