Crisis Management in the Twenty-First Century: “Unthinkable” Events in “Inconceivable” Contexts

As risk analysis and risk management get increasingly caught up in political debates, a new way of looking at and defining the risks of modern technologies becomes necessary

The article considers the importance and main aspects of financial risk management in the conditions of the modern globalized world. The authors emphasize the relevance of the problem, examining theoretical approaches and modern methods of risk assessment and management. Special emphasis is placed on practical recommendations that will help organizations effectively cope with financial challenges and ensure sustainable development. The article also includes an analysis of technological innovations in the field of risk management and their impact on the strategic planning of companies. The material concludes with conclusions that summarize the main theses of the study and suggest directions for further scientific development in this area. the role of international cooperation and global standards in the field of financial risk management is highlighted. The authors consider how globalization and international integration affect the risk management strategies of various companies. In addition, the article analyzes the ethical aspects of risk management, taking into account the social responsibility of business and its impact on stakeholders. Special attention is paid to the practical application of theoretical knowledge. The authors provide specific examples of the implementation of modern risk management techniques in various sectors of the economy, demonstrating their effectiveness and practical value. It is emphasized that the correct approach to financial risk management can be a key success factor for modern organizations, helping them adapt to rapidly changing market conditions and ensure long-term competitiveness. Psychological aspects of risk management are considered, including behavioral factors that can influence decision-making in the field of finance. Understanding these aspects is essential for developing effective risk management strategies and approaches. The need for continuous training and adaptation in the conditions of constant changes in the financial markets is substantiated. The modern business world requires from specialists deep knowledge, flexibility and readiness to quickly respond to new challenges. It has been proven that financial risk management is not only an important component of a successful business strategy, but also a key element of corporate culture, which contributes to the creation of trust between stakeholders and ensuring the stability and long-term development of the organization.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been recognized to date only in individuals homozygous for methionine at PRNP codon 129. Here we show that transgenic mice expressing human PrP methionine 129, inoculated with either bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or variant CJD prions, may develop the neuropathological and molecular phenotype of vCJD, consistent with these diseases being caused by the same prion strain. Surprisingly, however, BSE transmission to these transgenic mice, in addition to producing a vCJD-like phenotype, can also result in a distinct molecular phenotype that is indistinguishable from that of sporadic CJD with PrP(Sc) type 2. These data suggest that more than one BSE-derived prion strain might infect humans; it is therefore possible that some patients with a phenotype consistent with sporadic CJD may have a disease arising from BSE exposure.

