Cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 by a community-based serological cohort study in Selenghe Province, Mongolia

Abstract

Large community outbreaks of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 occurred between October and December 2009 in Mongolia. A serological study was conducted among the general population by testing paired sera collected before and after the first wave of pandemic in Selenghe province, Mongolia. None of the study participants had been vaccinated for pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 before the second samples were collected. The objective of this study was to estimate cumulative incidence of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 in different age-groups of Selenghe province residents. After informed consent was obtained from apparently healthy volunteers, the paired sera and background information were collected. Antibody titers were measured using hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (MN) assays for A/California/07/2009pdm. A fourfold rise in antibody titers was regarded as the evidence of infection. The overall cumulative incidences in the study group for all ages were 28.8% (76/264) by HI, 35.2% (93/264) by MN, and 25.0% (66/264) by both HI and MN. Cumulative incidences of infection varied among age-groups, with children aged 2-4 and 5-9 years having high cumulative incidence of infection. Overall cumulative incidences of infection in the whole population were estimated to be 23.0% (4946/21460) by HI, 30.2% (6473/21460) by MN, and 18.8% (4036/21460) by both HI and MN. This study indicates that about one-fourth of the total population in Selenghe province was infected with pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 virus during the first wave of the pandemic.