Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice. However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance. To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions. We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.
Highlights
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in China in late 2019, and rapidly spread around the world
The German reporting obligation of all positive COVID-19 tests to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and the fact that these data are published on the district level makes it possible to model the epidemic at this comparatively high spatial resolution
It can be seen that the calibrated national SEIRD-model (1)–(5) with the variable contact rates can be used to reproduce the epidemic in Germany
Summary
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in China in late 2019, and rapidly spread around the world. By March 2020, COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization [1]. The pandemic has resulted in devastating consequences to life, health, and national economies. The novelty of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, coupled with the comparative lack of clinical research on coronaviruses in general, has left Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as masks, lockdowns, and social distancing measures, as the main weapons in the fight against COVID-19. NPIs have so far played an important role in modulating the dynamics of the pandemic [2].
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