Current Research in Applied and Environmental Mycology Fungal Profiles 1-30

Background Lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) is a major public health challenge in Asia. Nevertheless, a critical gap remains in understanding the epidemiological burden of LOC among young people (15–44 years) in the region. This study aims to analyze the burden and risk factors of LOC in this age group across the four Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Asian regions from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2030. Methods Data on the incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of LOC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the GBD 2021 study for East, South, Southeast Asia, and High-income Asia Pacific. This study assessed the LOC burden among young people (15–44 years) through age- and sex-stratified analyses, evaluated temporal trends via joinpoint regression, examined risk factor contributions, and projected trends to 2030 using the Nordpred age-period-cohort model. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased across all subregions, with the largest rise in East Asia. In contrast, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate declined everywhere except South Asia. In 2021, South Asia bore the heaviest LOC burden among young people in the four Asian subregions. India reported the highest incident cases, deaths, and DALYs in 2021, and Pakistan had the highest ASR for all three metrics. Taiwan (Province of China) showed the largest increase in ASRs over the period. In 2021, smoking had the highest contribution in East Asia, alcohol use in High-income Asia Pacific, and chewing tobacco in South Asia. Projections to 2030 indicate rising ASIR in East, South, and Southeast Asia but declines in High-income Asia Pacific; decreasing ASMR everywhere except South Asia; and increasing age-standardized DALYs rate in East and South Asia but decreases elsewhere. Conclusions LOC imposes a substantial and growing burden on young people in South, East, and Southeast Asia, marked by rising ASIR since 1990 and projected increases through 2030. South Asia faces the most urgent challenge with concurrent rises in incidence, mortality, and DALYs—most notably in the 20–24 age group. Region-specific interventions targeting predominant risk factors are critically needed.

Aerosols continue to contribute the largest uncertainty in quantifying Earth’s climate change. The uncertainty associated with aerosol radiative forcing is found to be higher over Asia. The simulation and future projection of aerosol impact on climate may not be highly accurate over Asia due to rapid changes in aerosol emissions, limitations in simulating the observed aerosol trends, and the non-availability of regional distribution of columnar aerosol parameters based on high-quality observational datasets on a seasonal scale. For the first time, this comprehensive study examines the spatial and regional variations of aerosol columnar optical and physical properties (aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine mode fraction (FMF), and single scattering albedo (SSA)) and their associated radiative effects (aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and heating rate (HR)) using high-quality Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) datasets on seasonal and annual scales over Asia. This study is performed over a total of 44 selected AERONET observational sites covering different regions of Asia, e.g., Central, South, South-East, and East Asia. AOD, ARF at the surface and in the atmosphere, and aerosol-induced atmospheric HR are observed to be the highest over South Asia, followed by South-East, East, and Central Asia in each season. SSA is found to be lower over South and Central Asia compared to South-East and East Asia. The combined influence of both fine anthropogenic aerosol emissions (e.g., carbonaceous aerosols) from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion, and coarse mode dust aerosols from seasonal transport lead to higher AOD (0.6) and lower SSA (0.90), which overall result in higher ARF (~−70 Wm-2 at surface and 40 Wm-2 in atmosphere) and HR (0.80 Kday-1) over South Asia. South-East and East Asia are dominated by fine aerosols (higher FMF) due to higher contributions from forest fire and anthropogenic emissions, respectively, and relatively less dominance of dust aerosols compared to Central and South Asia. In addition, the seasonal aerosol optical and radiative parameters over Asia are also compared and contrasted with other regions of the globe, e.g., North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, where aerosol emissions are significantly different and mostly lower than in Asia. These findings provide observational constraints that are crucial for the improvement in model simulations for accurately assessing the radiative and climatic impacts of aerosols over a global aerosol hotspot region, Asia, where the uncertainty associated with aerosol radiative forcing is found to be higher. Details of the spatiotemporal variations in aerosol characteristics over Asia will be presented, compared and contrasted with the rest of the world, and inferences will be drawn. 

