Current and projected growth of China’s nuclear arsenal

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For years, some of the highest ranking members of the U.S. military have warned about the growing Chinese nuclear threat. The annual DoD Chinese military power reports are the most authoritative assessment available but they have a poor track record assessing Chinese nuclear weapons. DoD estimates that China possessed 500+ warheads in May 2023, and will possess 1,000+ warheads in 2030 and about 1,500 in 2035 are almost certainly low. Indeed, 500+ in 2023 is mathematically impossible even with extremely unrealistic assumptions (e.g., no MIRVing). The Defense Department is assessing fewer warheads on the new Chinese MIRVed missiles than other open sources including the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Even if the DoD’s warhead projections are correct, China will achieve rough numerical parity with the United States in the mid-2030s. If the Defense Department is wrong, China could achieve superiority—­possessing several thousand nuclear weapons—within a few years.