As the number of human deaths from avian influenza grows and as the disease spreads geographically, fears of a 21st century influenza epidemic or pandemic mount. Even if the disease does not reach epidemic proportions imminently, the fears are nonetheless well-founded. Inductive reasoning leads to the conclusion that an influenza epidemic will arise, as such epidemics have arisen many times before, including 3 times during the 20th century. The relevant questions, therefore, are when the next one will emerge and how bad it will be.1 Avian influenza is just one of dozens of zoonotic diseases that have caused and will cause considerable human fear, suffering, and death. (Indeed, some have suggested that “[a]ll human viral infections were initially zoonotic in origin,”2(p6) although the precise animal source and route of transmission to humans is often a matter of some dispute.) I cannot mention all of these diseases; thus, only some well-known examples are provided, along with the probable source. There is at least some evidence that, similar to avian influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome arose in the live-animal (i.e., “wet”) markets of China.3 Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease probably arose from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).4,5 And the source of HIV, which causes AIDS, is widely thought to be the simian immunodeficiency virus that is found in nonhuman primates.6,7 Although some zoonoses are probably unavoidable, much human suffering resulting from zoonotic diseases could probably have been avoided had humans treated animals better. Consider, for example, the wet markets from which an influenza or severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic may be launched. In these markets, live animals of diverse kinds are kept in large numbers and in cruelly close quarters ready for sale and fresh slaughter. The concentration of animals, their overlapping sojourns in the markets (allowing disease to spread through vast numbers of animals), and their interactions with humans (facilitating human infection) make these markets ripe for zoonoses.8 Once an epidemic starts among animals, it can spread to animals reared in less cruel conditions. If humans did not eat wet market animals, there would be fewer of them (because fewer would be bred), the animals would not suffer from being housed in close quarters, and they would not be slaughtered. Consequently, the risk of zoonoses would be greatly diminished. In the case of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, humans would not have become infected had some humans not killed or eaten cows infected with BSE. Moreover, BSE would not spread among cattle if humans did not process offal, including neural matter from BSE-infected cattle, to produce feed for other cattle, a practice prompted by the volume of cattle humans eat. If the plausible hypothesis that HIV resulted from simian immunodeficiency virus is indeed true, then the most likely causal route of transmission was through infected simian blood during the butchering of these animals. The butchering itself was most likely for the purposes of providing nonhuman primate meat (“bushmeat”) for human consumption, a practice that continues today. It is unlikely, of course, that those who make use of animals in the above ways will recognize their treatment of animals as maltreatment. However, there is good reason for characterizing it as such. There is now an ample body of philosophical literature that compellingly demonstrates that the ways in which most humans treat animals is wrong.9–12 Almost all humans can now not only survive but also thrive without consuming animal flesh or using animal skins and furs. Thus those who persist in these practices treat the most important animal interests—interests in continued life and the avoidance of suffering—as less important than very trivial human interests, including carnivorous gastronomic experiences.13 Even those who deny that there is anything wrong with treating animals in this way should now recognize that thwarting important animal interests sometimes causes considerable harm to humans, even if some minor human interests are satisfied along the way. It is curious, therefore, that changing the way humans treat animals—most basically, ceasing to eat them or, at the very least, radically limiting the quantity of them that are eaten—is largely off the radar as a significant preventive measure. Such a change, if sufficiently adopted or imposed, could still reduce the chances of the much-feared influenza epidemic. It would be even more likely to prevent unknown future diseases that, in the absence of this change, may result from farming animals intensively and from killing them for food. Yet humanity does not consider this option. Insofar as the focus is not on cures for the resultant diseases, attention is only given to lesser preventive measures. Some of these, such as slaughtering animals before they are brought to markets, may bring modest improvements to the treatment of animals. However, other preventive measures, such as developing a vaccine, do not require humans to improve their treatment of animals at all. Indeed, the curative and many of the preventive measures on which humans focus are ones that often involve further suffering and death for animals. For example, because humans have contracted diseases from maltreating animals, others then experiment on animals in a bid to find either a vaccine or a cure for the diseases that result from the maltreatment. Although these medical interventions are being developed, millions of animals are culled, often painfully, in the hope of preventing imminent disease or epidemic in humans. Even those who think that experimenting on animals for human medical benefit is not wrong should be at least somewhat troubled by such experimentation when the ailment it seeks to fix could have been prevented. They should be even more troubled when the relevant prevention would have been to take animal interests more seriously. In response, it may be said that even if current diseases could have been prevented, they were not, and thus scientists must do what they can now to minimize human suffering and death. Whether or not one agrees with this argument, it cannot justify failing to take the preventive measures now that would obviate the need for employing them repeatedly in the future. Failure to think ahead cannot repeatedly be excused. Humanity’s continued consumption of animals is not only morally problematic but also highly imprudent. Preventive action that focuses exclusively on the proximate causes of disease and plague is more risky than long-term preventive action that attends to equally crucial upstream causal factors. To rely on neutralizing a proximate cause leaves little or no room for error. The longer view, by contrast, enables one to prevent a threat before it becomes imminent. Thus, there are many more opportunities for prevention. Humans have suffered a great deal as a result of the mistreatment of animals, but that does not make the human suffering a punishment for the mistreatment; it is merely a consequence. Speaking of a causal connection does not imply an intentional agent administering the consequent as retribution for the antecedent. In any event, those humans who suffer are not just the ones responsible for animal mistreatment. Innocents are often adversely affected. When the (infected) chickens come home to roost, it may be another person, possibly from the next generation, who suffers or dies from avian influenza. Those who consume animals not only harm those animals and endanger themselves, but they also threaten the well-being of other humans who currently or will later inhabit the planet. To switch avian images, it is time for humans to remove their heads from the sand and recognize the risk to themselves that can arise from their maltreatment of other species.

BOVINE spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) that during the last three decades has overturned all the paradigms of surveillance, diagnosis, legislation and public concern. Several origins...

Impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and avian influenza on U.S. meat demand

This study investigates whether Korean news media pay more attention to emerging diseases than chronic ones, and whether they closely follow the changes in the magnitude of health risks of chronic or well-known diseases. These two features are expected to appear as the result of surveillance function served by health journalism that should be the main source of the public's risk perception. The number of stories published in 10 newspapers containing the words, 'SARS,' 'Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy,' 'Avian Influenza,' and 'Influenza A virus' was compared with the number of stories on chronic or well-known diseases. We also counted the annual number of stories, published in a 12-year period, containing following terms: 'cancer,' 'diabetes,' 'hypertension,' 'pneumonia,' and 'tuberculosis.' The number was compared with the actual mortality of each disease. Although cancer represented the primary cause of mortality, the newspapers covered key emerging diseases more than cancer or other well-known diseases. Also, media coverage of 'pneumonia' and 'tuberculosis' did not vary in accordance with changes in the mortality of each disease. However, the news media coverage did vary in accordance with the mortality of 'cancer,' 'diabetes,' and 'hypertension.' Korean health journalism was found to have both strong and weak points. The news media reduced the relative level of attention given to pneumonia and tuberculosis. Bearing in mind the major influence of news coverage on risk perception, health professionals need to be more proactive about helping to improve Korean health journalism.

This paper demonstrates that EU-27 meat exports underwent structural changes following the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United States (2003) and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the European Union (2006). The two diseases caused short-term (11-month) drops in beef meat and poultry demand but increased export demand for pork meat, beef offal, pork offal, and other meat. These results—except for a decline in U.S. beef offal exports—are similar to those found by modeling U.S. meat export demand after the BSE incident of December 23, 2003. By 2012, U.S. beef meat exports had recovered and exceeded their pre-BSE levels, but EU beef meat exports were still 31 percent lower than in 2003.

The problem of improving the safety and sustainability of transport in emergency situations holds a special place in the national security of the state. With transport enterprises there are associated state interests such as territorial integrity, the unity of economic space, provision of external economic relations of Russia and its integration into the global economic system. The study showed that in the field of risk management through extremely situations (ES) on the transport it’s situation, when the systematization and deepening of knowledge is extremely difficult without specifying of the conceptual foundations of the theory of risk management and ensure its semantic content in line with the true essence of display of the phenomena of risk management. Moreover, the question of risk management have not been sufficiently formalized and structured risk management model demand development. Here it should be recognized that the study of tools of emergency risk management on the transport, so far not received adequate attention. As a result of the situation, when the existing set of theoretical propositions for risk management of emergency on transport could not determine how to operate effectively in the new environment, and the practice of risk management is largely insufficient. These circumstances caused the act-almost, goal and objectives of the study. The purpose of this study is to develop new, and adapt existing instruments of risk management of emergency transport to improve the efficiency of transport enterprises (TE). To achieve this goal the following tasks were accomplished: 1. The mathematical measure of preventing a terrorist act based on the selection of the most probable places and the method of implementing the attack, as well as establishing a sufficiently adequate model of the intruder, i. e. parameters describing the size, capability and readiness of terrorists. 2. The approach to risk assessment of ТЕ based on the application of the method of data fitting and the method of expert estimations. 3. The proposed use of modern technology, broadening the range of instruments to prevent emergency situations and characterized by the use of: scanning objects; preventive measures; control of objects on the ТЕ; inform on actions in case of emergencies. Theoretical and methodological basis of research is works of domestic and foreign scientists on risk management, regulatory - legal acts of the Russian Federation, methodological developments in the field of management of transport enterprise in the conditions of uncertainty. During the research used the general scientific methods and methods of system analysis, mathematical and statistical methods, sources on the Internet, impact of research of the consulting companies in the field of risk management, the empirical and calculated data, obtained by the author. The theoretical significance of research results is development of theoretical positions on the risk management of emergency situations on transport in the modern conditions. Developed findings expand the theoretical base of this research area and can be used in further scientific developments in the field of risk management. The practical significance of the study is to create tools to improve the effectiveness of risk management of emergency situations on transport. The tools can be used for further scientific studies of, in curricula of universities and training courses management training.

