Abstract
For manufacturers of vehicles the estimation of probability of occurrence in the market of sales of negativedynamics is actual, including on the basis of the information on cycles of development of branch. In the presentpaper the hypothesis of presence of cyclicity in development of branch on manufacture of vehicles is proved.The conclusion about existence of superlong-term cycles (waves) which are continuation of Kondratev longwave’s time for completion of the superbig cycle of branch on manufacture of vehicles is made.
Highlights
The world industry for the production of vehicles is an important component of the global economy
With respect to the industry for the production of vehicles can talk about very large-scale cycles with a lifetime of [146-156] years. These extra-large cycles have an internal structure, which consists of large cycles the development of national industries for the production of vehicles that are at different stages of development and are often in opposition
It is reasonable to assume the existence of similar extra-large cycles in the other branches of the global industry
Summary
The world industry for the production of vehicles is an important component of the global economy. According to OICA, aggregate indicators of the industry for the production of vehicles allow to equate it to the sixth largest economy in the world. "Direct" number of employees in the automotive industry is more than 8 million people about 5% of all those employed in the sphere of material production. The number of employees indirectly related to the production of vehicles around the world more than 50 million people. According to OICA, fees and taxes on vehicle manufacturers in 26 industrialized countries amounted to 430 billion Bole Euros per year. Negative trends in the global economy reduced sales of vehicles, leading to a drop in the profitability of production, and with significant and long-term negative dynamics - to stagnation in the industry and the bankruptcy of vehicle manufacturers
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