Cutting through the Hype: Understanding the Economic Potential of Saudi Arabia-Israel Diplomatic Relations

The article considers the role of the commodity exchange as an innovative and institutional element in the development of international commodity markets. The current trends in the development of the international commodity exchange market are determined, the volumes of world futures and options for 2018–2019 are compared, the number of outstanding contracts and their changes are investigated. The transformation processes inherent in the international commodity exchange are considered and characterized. The structure of the international exchange market by geographical regions is displayed. The volumes of trading activity in various regions were analyzed with the percent change in 2019 compared to 2018. The analysis of trade in futures and options of the capital index, trading in interest rates, energy futures and options, precious metals is made. The results of the activities of the largest world exchanges on the volume of exchange trade in 2018–2019 are presented. The volume of trade of the Inter-Continental Exchange, due to the low level of activity at all its subsidiary exchanges in Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region, was chosen as one of the criteria examined. The current state of exchange trading in Ukraine is analyzed, obstacles to the effective functioning of the country's stock exchanges are revealed. The article considers the development of commodity exchanges in Ukraine in recent years, indicating the trends in their development. Groups of goods are identified whose trade will create favorable opportunities for the development of the commodity exchange market of Ukraine. Statistical information on the number and structure of exchanges by specialization is examined, their characteristics are provided, and their role in the development of the stock exchange market of Ukraine is shown. Conclusions are drawn on the role of the stock market in a market economy. The international experience of trading on exchanges is investigated and the stages of the evolution of the exchange market from the fair to the modern electronic exchange market with its advantages and convenience are highlighted. Obstacles to the development of exchange trading in Ukraine were identified, proposals were formulated for the successful development of exchange trading in accordance with international experience and national characteristics.

This paper examines pattern of structural changes and potential of trade among BRICS nations during the period 1995-2011. Pattern of structural changes in India’s major trading commodities with other nations was studied through traditionality analysis (Pineres and Ferrantino, 1997; Sethi, 2001). And the potential of Inter-BRICS trade was assessed through panel-data based general gravity modeling. As per the findings, the pattern of structural changes in India’s major commodities exports to and imports from other countries in the block was such that the most traditional items were peculiar to the country in question. As per the estimated gravity model, the intra-BRICS trade is expected to improve significantly through enhanced levels of GDP (via liberalization of trade barriers among the member nations). Population sizes of the member countries also influenced the volume of trade directly, though marginally. However, distance between the member countries induced an indirect, yet non-significant, effect on the volume of intra-block trade. Thus, growth-promoting policies, in conjunction with all-out efforts to ensure cordiality in the Indo-China relations could capitalize upon the potential of trade among BRICS nations. JEL Classification: C13, C23, F14, N70, O57.

The rotation of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations in two dimensions of geopolitical interaction and confrontation and the grounds for their formation

Pakistan and GCC region share a common religion and cultural characteristics, increasing their importance to Pakistan regarding trade policy. To promote economic, cultural, and technical cooperation with GCC members, Pakistan is committed to signing a free trade arrangement with GCC. This paper aims to examine Pakistan's trade opportunities, competitiveness, and trade potential in the GCC region during 2003-2017. The result shows that Pakistan has the maximum comparative and competitive advantage with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and UAE amongst GCC countries. PPML shows that the main trade indicators responsible for Pakistan’s bilateral trade enhancement are GDP in both countries and partner country trade openness. Amongst the GCC countries, Pakistan has the highest trade potential with Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. In contrast, with UAE and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has a lower trade potential than the rest of the countries. Therefore, Pakistan needs to sign FTA with GCC before boosting their mutual trade and cooperation.