Origin of bovine spongiform encephalopathy

After the discovery of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), scientific advances quickly led to post-mortem tests to identify late-stage bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) disease. These were first used in Switzerland in 1999 for active BSE surveillance of a) fallen and emergency-slaughter bovines (risk stock) and b) 5% sample of routinely slaughtered cattle over 30 months of age. In 1999 and 2000, Switzerland's estimated 103 BSE positives per 1000000 adult cattle put it in the same BSE risk classification as UK and Portugal. In July 2000, the European Union's Scientific Steering Committee published its methodology (and first vetted results) for geographical BSE risk (GBR) assessment in cattle. Member states with no BSE cases found themselves, on rational assessment, classified as GBR III (BSE likely but not confirmed, or confirmed at a lower level). Because of Europe's thus highly assessed BSE risks, active BSE surveillance of adult cattle in all member states began in January 2001 using one of three validated post-mortem tests. Implementation was variable across member states in January to March 2001 but, where operational, active surveillance was typically achieved for around 13300 routinely slaughtered and 1000 risk stock per month per 1000000 adult cattle; BSE positive rates were 60 and 600 per 1000000 routinely slaughtered and risk cattle, respectively. By the second half of 2001, active BSE surveillance was operating reasonably in most member states, although anomalies persisted. Performance and results for July to December 2001 and for January to June 2002 are considered in detail. The BSE positive rate decreased substantially in UK, Portugal and Ireland between semesters, whereas Spain's rates increased for both routinely slaughtered and risk bovines. Based on 1450000 routinely slaughtered and 135000 risk stock as standard, France could have expected 153 BSE positives in July to December 2001 (109 in January to June 2002); Italy 154 (67); and Germany only 39 (48). When sample-based surveillance data were scaled up and combined with clinical BSE cases, Great Britain's BSE positives were estimated at around 400 per 1000000 adult cattle in 2002 compared with over 1000 per 1000000 adult cattle in 2000. Age distributions for cattle subject to active BSE surveillance have been underexploited. The major transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) which affects sheep and goats is scrapie. Passive surveillance of scrapie is associated with substantial under-reporting. Susceptibility to scrapie depends strongly on sheep genotype; but resistance to scrapie does not necessarily confer resistance of sheep to BSE. Because of uncertainty about the true prevalence of scrapie-infected adult sheep and concern that BSE in sheep may be missed, the European Union pre-empted its planned evaluation of rapid post-mortem TSE tests in sheep by requiring the rapid TSE testing of small ruminants from April 2002 with one of the three cattle-validated tests. Basic requirements for active TSE surveillance in sheep were: random sample of 6000 fallen sheep and of 60000 routinely slaughtered adult native sheep to be tested per member state by end March 2003. Lower surveillance targets were set for countries with under 1000000 adult sheep. Adequately to map scrapie-susceptible genotypes and identify resistant genotypes, a random sample of 500 routinely slaughtered native adult sheep was to be genotyped, together with each TSE rapid test positive adult sheep and two sets of three suitably sampled controls. By the end of August 2002, when 41% of the initial surveillance time had elapsed, only 20% of the European joint target for routinely slaughtered adult sheep had been completed, but that for fallen sheep was exceeded. Except in Ireland, the upper 95% confidence bound on TSE prevalence exceeded 500 per 1000000 routinely slaughtered adult sheep in reporting-compliant countries with more than 1000000 adult sheep. The UK, Greece, Italy and France were likely to approach the goal of 100 TSE rapid test positives on completion of their assigned first-year surveillance target for sheep. Results from the recommended genotyping of TSE positive adult sheep and controls for use in inferring differential TSE-positive susceptibility by genotype are awaited. Only by genotyping 5000-50000 TSE-positive adult sheep, a massive undertaking even on the European scale, will it become clear whether scrapie resistance is relative rather than absolute. This paper details Europe's quantitative evolution in TSE surveillance.

Science, policy, and politics: the case of BSE

Until recently, transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) disease in cattle was thought to be caused by a single agent strain, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) (classical BSE or BSE-C). However, due to the initiation of a large-scale surveillance programme throughout Europe, two atypical BSE strains, bovine amyloidotic spongiform encephalopathy (BASE, also named BSE-L) and BSE-H have since been discovered. These atypical BSE isolates have been previously transmitted to a range of transgenic mouse models overexpressing PrP from different species at different levels, on a variety of genetic backgrounds. To control for genetic background and expression level in the analysis of these isolates, we performed here a comprehensive comparison of the neuropathological and molecular properties of all three BSE agents (BASE, BSE-C and BSE-H) upon transmission into the same gene-targeted transgenic mouse line expressing the bovine prion protein (Bov6) and a wild-type control of the same genetic background. Significantly, upon challenge with these BSE agents, we found that BASE did not produce shorter survival times in these mice compared with BSE-C, contrary to previous studies using overexpressing bovine transgenic mice. Amyloid plaques were only present in mice challenged with atypical BSE and neuropathological features, including intensity of PrP deposition in the brain and severity of vacuolar degeneration were less pronounced in BASE compared with BSE-C-challenged mice.

TRANSMISSIBLE spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), or prion diseases, are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases that comprise scrapie in sheep and goats, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease...