Dataset of Biodiversity Loss in Global Staple Food Trade, 1995-2022

The security and stability of the global food market are closely linked to the long-term healthy development of the global economy. This paper mainly examines the basic operational characteristics of the food market and the main development trends in food trade. The main research findings are as follows: (1) In terms of the global food supply structure, current supply fluctuations are increasing, demand is steadily growing, and food prices initially rise before declining; (2) The total volume of global food trade is continuously increasing, the concentration of exports may continue to rise, and the significance of major international grain merchants in global food trade is becoming increasingly prominent; (3) Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the stability of food supply, trade protectionism impacts the stability of food market trade, and fluctuations in global monetary policy affect the price stability of the food market. To address the various challenges and difficulties facing global food security, it is recommended that governments enhance macro-control of the food market, improve financial support for food trade, cultivate internationally competitive large-scale grain merchants, and strengthen international coordination of national food regulatory policies.

Global food trade is an integral part of the food system, and plays an important role in food security. Based on complex network analyses, this paper analyzed the global food trade network (FTN) and its evolution from 1992 to 2018. The results show that: (1) food trade relations have increased and global FTN is increasingly complex, efficient, and tighter. (2) Global food trade communities have become more stable and the trade network has evolved from “unipolar” to “multipolar”. (3) Over the nearly 30-year period, the core exporting countries have been stable and concentrated, while the core importing countries are relatively dispersed. The increasingly complex food trade network improves food availability and nutritional diversity; however, the food trade system, led by several large countries, has increased the vulnerability of some countries’ food systems and brings about unsafe factors, such as global natural disasters and political instability. It is supposed to establish a food security community to protect the global food trade market, address multiple risks, and promote global food security.

How to meet food demands with limited cropland has become a serious problem worldwide, especially in China. Global and national food trade can alleviate regional food unbalance among different countries or regions to some extent. The embedded virtual land also flows with food trade, and reasonable food trade can save global croplands and protect local ecosystems. Therefore, it is of great importance to study how trade influences land use as well as its associated environmental consequences. Recent studies have mainly focused on global food trade and its associated virtual land flow; however, only a few have focused on national food trade and its associated virtual land flow. Thus, this study aims to explore the domestic wheat trade and its associated virtual land flows in China during the period 2010–2015, based on the CHINAGRO model and previous studies. The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and its surrounding regions were the main producers and consumers of wheat and virtual wheat. Without wheat stocks and international wheat trade, the annual domestic wheat trade accounted for 16.43% of the total national wheat production in China. Anhui was the largest net exporter of wheat, followed by Henan, while the developed areas such as Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai were the main net importers. Additionally, as an important transfer region, Jiangsu was the largest exporter and importer of wheat virtual cropland, but it finally presented as a net exporter of wheat cropland. During this period, domestic wheat trade led to a total land savings of 2.62 Mha/a, accounting for 10.80% of Chinese wheat cropland. However, compared with the year 2010, Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan turned into wheat net importers in 2015, which was due to different reasons such as national agriculture polices and economic development. In addition, the net virtual cropland per capita has been greatly influenced by local economic development.

Agriculture, livestock, and fisheries significantly impact socioeconomic, environmental, and health dimensions at global level, ensuring food supply for growing populations whilst promoting economic welfare through international trade, employment, and income. Considering that bilateral food exchanges between countries represent exchanges of natural resources involved in food production (i.e., food imports are equivalent to savings of natural resources), the purpose of the study is to investigate the evolution of carbon and water footprints corresponding to the global food trade networks between 1986 and 2020. The research aims to identify potential associations between carbon and water footprints embedded in food trade and countries’ economic welfare. Complex network analysis was used to map countries’ positions within annual food trade networks, and countries’ metrics within networks were used to identify connections between participation in global trade of carbon and water footprints and economic welfare. The findings of the study show an increase in carbon and water footprints linked to global food exchanges between countries during the period. Furthermore, a country’s centrality within the network was linked to economic welfare, showing that countries with higher imports of carbon and water through global food trade derive economic benefits from participating in global trade. Global efforts towards transformations of food systems should prioritize sustainable development standards to ensure continued access to healthy sustainable diets for populations worldwide.

Four perspectives on water for global food production and international trade: incommensurable objectives and implications

There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to predict the future food landscape based on the dietary shift in developing countries, represented by China, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, under a 2030 urbanization scenario. The results show that the average global outputs of fish, meat, and dairy products increase by 0.26-2.85%, along with an expansion in their trade volume by 2.10-13.95%, by 2030. To ensure that dietary changes can be met in developing countries, Asia and America need to strengthen their positions with respect to global food production share, while Africa is developing to become a non-negligible growing force. Accordingly, globalized food trade is characterized by a centralized export and, conversely, by a decentralized import, clearly indicating an expanding net-import tendency in populous developing countries. These findings highlight the adaptation scheme of global food production and trade patterns under a 2030 urbanization scenario, as urbanization accelerates dietary change in developing countries.

