Dam Safety Evaluation Based on Multiple Linear Regression and Numerical Simulation

Abstract

The Shimenzi roller-compacted concrete arch dam was built in a soft-rock region with faults and intercalations. The abutments are divided into several potential sliding wedges by major faults and intercalations. In this study, the safety of the dam was analyzed on the basis of measurements of the displacements, strains, and stresses in the concrete. A hydrostatic, temperature, time-displacement model was used to quantify the contributions of water level variations, temperature in the concrete, and time effects, to the dam’s upstream–downstream displacements. A multiple linear regression was used to train and test the relationships among the hydrostatic conditions (temperature, time, and displacements) and to evaluate the dam deformation characteristics and stability. Numerical models of dam stresses were then established and calibrated, which allow quantitative evaluation of dam safety by using statistical methods. The results indicated that (1) the dam is currently in an elastic deformation state; (2) the contribution of temperature to dam displacement differs with elevation; and (3) the state of stress is below the limits of material strength.