Abstract

GULFCAST is a forecast system for the Gulf Stream meander and ring region consisting of a dynamical open-ocean model and an observational network comprised of remotely sensed sea-surface temperatures (and recently, sea-surface height) and critically located air-dropped expendable bathythermographs (AXBTs). We present here the case study of a real-time forecast system out for 2 weeks in the Spring of 1986 during the development of GULFCAST methodology. The AXBT data from successive flights were assimilated and a frontal location was ‘nowcast’ and forecast within the error bounds of navigation, AXBT sampling and model resolution during a multiple ring-stream interaction event.

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