The determinants of a country's UN peacekeeping troop contribution have been persistently studied. Trade, as a crucial self-interest motivation, is one of the important explanatory variables in the extant literature. However, the existing literature presents mixed results on the influence of trade on peacekeeping troop contributions. To capture the effect of trade on contributions precisely, we need to model expectations about future trade volume in a better way. Countries are pressured by the economic and political risks caused by the trade disruption and lobby groups to send peacekeeping troops to enable future trade or secure future investments. Therefore, trade potential, rather than realized trade, drives peacekeeping troop contributions. A gravity model is used to measure the trade potential between the UN peacekeeping mission countries and contributors, and test its relationship with the UN peacekeeping participation. Based on this measurement and a dyadic troop contribution dataset covering the period from 1990 to 2012, this article demonstrates that the counter-factual predictive trade volume is a relevant predictor of UN peacekeeping troop contributions.

Introducing more speculators into the market for a given commodity leads to improved risk sharing but can also change the informational content of prices. This inflicts an externality on those traders already in the market, whose ability to make inferences based on current prices will be aff ected. In some cases, the externality is negative: the entry of new s peculators lowers the informativeness of the price to existing trader s. The net result can be one of price destabilization and welfare red uction. This is true even when all agents are rational, risk-averse c ompetitors who make the best possible use of their available informat ion. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 represents a transformative agenda aimed at reducing the Kingdom’s dependence on oil revenues and fostering economic diversification. This study critically examines the implications of Vision 2030 for the future of the Middle East’s political economy, with a particular focus on its potential to enhance regional cooperation and stability. The study seeks to analyze the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification strategy in reducing oil dependency, assess the impact of Vision 2030 on regional economic cooperation, and evaluate the broader geopolitical and economic stability implications for the Middle East. This research employs a qualitative methodology, incorporating a case study approach to examine Saudi Arabia’s economic policies under Vision 2030. Primary data is drawn from official Saudi government reports, policy papers, and economic indicators, while secondary data includes scholarly articles, books, and reports from international financial institutions. The theoretical framework guiding this research is Rentier State Theory (RST) and Neoliberal Institutionalism. findings suggest that while Vision 2030 has made progress in diversifying the Saudi economy, challenges such as labor market inefficiencies, bureaucratic inertia, and geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant obstacles to achieving regional integration. Ultimately, this study contributes to the academic discourse on economic diversification in rentier states and provides insights into how Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation could shape the Middle East’s future political and economic landscape.

ABSTRACTA large segment of consumers prefer e-procurement because it provides several advantages such as a variety of options and lower prices. The business-to-consumer approach is spreading on a global scale, but its role is limited in countries such as Saudi Arabia due to the size and strength of the economy. Saudi Arabia has the fourth highest level of economic growth in the Middle East and ranks 38th globally in terms of Internet infrastructure. Its rate of Internet growth is 12% yearly, and 40% of the population has access to the Internet. The volume of online trade in Saudi Arabia was USD 800 million in 2012, and 56% of this amount was for purchases through foreign websites.The end consumers are one of the most important target segments of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which constitute 90% of Saudi Arabian companies. These companies face limitations in establishing e-procurement channels because these channels require financial support beyond their funding capabilities. Therefore, one of the best low-cost solutions is the adoption of e-Malls, which provide various benefits to consumers and are a suitable environment for SMEs to present and sell their products. The e-Mall is a modern idea in Saudi Arabia; thus, it could be beneficial to adopt the diffusion of an innovative approach to the spread of e-Malls. This article focuses on determining the requirements and obstacles facing consumers who make purchases through e-Malls. A quantitative survey was conducted on a random sample of 381 residents of all ages in Saudi Arabia who had made online purchases. The main factors influencing the adoption of e-Malls were organisational, technical and cultural elements.

Date production is an income source for North African and Asian countries, specifically the Arabian Peninsula, and date serves as an important perennial food that plays a key role in human nutrition and welfare. Indeed, it is considered one of the main sources of food in several countries, particularly in the Arabian Gulf and Middle East. The economic importance of the date palm for producing countries means it is considered a sector with strong potential for employment creation, income generation, and trade. The leading producers of dates in the world are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Algeria, while Saudi Arabia is classified as the largest date-consuming country worldwide. However, there will be a substantial reduction in arable land for date palm cultivation in the future due to climate change, increasing temperature, and dust storms. In addition, climate change can influence the date market directly through negative impacts on storage and distribution, and indirectly through negative impacts on productivity. This chapter discusses the economics of date production globally and in Saudi Arabia specifically. It concisely covers major topics of importance to date globally, including the socioeconomics of date production, date production and consumption, world trade, marketing systems, prices, challenges and opportunities for date marketing, regulations and standards of the date trade, and the economic feasibility of date production. In addition, this chapter contains detailed explanations of macroeconomic information of dates in Saudi Arabia as a case study.