This study investigated heavy metal contamination in drinking water in five Asian regions (East, Southeast, South, Central, and West Asia) with an interest in inorganic arsenic (iAs), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr) and nickel (Ni). Human exposure, risks, and the disease burdens in terms of loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed. Concentrations of heavy metals and risks in different regions were variable. Hazard index (HI), cancer risk (CR) and DALYs were used as the health metrics. The total cancer risk was highest in Southeast Asia (2.18 × 10−4) followed by South Asia (1.61 × 10−4), West Asia (1.04 × 10−4), Central Asia (8.85 × 10−5) and East Asia (3.94 × 10−5). Cancer risks exceeding 1 × 10−4 (1 in 10,000) were considered higher risk while Southeast Asia had the highest risk. In terms of population-adjusted DALY, South Asia had the highest (1.95 × 105) followed by Southeast Asia (8.66 × 104), East Asia (2.34 × 104), West Asia (1.91 × 104) and Central Asia (4.60 × 103). Lung cancer emerged as the main outcome in all regions, accounting for 85% and 94% of cancer risks, and DALYs respectively. The findings highlight regional disparities, requiring intervention strategies in a few regions. The actions may include implementing regulations, treatment technologies and establishing monitoring systems to ensure water quality.

South East Asia (SEA) is made up of 11 countries (Viet-nam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Philippines, Indonesia and Timor Leste) from Myanmar in the northwest to Timor Leste in the far south east. It is one of the most far flung region in Asia, with a land mass of 4.5 million km2 and theitspopulation of 641 million makes it the third most populous geographical region in the world after South Asia and East Asia. Asia is the world’s largest most populous continent stretching from the Middle East in the west to Japan in the east with a population of 4.567 billion.

South East Asia (SEA) is made up of 11 countries (Viet-nam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Philippines, Indonesia and Timor Leste) from Myanmar in the northwest to Timor Leste in the far south east. It is one of the most far flung region in Asia, with a land mass of 4.5 million km 2 and theitspopulation of 641 million makes it the third most populous geographical region in the world after South Asia and East Asia. Asia is the world’s largest most populous continent stretching from the Middle East in the west to Japan in the east with a population of 4.567 billion.

This study employs super-efficiency DEA model with desirable inputs and an undesirable output in calculating environmental efficiency values in different regions in Asia-Pacific from 1990 to 2018. The study compares environmental efficiency index in South East Asia, South Asia and East Asia. The study also evaluates the determinants of environmental efficiency using truncated regression. The mean environmental efficiency score demonstrates that East Asia region is highly efficient whereas South East Asia is the least efficient. Results from the truncated regression established an inverted U-shape relationship between environmental efficiency and Technological Innovation (TI) in the main panel, and the three regions. Also, economic growth shows an inverted “U” shape link with environmental efficiency in the panels except in South East Asia. Human capital promotes environmental efficiency in the main panel and the rest of the regions. Moreover, while FDI promotes environmental efficiency in the main panel and East Asia, it reduces environmental efficiency in both South East and South Asia regions within the Asia-Pacific. In addition, an interaction effect between technological innovation and renewable energy use, advances environmental efficiency within the entire study countries. Based on the findings the study proposes several policy recommendations.

