Dam failure risk factor analysis using AHP method

Abstract

Bukit Merah Dam is Malaysia’s oldest dam and the risk of failure probability is rising as the dam aging physically. The number and magnitude of maximal precipitations caused by changes in weather have been increasing and directly increase the likelihood of developing a dam failure. Risk analysis usually incorporates the theory of probability and the mathematical statistics to obtain the risk of dam failure within the framework of dam safety. However, the experience and judgment of the dam experts are not considered in determining the risk of dams failure. This study aims to determine the risk factor of Bukit Merah Dam through the Delphi technique and to assess the risk factor impacts due to dam failures using the AHP method. There are three risk factors or criteria highlighted in this research which are structural, human and natural. According to the results for the structural criteria, the priority is seepage where the final weight is 70.1%. For the human criteria, the priority is operational mismanagement with the final weight of 58.46%, 31.45%. Lastly, for the natural criteria, the priority is flooding from high precipitation with a final weight of 48.57%. From the consistency ratio, the CR for structural factor is 0.041 while for the human factor is 0.014 and for natural criteria is 0.019. As all the CR value for this criteria is less than 0.1, all participants’ evaluations about dam failure criteria are consistent. In conclusion, the dam operators need to be more vigilant to seepage, operational mismanagement and flooding from high precipitation factors of failure for Bukit Merah Dam.