Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory.

Abstract

There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three-week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.