e16615 Background: Bladder cancer remains a significant global health burden, particularly in older adults, with its incidence and mortality varying widely across regions. The median age at diagnosis of bladder is 73 years with 80% over the age of 65 in United States. Age of patients can impact management often requiring a multidisciplinary approach. Methods: Incidence rates for individuals aged 70+ across seven superregions (Central, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, High-income countries, North Africa and Middle East, Latin America and Carribean, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast, East Asia and Oceania) were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and analyzed using ARIMA in Stata 18.0 to forecast rates from 2022–2050. Mortality rates were forecasted using the GBD foresight visualization tool. Percentage changes in incidence and mortality compared to 2021 were calculated and analyzed. Results: Bladder cancer incidence rates are projected to increase in North Africa and the Middle East (+6.8% by 2030, +23.0% by 2050), Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (+5.2% by 2030, +17.0% by 2050), South Asia (+2.0% by 2030, +7.3% by 2050), Latin America and the Caribbean (+1.6% by 2030, +5.2% by 2050), and Sub-Saharan Africa (+1.8% by 2030, +6.5% by 2050). In contrast, High-Income Regions and Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia are expected to decline, with High-Income Regions showing the steepest decrease (-10.6% by 2030, -52.0% by 2050). Mortality rates are projected to rise in High-Income Regions (+3.6% by 2030, +18.8% by 2050) andCentral Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia (+3.6% by 2050, despite a -0.9% drop by 2030). Declines by 2030 are anticipated in Latin America and the Caribbean (-2.9%), North Africa and the Middle East (-4.5%), Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (-3.0%), and Sub-Saharan Africa (-2.9%), though many regions show stabilization or modest increases by 2050, such as South Asia (+7.0%) and Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (+12.4%). Conclusions: The study underscores the need for greater emphasis on regions in Asia and Africa expected to see an increase in incidence rates. The increase in mortality in many regions call for greater research in geriatric oncology and targeted interventions in older adults. Incidence rate (per 100,000 population) Mortality rates (per 100,000 population) Region 2021 2030 2050 2021 2030 2050 Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia 64.99 61.28 57.28 39.78 39.41 41.22 High-income countries 110.38 98.67 53.03 48.40 50.13 57.49 Latin America and Caribbean 29.84 30.31 31.38 22.34 21.69 22.31 North Africa and Middle East 68.04 72.69 83.69 34.90 33.33 35.24 South Asia 18.75 19.14 20.13 15.39 15.26 16.47 Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania 40.60 42.71 47.49 24.02 23.30 27.01 Sub-Saharan Africa 26.57 27.06 28.31 23.64 22.96 22.90

In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998–2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

According to the basic principles of flood risk, risk of storm hazard, stability of disaster environment and vulnerabilities of hazard-affected bodies, we used South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia as the study area and comprehensively considered major indicators, including the rainfall, topography, land use, vegetation, river network density, population and economic strength, to perform a disaster impact evaluation. The above-mentioned factors were normalized to obtain standardized multi-source raster data using the geographic information system (GIS) software package. The weights of relevant indicators were determined according to analytic hierarchy processes, and a model to perform comprehensive risk assessment of flood was constructed. We used GIS to obtain an assessment map of the flood comprehensive risk levels of typical Asian areas. With the help of the comprehensive analysis, genesis and mitigation service principles and assessment map of the flood comprehensive risk levels, both qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed on the study region. Finally, the study area was divided into six sub-regions, the northwestern, southwestern, southern, and central districts, eastern plains, and southeastern coastal areas. Among these districts, the eastern plains and southeastern coastal areas had the highest risk, followed by the southern district. Meanwhile, the southwestern district had lower values, and the northwestern and central districts exhibited the lowest risk. The results from this research have significant reference values regarding macro-policy decisions on the prevention of flood disasters in the South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia.

Aerosol emissions from human activities are extensive and changing rapidly over Asia. Model simulations and satellite observations indicate a dipole pattern in aerosol emissions and loading between South Asia and East Asia, two of the most heavily polluted regions of the world. We examine the previously unexplored diverging trends in the existing dipole pattern of aerosols between East and South Asia using the high quality, two-decade long ground-based time series of observations of aerosol properties from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), from satellites (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)), and from model simulations (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The data cover the period since 2001 for Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia), two locations taken as being broadly representative of the respective regions. Since 2010 a dipole in aerosol optical depth (AOD) is maintained, but the trend is reversed—the decrease in AOD over Beijing (East Asia) is rapid since 2010, being 17% less in current decade compared to first decade of twenty-first century, while the AOD over South Asia increased by 12% during the same period. Furthermore, we find that the aerosol composition is also changing over time. The single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of aerosol’s absorption capacity and related to aerosol composition, is slightly higher over Beijing than Kanpur, and has increased from 0.91 in 2002 to 0.93 in 2017 over Beijing and from 0.89 to 0.92 during the same period over Kanpur, confirming that aerosols in this region have on an average become more scattering in nature. These changes have led to a notable decrease in aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate (HR) over both regions between the two decades, decreasing considerably more over East Asia (− 31%) than over South Asia (− 9%). The annual mean HR is lower now, it is still large (≥ 0.6 K per day), which has significant climate implications. The seasonal trends in AOD, SSA and HR are more pronounced than their respective annual trends over both regions. The seasonal trends are caused mainly by the increase/decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions (sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon) while the natural aerosols (dust and sea salt) did not change significantly over South and East Asia during the last two decades. The MERRA-2 model is able to simulate the observed trends in AODs well but not the magnitude, while it also did not simulate the SSA values or trends well. These robust findings based on observations of key aerosol parameters and previously unrecognized diverging trends over South and East Asia need to be accounted for in current state-of-the-art climate models to ensure accurate quantification of the complex and evolving impact of aerosols on the regional climate over Asia.