Futures and food prices – Authors' reply

Executive Summary The future trading has been held responsible by certain political and interest groups of enhancing speculative trading activities and causing volatility in the spot market, thereby further spiralling up inflation. This study examines the effect of future of trading activity on spot market volatility. The study first determined the Granger causal relationship between unexpected future trading volume and spot market volatility. It then examined the Granger causal relationship between unexpected open interest and spot market volatility. The spot volatility and liquidity was modelled using EGARCH and unexpected trading volume. The expected trading volume and open interest was calculated by using the 21-day moving average, and the difference between actual and expected component was treated as the unexpected trading volume and unexpected open interest. Empirical results confirm that for chickpeas ( channa), cluster bean ( guar seed), pepper, refined soy oil, and wheat, the future (unexpected) liquidity leads spot market volatility. The causal relationship implies that trading volume, which is a proxy for speculators and day traders, is dominant in the future market and leads volatility in the spot market. The results are in conformity with earlier empirical findings — Yang, Balyeat and Leathan (2005) and Nath and Lingareddy (2008) —that future trading destabilizes the spot market for agricultural commodities. Results show that there is no causal relationship between future open interest and spot volatility for all commodities except refined soy oil and wheat. The findings imply that open interest, which is a proxy of hedging activity, is leading to volatility in spot market for refined soy oil and wheat. The results are in conformity to earlier empirical studies that there is a weak causal feedback between future unexpected open interest and volatility in spot market ( Yang et al., 2005 ). For chickpeas (channa), the increase in volatility in the spot market increases trading activity in the future market. The findings are contrary to earlier empirical evidence ( Chatrath, Ramchander, & Song, 1996 ; Yang et al., 2005 ) that increase in spot volatility reduces future trading activity. However, they are in conformity to Chen, Cuny and Haugen (1995) that increase in spot volatility increases future open interest. The results reveal that the future market has been unable to engage sufficient hedging activity. Thereby, a causal relationship exists only for future trading volume and spot volatility, and not for future open interest and spot volatility. The results have major implications for policymakers, investment managers, and for researchers as well. The study contributes to literature on price discovery, spillovers, and price destabilization for Indian commodity markets.

THIS NOTE has two distinct but complementary objectives: (1) to reconsider arguments on the relationship between the volume of trading in Maine potato futures contracts and changes in certain potato prices; (2) to illustrate two known but sometimes disregarded problems in economic research. The reconsideration, we believe, is justified by the numerous criticisms of commodity futures markets. This paper presents additional evidence with respect to an argument presented to the Congress in 1963 [see 4a]. Prior to 1950 there had been little trading in futures contracts for potatoes. In the crop years, 1951-1965, trading in Maine contracts increased substantially, but there was essentially no trading in Idaho contracts. Over the same time period, shipping point prices in Maine declined relative to those in Idaho (Table 1). Testifying before a Congressional subcommittee [4a, pp. 45f], an expert witness stated (a) the price decline reduced returns to the Maine potato industry roughly $15 million a year, (b) that futures trading played an important if not a dominant part, and (c) change in production was not the answer to the price decline.

