Cultivar Coefficient Estimator for the Cropping System Model Based on Time-Series Data: A Case Study for Soybean

Abstract

HighlightsSoftware was developed for estimation of DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean cultivar coefficients.Phenology-related coefficients were estimated based on observed phenological events.Growth-related cultivar coefficients were estimated based on time-series observations.Cultivar coefficients were optimized based on single- and multiple-experiment data sets.Abstract. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is one of the most popular software solutions for predicting crop growth and yield while capturing the effects of management practices and interactions between the crop and the environment. Accurate estimation of the crop cultivar coefficients that govern in-season growth and development is critical for correct yield estimates. The manual cultivar coefficient estimation process is time-consuming and results in user-dependent, subjective optimums that are difficult to reproduce. Typically, end-of-season observations (point-based) are used for estimating dynamic in-season biomass accumulation rates. The objective of this study was to develop a time-series estimator (TSE) capable of using multiple in-season observations for estimating the coefficients that define in-season growth and biomass partitioning. Using the TSE, cultivar coefficients were estimated based on multiple in-season observations of leaf area index (LAI) and shoot, leaf, and grain dry matter weights. The cultivar coefficients were estimated from single- and multiple-treatment (seasons and locations) in-season observations. This was done for two cultivars for six management × environment combinations. Estimated multiple-treatment based cultivar coefficients were evaluated with an independent data set and compared to DSSAT standard (manual) coefficients and the cultivar coefficients estimated with the GLUE method. The average normalized root mean squared error (nRSME) for LAI and shoot, leaf, and grain weights was 26% lower for one cultivar and about the same for the other cultivar when compared to the DSSAT standard. Because GLUE uses end-of-season point-based cultivar coefficient estimation, the grain weight over time was underestimated in earlier phases and more accurate toward harvest. The TSE-estimated cultivar coefficients based on 346 in-season observations across multiple target variables and six experiments more accurately reflected in-season growth and grain weight without compromising final grain weight predictions. Keywords: . CROPGRO-Soybean, DSSAT, Genetic coefficients, Normalized root mean square error minimization, Time-seris observations.