Cultivating Change for the Nepalese: Analyzing the Impacts of the Climate Crisis on Farmers in Nepal

The Negative Bidirectional Interaction Between Climate Change and the Prevalence and Care of Liver Disease: A Joint BSG, BASL, EASL, and AASLD Commentary

Background Food insecurity is a key global health challenge that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Populations experiencing an increased frequency of extreme weather events may be particularly vulnerable to other threats including natural disasters. In this study, we assessed how exposure to an earthquake followed by monsoon rainfall anomalies impacted household food insecurity in Nepal. Methods We linked 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey data to district level 2015 Nepali earthquake data and rainfall anomalies during the 2015 monsoon season. Using logistic regression models, we exploited variation in exposure to the earthquake and rainfall anomalies to isolate the independent and joint effects of each set of conditions. Results Overall, 32% of households reported moderate/severe food insecurity. Among households not severely impacted by the earthquake, negative and positive rainfall anomalies were associated with a 41%, and 15% predicted probability of moderate/severe food insecurity, respectively. Surprisingly, this relationship was reversed in districts severely impacted by earthquake, with a 21% and 40% predicted probability of moderate/severe food insecurity observed among households experiencing negative and positive rainfall anomalies, respectively. Conclusion Among households not severely impacted by earthquake, negative monsoon rainfall anomalies (lack of rain) likely disrupted agricultural productivity and increased food insecurity. In contrast, we found an increased rate of moderate/severe food insecurity associated with greater rainfall in earthquake affected districts. Rainfall events disproportionately increased landslides in the earthquake impacted areas, which likely damaged hilly roads and limited the distribution of food aid. While Nepal received large amounts of food aid to assist with recovery from the earthquake, extreme weather events such as floods and droughts are unlikely to garner similar levels of assistance. Without sufficient resources for adaptation and recovery, more frequent and severe rainfall anomalies tied to climate change will leave Nepalis increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity.

Food insecurity in densely populated South Asia remains a major issue despite the success of the Green Revolution, and the problem also exists even in the sparsely populated Central Asia. Growing population, changing climate, degrading soils, increasingly vulnerable ecoregions, and worsening political stability are among numerous contributors to food insecurity in Central and South Asia. There exists a strong “soil degradation – global warming – food insecurity nexus” which must be addressed through translation of proven agronomic and pedologic science into action by prudent governance and political will power. Prominent processes of soil degradation include decline of soil structure along with crusting and compaction, accelerated erosion by water and wind, excessive withdrawal of water, along with eutrophication and contamination, depletion of soil organic matter content, pollution of air, mining of plant nutrients by extractive practices, rapid salinization and acidification of soil, and growing risks of waterlogging because of flood irrigation, etc. Global warming is adversely affecting the agronomic yield and taking a collective action at a regional level through cooperation among all countries, is critical to addressing the serious issue of food and nutritional insecurity that cuts across political, ethnic, and national boundaries. Risks of stagnating and declining agronomic productivity, along with aggravating soil degradation because of changing climate and inappropriate soil/crop/water management, is an especially urgent issue in densely populated South Asia that cannot be ignored. Food wastes, 30 to 40% of grains and even more for fruits and vegetables, are crime against nature and humanity and must be urgently addressed. It would be prudent and nature-friendly to adopt policies which discourage the in-field burning of crop residues, scalping of topsoil for brick making, using flood-based irrigation, puddling of soil followed by inundation of rice paddies in arid and semi-arid regions and broadcasting of fertilizers. Subsidies, such as those for irrigation and nitrogen fertilizers, must be changed into payments for ecosystem services provisioned through adoption of recommended management practices. Thus, stronger investment in agriculture and transformational changes in policies are needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations.

Food insecurity is a global issue, with higher prevalence of hunger in developing countries. Low crop yield and food production - due to difficult topography and traditional farming methods - combined with lower income; fluctuations in prices and supply, and low quality of food have been causing food insecurity in Nepal. This research examines food (in)security situation in Upper-Mustang, Nepal. The results are derived from the data collected through face–to-face interviews with the heads of 66 households, in-depth interviews conducted with 22 key informants, and discussions with the group of local people in different (6) places. The household food system was studied from livelihood perspectives and food (in)security was assessed in relation to self-sufficiency or production sufficiency, access, utilization, and stability of food. Households in the Trans-Himalaya acquire food from multiple sources such as farming and livestock ranching, buy food from the market, and also receive food aid for the sake of survival during the food crisis. Food security situation in terms of self-production in Upper-Mustang is at worst stage that many households are facing severe to chronic food insecurity. Studied households access marketed food, though the price they pay is very high. The worrisome issue is that there is no significant improvement in food security situation over time in the Trans-Himalaya. Study found that not the household size but dependency ratio in the household increases food insecurity. On the other hand, quality of farmland in terms of cropping intensity and availability of irrigation rather than the farm-plot size contribute for food security. The issue of food security is still a valid development policy goal for Nepal in general and for the Trans-Himalaya in particular. Accordingly, food security interventions are important. Yet, policy for interventions should look into all components of food systems, particularly providing irrigation, promoting local food varieties, and provisioning for food subsidies and food aid together with subsidies in food transport.