Aim. To consider the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and special military ope­ration on the structure of the international derivatives market. Tasks. To characterize the regional structure of the international derivatives market; to analyze the specifics of trade by region, country, exchange and underlying assets; to identify key trends in the international derivatives market and the factors forming them during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and special military operation. Methods. General scientific methods of research (analysis and synthesis, induction, classifica­tion, etc.), as well as computational and analytical methods were used. Results. Two key trends were identified in the study of changes in international derivatives trading activity. First, the Asia-Pacific region, led by India and China, has taken the lead in the international derivatives trade structure in terms of trade volume. The U.S. region, led by the United States and Brazil, has lagged far behind the Asia-Pacific region in terms of trade activ­ity since the launch of the special military operation, which may entail capital outflows from America to East and South Asia. Second, the West Asian region, which includes a number of countries in the Near and Middle East, led by Turkey and Iran, is a new player in the deriva­tives market, which has entered into competition with the European region. During the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the West Asian region actively increased derivatives trading volumes. The most popular underlying assets of derivatives were stocks, whose trading volume during the pandemic approached the trading volume of the European region as a whole, which includes the European Union countries, Great Britain and Russia. After the start of the special military operation, the drop in volumes in the European region put the West Asian region in third place in the international structure of derivatives trading activity, indicating the growing competi­tion between West Asia and Europe. Conclusions. The transformation of the international market based on the outflow of trade activity to South, East and West Asia during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and special military operation forms a qualitatively new interaction of participants in the international derivatives market. India, China, Turkey and Iran are new key players in the Asian region. Their interaction creates prerequisites for the creation of a contour of new economic mutually advan­tageous interaction in the world economic system, in which the competition is between the regions of South Asia, East Asia and America, as well as between West Asia and the European region. To form a clearer contour of the participants of the new economic interaction, further research on the centers of capitalization in the international derivatives market and the basis for their formation, as well as infrastructure research aimed at studying the transatlantic and continental system of interconnection of exchanges is needed.

This paper investigates the effect of regional borders on trade in Asia. The regional borders define the three regions of Asia: South, Southeast, and East Asia. Regional trade indicates the flows of trade within a region, whereas regional border trade means trade across regions. A gravity model is augmented with the region dummies to estimate the regional border effects that capture any and all time-invariant factors promoting or impeding regional trade. The main finding is that regional border effects are asymmetric on the three regions in Asia: There is a large and significant regional border effect on South Asia, small on Southeast Asia, and negligibly negative on East Asia. The significant and positive regional border effect in South Asia suggests that countries share intrinsic factors facilitating trade between countries in this region. Although the regional border effect of Southeast Asia is positive, its magnitude shows little difference between its regional trade and regional border trade. Finally, the estimate on East Asia presents a completely different picture from the actual data. It implies that there exist some factors leading to active regional border trade between East Asia and other Asian regions.

Optical and physical characteristics of aerosols over Asia: AERONET, MERRA-2 and CAMS

Economic integration of South Asia and East Asia has been growing steadily since the 1990s, fuelled by domestic reforms and the emergence of regional supply chains. Within South Asia, India emerged as the largest trading partner and investment destination for East Asian economies. With its new Act East Policy, India has been proactively looking at free trade agreements with Association of Southeast Asian Nation and East Asia, which has brought benefits to South Asia in terms of improved trade and increased investment. This paper assesses the experience of the economic integration of South Asia and East Asia by addressing questions such as the extent of trade integration achieved and impediments to deepening integration. It found that trade and investment linkages are growing as well as casually related. However, attaining the full potential of economic integration is constrained by the insufficient depth in the use of existing trade agreements, barriers to service trade, and poor infrastructure connectivity. Expansion of Regional Comprehensive Economic Cooperation would significantly enhance economic integration of South Asia, particularly India, and East Asia.

PHP92 - The Growth of Cost-Effectiveness Analyses in Asia