Abstract. The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g. nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g. due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global food trade, focusing on wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice, accounting for about 60 % of global calorie intake. Our findings indicate that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, with soot emissions equivalent to a major nuclear war between India and Pakistan (37 Tg), could severely disrupt trade, causing most countries to lose the vast majority of their food imports (50 %–100 % decrease), primarily due to the main exporting countries being heavily affected. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss with a comparable impact on yields as the abrupt sunlight reduction has a more homogeneous distribution of yield declines, resulting in most countries losing up to half of their food imports (25 %–50 % decrease). Thus, our analysis shows that both scenarios could significantly impact the food trade. However, the abrupt sunlight reduction scenario is likely more disruptive than global catastrophic infrastructure loss regarding the effects of yield reductions on food trade. This study underscores the vulnerabilities of the global food trade network to catastrophic risks and the need for enhanced preparedness.

The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g., nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g., due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global food trade, focusing on wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice, accounting for about 60% of global calorie intake. Our findings indicate that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, with soot emissions equivalent to a major nuclear war between India and Pakistan (37 Tg), could severely disrupt trade, causing most countries to lose the vast majority of their food imports (50-100 % decrease), primarily due to the main exporting countries being heavily affected. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss of the same magnitude as the abrupt sunlight reduction has a more homogeneous distribution of yield declines, resulting in most countries losing up to half of their food imports (25-50 % decrease). Thus, our analysis shows that both scenarios could significantly impact the food trade. However, the abrupt sunlight reduction scenario is likely more disruptive than global catastrophic infrastructure loss regarding the effects of yield reductions on food trade. This study underscores the vulnerabilities of the global food trade network to catastrophic risks and the need for enhanced preparedness.

As the ripple effects of climate change accelerate through the complex and interdependent global food systems, the widely accepted paradigm that a country’s food security increases with national wealth will be challenged. This threat is particularly relevant for countries that have limited capacity for domestic food production and that rely heavily on imports to meet demand for food. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are expected to increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity in many food-exporting countries, causing food price instability and threatening rural livelihoods and sustainable food security. The methodology employed for this analysis was the linkage of The Global Trade, Assistance, and Production (GTAP) Data Base with the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) IMPACT modelling Framework. For this analysis, GTAP data are used for identifying current bilateral trade dynamics, and projections on climate change impacts on food production, demand, and trade for 2050 from IFPRI’s ‘IMPACT Projections of Food Production, Consumption, and Hunger to 2050, with and without climate change: Extended Country-level Results for 2019’ are used. Drawing from the model outputs, a new index was developed to assess the food security vulnerability due to climate change impacts on food trade. In phase 1, Food security was limited to six main food commodity groups: Grains, Rice, Fruits and Vegetable, Oil Seeds, Meat and Milk, and Processed Foods. This paper draws from the IMPACT results for 2050 based on the RCP 8.4 emission scenario and the 3.0 Shared Socio-economic Pathway which shows significant impacts on World Market Prices, total global food production, and trade.

ABSTRACTA key feature of the contemporary global economy is the unevenness of food production and trade. The problem of food dependency and the system’s lack of capacity to accommodate global demand continue to haunt the global food trade and capitalism in general. This paper shows that the global food trade emerged as a solution to the problem of food in capitalist development; however, this solution so far has been clearly limited in its scope and capacity. By exploring the three major global food crises since the mid-nineteenth century, I trace the historical forces behind the crises and the restructuring of the global food trade and production. Finally, I discuss the future of food in global capitalism and the ways of better feeding the world population, especially those in the third world.

Rapid globalization of the agrifood industry has important impacts on international trade and quality management (QM). Likewise, the European Union has negotiated a series of bilateral free trade agreements. Of note was the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the United States of America, where the debate focused on the mutual recognition and harmonization of quality standards, especially for agricultural and food products. This topic offered the mainstream media excellent substances for coverage. This paper explores German print media, television, and radio on the importance of international quality standards in the agrifood sectors in light of the TTIP. A quantitative and qualitative empirical content analysis was performed to investigate media reporting regarding (a) it is scientific character, (b) the use of the term “quality standards” of the agrifood industry, and (c) the reporting on the agrifood industry and QM linked with TTIP, focused on harmonization. The results showed that interrelations between QM and global trade were not presented to recipients in-depth. A trend toward information asymmetries in recipient’s knowledge is indicated. The study addresses recommendations for future collaborations between media, policy-makers, and further cooperation in the mutual recognition and harmonization of quality standards and control procedures within global trade.