Chapter 2 - Responding to Climate Change in the Agriculture and Rural Development Sector in Vietnam

Climate change is a pervasive global issue that threatens the livelihoods and wellbeing of billions living globally. Climate change is a risk multiplier impacting all ecosystems, society, and sectors of the economy. The agriculture sector is one such sector that is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. In a country like Nepal where rainfed agriculture is a dominant occupation and a key pillar of the country’s economy, climate change brings risks and negative consequences for on-farm production, farmers' livelihoods as well as on the country’s development. The impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, an increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events such as drought, and shifts in the rainfall seasonality, can cause a decline in food production and threaten the quality of food supplies, leading to reduced food security. The rise in the global population will increase global demand for food which implies that agriculture needs to boost production and increase yields, among other things. The unprecedented risks posed by climate change potentially undermine the ability of farms and farm holders to grow adequate and quality food. The severity of these risks varies due to a range of underlying factors including low economic development, their location, existing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and institutional arrangements. While the impacts of climate change on food production as well as agricultural practices in Nepal have been documented, there is a dearth in scholarly literature that has assessed the impacts of climate change on household food security in Nepal incorporating farmers’ perspectives and in particular smallholder subsistence farmers. Furthermore, there is only modest literature that has examined geographical variations in those experiences and understandings. This PhD study aimed, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on agricultural practices and food security, with a focus on subsistence smallholder farmers in three main agro- ecological zones of Nepal known as The Mountains, Hills, and the Terai. The study aimed to respond to the primary research question: How are Nepalese farming communities being impacted by climate change and how are they responding to ensure their continued food security? To answer this main research, question the study posed the following secondary research questions: Q1. How is climate changing and how is it impacting subsistence agriculture? Q2. What are the farmers experiencing and what is their understanding? a. Are there gender differences in understanding and experiencing? Q3. What is the state of food insecurity among these farmers? a. How is it being impacted by climate change? Q4. What adaptation strategies have been adopted by smallholder farmers to address threats to agricultural practices and food security from climate change and other pressures? Both the qualitative and qualitative data were collected using multiple methods to address the identified research questions. Methods included a narrative literature review, systematic review, face to face interviews with farmers, individual interviews with key informants and focus groups with the women's group. Climate data on temperature between 1971-2013 and rainfall between 1967-2013 were analysed. Additionally, secondary data on crop yield from 1980 to 2016 were also analysed to gain a better empirical understanding of the relations between climate change and yield pattern and to triangulate and validate the findings from the interviews. Quantitative data on cereal crop yields and climate data were systematically tabulated and further statistically analysed using software R. This study employed the Bayesian approach to statistical modelling. Besides, this study undertook an integrated risk assessment of food insecurity using the Bayesian Belief Network model to reflect how the risk of food insecurity is influenced under two scenarios: (1) current climate conditions and (2) the influences of different adaptation strategies employed. NVivo was used for content analysis for qualitative data obtained from the key informant interview and focus group data and analysis of transcripts from farmers' structured interviews. The findings showed that agricultural practices have undergone various changes over the past 30 years. Climate change impacts were experienced by farmers in all three agro-ecological zones of Nepal. However, the impacts varied between these zones in terms of frequency and intensity. The effect of climate change was highly pronounced in the Mountains zone followed by the Hills and the Terai. The results confirmed that rural subsistence smallholder farmers dependent on rainfed agriculture are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Moreover, it disproportionately affects the poor farmers whose income hinges solely on agriculture and associated activities. Boosting agricultural production and empowering these smallholders is key to enhancing their food security. The experiences reported by farmers are well aligned with the trend of the climatic variables obtained from climate data analysis, highlighting the importance of perception-based survey in complementing climate research. The study demonstrated both the climatic and non-climatic factors are affecting agricultural practices as well as household food security of these farming communities. It is, therefore, difficult to isolate the influence of any of these factors. This was supported by the findings from the risk assessment undertaken by Bayesian modelling. Based on Bayesian modelling, the smallholder farmers mainly at the Mountain zone were at the risk of food insecurity. The measures to increase the adaptive capacity of these smallholders were found to help them manage the risk of food insecurity. Addressing the complicated and multifaceted concerns of climate change and food security needs multidisciplinary and multisectoral adaptation interventions acknowledging underlying biophysical, social, economic, geographical and environmental circumstances. Farmers have taken some actions to adapt and reduce the worsening impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, farmers encountered several barriers in effectively adapting to climate change. This study concluded there is an urgent need for a transformative level of intervention that warrants a coordinated action and collaboration between relevant stakeholders working in this field, including governments and non-governmental organizations, to target the most vulnerable and the needy smallholder farmers addressing the constraints and pressures they face. Policy and decision-makers should work extensively and sensitively with smallholders to ensure the maintenance of their livelihood and to guarantee their food security. Combining local and scientific knowledge is needed to help direct research and tailor adaptation solutions that meet local conditions and needs.

