Abstract
Major objectives of the Japanese earthquake prediction research program for the period 2009–2013 are to create earthquake forecasting models and begin the prospective testing of these models against recorded seismicity. For this purpose, the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo has joined an international partnership to create a Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Here, we describe a new infrastructure for developing and evaluating forecasting models—the CSEP Japan Testing Center—as well as some preliminary testing results. On 1 November 2009, the Testing Center started a prospective and competitive earthquake predictability experiment using the seismically active and well-instrumented region of Japan as a natural laboratory.
Highlights
Japanese research projects aimed of scientific earthquake prediction have primarily focused on a better understanding of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence and the development of predictive simulation technologies based on physical modeling of earthquakes (Hirata, 2004)
Together with other subprograms associated with predictive simulation analysis of crustal dynamics, the project on “Earthquake Forecast System based on the Seismicity of Japan” has begun research on this task
The main purpose of this article is to give a summary of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) Japan Testing Center and first test results
Summary
Japanese research projects aimed of scientific earthquake prediction have primarily focused on a better understanding of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence and the development of predictive simulation technologies based on physical modeling of earthquakes (Hirata, 2004). Less emphasis has been placed on the creation and prospective testing of earthquake forecasting models This objective has recently become a key challenge under the national “Observation and Research Program for Prediction of Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption (2009–2013)” (Hirata, 2009). A key component of this project is the Japan Testing Center, a unique cyber infrastructure for the development and testing of stationary and time-varying seismicity forecasting models for Japan. This is one of several testing centers of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), a global project for earthquake predictability research (Jordan, 2006). RELM aimed at generating a suite of earthquake forecast models for California and testing them rigorously against future ob-
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