Quantified components of the global food system are used to assess long-term global food security under a series of socio-economic, epidemic normalization and climate change scenarios. Here, we evaluate the global food security including the global farming system as well as the global food trade, reserve and loss systems from 1961 to 2019, and analyze their temporal and spatial characteristics by using the global food vulnerability (GFV) model. The spatio–temporal patterns of the vulnerability of the global food system were consistent with the GFSI. As food production and consumption vary greatly in different countries which have continued for a long time, food exports from many developed agricultural countries have compensated for food shortages in most countries (about 120 net grain-importing countries). As a result, many countries have relied heavily on food imports to maintain their domestic food supplies, ultimately causing the global food trade stability to have an increasing impact on the food security of most countries. The impact of global food trade on global food security increased from 9% to 17% during 1961–2019, which has increased the vulnerability of the global food system. The food damage in the United States, Russia, China, and India has varied significantly, and global cereal stocks have fluctuated even more since 2000. From 1961 to 2019, the food system security of some Nordic countries significantly improved, while the food system security of most African countries significantly deteriorated. Most countries with high food insecurity are located in Africa and South Asia. In order to cope with extreme events, these countries need to strengthen and improve their own food production and storage systems, which will help the World Food and Agriculture Organization to formulate relevant food policies and maintain sustainable development.

International food trade poses food safety risks through the collateral transport of contaminants that are harmful to human health. Persistent organic pollutants, such as the polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener PCB-153, are consumed via fish intake traded globally, but the estimated daily intake and risk to human health are poorly understood. Using a food trade pathway model, a global-scale atmospheric persistent organic pollutant transport model and UN Global Comtrade data, high PCB exposure was identified in Western Europe. Marine fish exported from Europe to Sub-Saharan African countries account for 84% of PCB-153 consumer exposure. In contrast, European fish consumers face reduced exposure to PCB-153 by consuming marine fish imported from countries where PCB-153 concentrations are low. People consuming aquaculture-farmed salmon fed with marine ingredients from PCB-153-contaminated seawaters face a higher PCB exposure. Our findings demonstrate that global fish trade can exacerbate PCB-153 exposure in regions where environmental PCB-153 levels are low. This approach demonstrates how the exposure to harmful food contaminants distributed through global food trade can be predicted and quantified. Food safety is jeopardized by the global trade in contaminated foods. Huang et al. demonstrate how consumer exposure to the toxic chemical polychlorinated biphenyl-153 (PCB-153) can be modelled and identify regions with high consumer PCB-153 exposure resulting from imported fish consumption.

Geopolitical tensions are increasingly affecting global trade in food and essential agronomic inputs such as fertilizers. This imperils food production and security in import-dependent countries. Major disruptions, such as armed conflicts or the formation of isolated political blocs, are expected to further disrupt bilateral trade as countries tend to save resources for their own populations or because of the destruction of trade infrastructure. Countries not directly involved in such conflicts may also choose to stop exporting and start stockpiling products as a precautionary measure. This will create a situation where the global trade network will be fragmented.This study estimates the consequences of such trade disruptions on fertilizer supply and food security through network analysis and statistical modeling using global data on food and fertilizer trade, fertilizer inputs, and crop yields. We consider several hypothetical scenarios, including a military conflict between major military alliances, political separation into major (emerging) blocs, economic scenario, where the world is divided into Global North and Global South, and stochastic scenarios that model probable division into groups based on the structure and intensity of historical trade between partners through community detection in graphs. A first prototype considers major staple crops: rice, wheat, maize, potato, and cassava.The results demonstrate that in the event of a political, military, or economic separation that disrupts trade, Non-Aligned and Global South countries will experience dramatic reductions in the availability of certain critical crops and fertilizers, with losses of more than 25 percent compared to uninterrupted supplies in 2022. In the military scenario, Non-Aligned nations will be most sensitive to the decline in maize, wheat, and fertilizer, while in the political scenario, access to maize, potatoes, rice, and wheat will be problematic. The economic scenario shows drops in availability of maize, rice, cassava, wheat, and fertilizer for the Global South block. Military alliances, political blocs, and Global North countries have limited supplies of at least two critical crops in every scenario, but their losses are less disruptive (excluding cassava, which is expected to decline by 95 percent in the Global North). For all groups of countries, the drops in food supply are compounded by a further reduction in expected agricultural output due to the loss of fertilizer supplies. Stochastic network simulations generally provide more balanced scenarios as they are based on interwoven historical trade data. Further research will refine the results using process-based crop modeling and explore scenarios for improving the resilience of the global food system.

The global food and agricultural trade network is crucial for food security. Shocks such as those posed by extreme weather events, conflicts, pandemics, and economic crises can test the resilience of the trade network to the sudden interruption of trade flows. Depending on the level of connectivity in the trade network and its structure, such shocks have the potential to propagate through the entire network and can affect countries’ food availability and variety. This paper contributes to the literature on food and agricultural trade networks in two main ways: (1) understanding the global trade network as a complex system that can be affected by and responds to shocks, we define and operationalize its resilience as a multidimensional concept, which is shaped by the interdependencies in the network and their structure; and (2) applying techniques from network analysis to examine the evolution of three dimensions of resilience within the global food and agricultural trade network between 1995 and 2019. The main findings show that, between 1995 and 2007, trade connectivity among countries increased. Overall, this bolstered countries’ and the network's resilience to trade shocks. However, vulnerabilities persisted in terms of ensuring sufficient product variety and quantity. Adding to these vulnerabilities, trade integration stalled in the second half of the series, pointing to a slight tendency towards trade disintegration and potentially lower resilience of countries to trade shocks already in 2019.