Cycle threshold of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR as a driver of retesting

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR is a critical and, at times, limited resource. Frequent Retesting of patients may strain testing infrastructure unduly. Recommendations that include cycle threshold (Ct) cutoffs may incentivize early retesting when the Ct value is reported. We aimed to investigate patterns of retesting in association with initial Ct-values. We performed a retrospective analysis of RT-PCR results (including Ct-values) for patients from whom ≥ 2 samples were collected within 14 days, the first of which had to be positive. We calculated absolute and baseline-corrected kinetics of Ct-values over time, as well as the median initial Ct-values in dependence of the timing of the first retesting and the time until RT-PCR negativity for SARS-CoV-2. Retesting after an initial positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR was most commonly performed on day 7, with patients being retested as early as day 1. The majority of patients retested within 14 days remained SARS-CoV-2 positive in the RT-PCR. Baseline-corrected Ct-values showed a quasi-linear increase over 14 days since the initial positive result. Both the timing until the first retesting and until RT-PCR negativity were inversely correlated with the initial Ct-value. The timing of retesting after a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR appears to be significantly influenced by the initial Ct-value. Although it can be assumed that Ct-values will increase steadily over time, strategies that rely on rigid Ct-cutoffs should be discussed critically, not only because of methodological caveats but also because of the strain on testing infrastructure caused by the incentive for early retesting that Ct-values apparently represent.