Saudi Vision 2030, a strategic framework aimed at diversifying the economy and enhancing societal inclusivity, aligns with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting gender equality and sustainable economic growth. Sustainability is central to fostering women’s entrepreneurship, as it drives social equity, economic diversification, and innovation, elements which are crucial to sustainable development. While the existing literature has primarily focused on women’s entrepreneurship in the Western world, limited attention has been given to its development in the Global South, particularly in Saudi Arabia. As a nation undergoing transformative social, cultural, and economic shifts, women entrepreneurs play a critical role in aligning entrepreneurial efforts with global sustainability goals. This research investigates the factors influencing Saudi women to become entrepreneurs, specifically examining the factors that inspire or hinder them from creating their own ventures. Drawing upon cognitive and social capital theories, which have proven their soundness in the existing literature, this research utilizes a dataset of 1715 women entrepreneurs analyzed through binomial logistic regression. The findings indicate that social desirability, relational capital, experience as angel investors, age, income, and education significantly increase the likelihood of women’s entrepreneurship. By contextualizing women’s entrepreneurship within Saudi Arabia’s evolving societal and economic landscape, this research highlights their potential as drivers of inclusive growth and sustainable economic empowerment. Furthermore, the research outlines strategies to enhance women’s entrepreneurial participation, contributing both to the entrepreneurship literature and the realization of Saudi Vision 2030.

The Saudi Arabia’s “Fundamentalists” the position runs counter in the basic religious doctrine with, and People's Republic of China ’s “Communist” and “Socialism” the idea, also can affect the Saudi Arabian imperial family’s benefit and the stability. However the Saudi Arabia actually purchases the missile to the People’s Republic of China, and established diplomatic relations in 1990 . The Transformation in Diplomatic Relations between Saudi-Arabia and China was really worth studying and the discussion truly. Because in 1973 the petroleum crisis took Saudi Arabia the huge economic interest, enable Saudi Arabia’s government to have the abundant financial resource to foster the talent, but caused in this border to have the social structure change, because the group accepted the higher education or overseas abroad study return to homeland, dominated the political power to Saudi Arabian’s Government and the traditional royal court to be discontented, finally urged Saudi Arabian’s King to implement the reform as well as the cabinet carries on the reorganization, in addition, also enabled the sand country tradition political power abandonment passing the country to have to “the communism” first impressions ares most lasting the hostility, and after suffered US ‘s Parliament to go back a promise to sell the Saudi Arabian F-15 fighter plane, originated the policy using the disperser arms sale to purchase missiles form People’s Republic of China. In the international environment aspect, the Saudi Arabia after the excavating petroleum, is admires the US military force to protect its petroleum benefit, but because US's Israel's policy, causes the Saudi Arabia to the American confidence vacillation, however, this time People’s Republic of China actually unceasingly (the People’s Republic of China using the United Nations Security Council), the economy (purchases petrified industry and wheat), the military (sells the missiles), the psychology (using religious relations), at that time Saudi Arabia is in order to maintain the Saudi Arabian leader regime stably, strengthens own national defense military force, by the consolidated this country in under the Islam world leading positions consideration, urges Saudi Arabia choose People’s Republic of China to purchases missiles, and establishes both sides official foreign relations.

This study investigates the relationship between futures trading activity and spot market volatility for agricultural, metal, precious metals and energy commodities in Indian commodity derivatives market. This article contributes to the debate whether the futures trading in Indian commodity futures market stabilizes or destabilizes spot market. We explore this issue by modeling contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between spot volatility and futures trading activity including trading volume (speculative/day trading) and open interest (hedging). Following Bessembinder and Senguin (1992), we examine contemporaneous relationship through augmented GARCH model in which spot volatility is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process and trading activity is used as explanatory variable. We also decompose futures trading volume and open interest series into expected and unexpected component. The lead-lag relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading volume and open interest is investigated through VAR model. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function are used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables. We found that both expected and unexpected futures trading volume affects contemporaneous spot volatility positively. However, in case of agricultural commodities only unexpected volume affects the contemporaneous spot volatility. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function confirm that the lagged unexpected volatility causes spot price volatility for all commodities. The effect of speculative/day trading activity measured by trading volume on spot market volatility is positive. However, hedging activity measured by open interest does not show significant effect on spot market volatility. We do not find any effect of spot volatility on futures trading activity for most of the commodities.