The objective of this study is to measure the hindrances of climate change adaptation among rural rice farmers in Nepal and its possible way forward. This study was done in seven districts, one district from each of seven provinces, where three from Terai region (i.e. Bara, Dang and Kailali) and four from Hilly region (i.e. Ilam, Sindhuli, Syangja and Surkhet) of Nepal. A structural questionnaire with both closed and open - ended questions were prepared and used to obtain required information from 773 rice farming households from the targeted study areas. Interviews were conducted for the crop year 2016 and for the main season rice cultivation in Nepal covering from June/July to October/November of each year (i.e., monsoonal cultivation of paddy). Results show that, factors such as inadequate operational capital, poor access to weather forecast and climate change information, inadequate awareness program on climate change from government and non-government agencies are the major barriers for over 90 percent of the farmers surveyed by this study. Similarly, about 80 percent of the sample surveyed farmers opined that high cost of improving seeds, fertilizers and irrigation, inadequate knowledge on coping mechanism or in building resilience and inadequate access to credit facilities are the major hindrances to them for addressing weather and Climate Change (CC) related vagaries. Hence, the empirical results drawn from this study suggest that there is an urgent need in Nepal for greater investment at agrarian sector to address these farmers’ level constraints and including supports for improving access to market and credit issues to farmers ( institutional and policy supports). Poor and ultra-poor farmers are more vulnerable from the vagaries of climate change, thereby immediate actions are needed from Ministry of Agriculture, and newly set up local government units in terms of more public investments at local and national level to enhance the climate change resilience of smallholding and poor farmers of Nepal.

Agriculture being the source of food, income, and employment for majority of the population, Nepal government has always emphasized this sector for dealing with key issues of poverty alleviation and economic development . Its support however is mostly inclined toward conventional farming. Organic farming holds a lot of potential in Nepal due to exclusion of costly agrochemicals, ecological diversities, and higher labor availability in farming sector. Besides, it also tackles the issue of climate change, food insecurity, and negative impact of conventional farming that have started to be realized in areas where use of chemicals is higher. While government has started to realize its importance and has come up with consistent policies, lack of adequate and integrated research, extension, manpower, and other support on organic farming production, marketing, and input supply have hindered the development of organic farming.

Using data from a population-based cross-sectional survey, we aim to measure the prevalence, risk factors, and impact of COVID-19 on household food insecurity, housing insecurity, and the double burden of experiencing both. Data were collected from July to November 2022. We used simple and multivariable logistic regression models to investigate the factors contributing to food insecurity, housing insecurity, and the double burden. Additionally, we computed the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) to determine whether any significant interactions contributed to the increased risk of experiencing the double burden. Around 27% of our study participants were food insecure, 54% were housing insecure, and 22% were food and housing insecure (double burden). Respondents' gender, age, ethnicity, education, and income were associated with experiencing the double burden of food and housing insecurity. Additionally, this study found a significant statistical interaction between residence location and employment status, with both employed and unemployed individuals in urban areas facing higher odds of experiencing the double burden of food and housing insecurity compared to retired individuals in either urban or rural areas; the relative excess risk due to interaction analysis suggests that increasing employment opportunities may have a more substantial impact on reducing this burden in urban areas. Findings from this study provide important insights into addressing the issue of food and housing insecurity, especially through improving employment opportunitiesfor vulnerable populations in Canada. Comprehensive systems-oriented intersectoral policies are much needed to improve households' experience of multiple need insecurities.

Agriculture has become an extremely vulnerable industry to the impacts of climate variability and change. Thus, strengthening adaptation capacity to climate change in agriculture is a societal priority in most of countries in the world, especially in the developing countries where a large number of people depended on agricultural production. The results of the study show that climate change signals have been really clear in Ky Son commune through increasing extreme weather events, especially drought and hot spell. Farmers in Ky Son commune have revealed a lot of risks caused by climate change for their agricultural production. Farmers in the commune have considered adaptive strategies to climate change in agricultural production, of which weather forecasts update and changing crop varieties are the most popular adaptive strategies. The study indicated 7 factors that have significant effects on farmers’ decision in adaptation to climate change in agricultural production in the Ky Son commune, of which attendance in the training courses is the factor that have highest effect level. The study proposed the policies to improve farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change in agricultural production in Ky Son commune including: (1) Broadening training courses on climate change; (2) Continuing the preferential credit; (3) Promoting large-scale production patterns; and (4) Downscaling and Localizing weather forecast information.

Nepal is one of the four most vulnerable countries affected by climate change in the world. Climate change has been occurred in Terai, hills and mountain of Nepal resulting change in agriculture systems. Global food production of major staples crops of rice, maize, wheat and soybean, and marine resources are decreasing. Nepal is blessed with number of natural flora and fauna which could address negative impact of climate change resulting food and nutritional insecurity. Emphasis should be given to develop technologies address negative impact of climate change. Nepal has been trying to develop some adoptive ways such as development of climate resilient technology encompassing crop varieties, animal breeds; agronomic practices that could address vagaries of climate change and sustain food and nutritional security. In Nepal, the effect of climate change is more pronounced in hills and mountains with respect to increase in temperature than that of Terai. In this paper, bird’s eye views on issues of climate change, negative impact of climate change on food and nutritional security and coping mechanisms to tackle all of such concerns of climate change in agriculture in general and food and nutritional security in particular have been illustrated in ways climate change could be addressed to limit its negative consequences on agriculture as well.Agronomy Journal of Nepal (Agron JN) vol. 4, 2016, Page: 25-37

Nepal has been persistently encountering food insecurity and under-nutrition. It is therefore utmost important to determine the factors responsible for influencing food insecurity in Nepal. This study examines the factors determining food insecurity in Nepal applying binary logistic models for food poverty, household with inadequate food consumption and poor dietary diversity using data from Nepal Living Standard Survey 2010/11. Food security was determined to be strongly associated with education level and age of household head, household with higher female education level, larger farm size with higher ratio of irrigated land, better access to markets, roads and cooperatives, better household assets and remittance recipient households. Food insecure is relatively more prevalent in rural areas with higher dependent on rain-fed agriculture, higher dependency ratio and larger family size. Improving both physical and economic access to foods, together with investment in education and agriculture could help to reduce food insecurity and hunger from Nepal.

Comparing Food Security Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Considerations When Choosing Measures

The climate crisis poses a severe threat to agricultural production and farmers' livelihoods, while the agricultural sector is simultaneously identified as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, farmers face a Dual Crisis, where they are both the victim of climate change and a target of regulation. This study examines the environmental changes in agriculture caused by the climate crisis, analyzes the resulting policy and institutional transformations, and ultimately proposes legal and institutional measures for the protection of farmers' rights. First, the paper diagnoses the current status of crop damage and emission management based on impact evaluations. It reviews the development of information and warning systems and adaptive cultivation technologies. Subsequently, it evaluates the deficiencies in the scope and compensation levels of existing disaster relief programs under the Agricultural and Fisheries Disaster Countermeasures Act and crop insurance under the Agricultural and Fisheries Disaster Insurance Act. It also examines the limitations of current water management legislation in addressing severe droughts and floods. Furthermore, the study comprehensively reviews safety insurance systems designed to protect farmers' health from exposure to extreme temperatures and explores basic income schemes aimed at mitigating unpredictable income losses due to the climate crisis. The analysis finds that current frameworks suffer from a lack of balance between disaster compensation and emission regulation, and the mechanisms to safeguard farmers' livelihoods are insufficient. We recommend expanding the compensation scope of the Agricultural and Fisheries Disaster Countermeasures Act and the Agricultural and Fisheries Disaster Insurance Act to include agricultural income loss. Additionally, we propose enacting dedicated Agricultural Water Management Laws, strengthening farmers’ safety and health insurance, and introducing stable income support systems. Finally, the paper outlines an institutional roadmap to ensure that climate response policies harmonize with food security and secure sustainable livelihoods for farmers.

Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate.