Credit Allocation to Private Sector and Growth: An ARDL Analysis for a Transitional Economy

The paper investigates the correlation between stock market, real estate market, and economic growth in Vietnam, which is an emerging country. Quarterly data in Vietnam from the third quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2018 were utilized. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the results reveal that economic growth is positively associated with stock market and real estate market. An unprecedented finding of this study is that economic growth (GDP) is more correlated to stock market efficiency (SME) than net trading value by foreign investors (FI). Moreover, global financial crisis (GFC) exerts a negative impact on economic growth and real estate market in Vietnam. Further, net trading value by foreign investors (FI) also negatively influences real estate market (REM) in the short term. The study has greatly succeeded in giving first empirical evidence on the relationship between stock market, real estate market, and economic growth in Vietnam. More than that, the results show the key role of global financial crisis in this correlation. The findings are valuable to economies around the world, especially bringing a practical and meaningful value to developing countries like Vietnam.

To analyze the impact of FDI and TO on economic growth in Vietnam, the research team collected yearly data from 1991--2023 from the Vietnam General Statistics Office on the IFS-IMF and WB sites. The study used the VECM model with the following endogenous variables: foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness (TO), real gross domestic product (GDPR), and the interest rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve (IFED). Research results have shown that maintaining economic growth over the years drives economic growth. Moreover, the research supports the view that foreign direct investment and trade openness play important roles in promoting economic growth (g) in Vietnam. The authors propose some recommendations for attracting and using FDI and increasing trade openness to encourage economic growth in Vietnam.

The advent of technology and rapid globalisation, trade policies are observed time to time due to the continuous uncertainty in world economy. In this manner, this study has focused on the trade openness and economic growth in Vietnam. The aim of this study was to examine how trade openness can impact economic growth in case of Vietnam. Therefore, quantitative analysis is carried out and secondary data was collected for the purpose of investigating the impact of trade openness on the economic growth in Vietnam. The researcher applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing model with the help of E-views to determine the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of Vietnam. From the analysis, it can be identified that there is no long term impact of the trade openness on the economic growth of Vietnam. However, the short term impact of the trade openness on the economic growth of Vietnam has been found in this study. The model will be reestimated by changing the data series.

Objective: This article examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and Vietnam's economic growth in the period 1991-2023. Theoretical Framework: Based on the theory of foreign investment and economic growth of economists such as Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992), Jones (1995), Binh & Lang (2008), and Tung & Duong (2019), the research team built the regression model that shows the relationship between FDI and GDPr. Method: The author collected data on FDI, and GDPr (variable representing economic growth) in the period 1991-2023 from GSO, International Financial Statistics, WB. The collected data was analyzed by software Eviews12. Results and Discussion: the results showed GDPR of one previous year and GDPR of the year under consideration has a positive relationship when last year's GDP fluctuated by 1%, GDPR of the year under consideration will fluctuate by 0.381721%. Between FDI and GDPR, there is a positive relationship, when FDI fluctuates by 1%, GDPR will fluctuate by 0.020825%. Research Implications: Research results support the view that foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in promoting economic growth (g) in Vietnam. Originality/Value: From the research results, the author makes a number of recommendations to promote the attraction and effective use of foreign direct investment capital, supporting economic growth.

This paper analyses and forecasts of carbon dioxide (CO 1 ) emissions, renewable energy consumption, and gross domestic product (GDP) for Vietnam during the period of 2010 to 2019. These three variables are important factors that affect the energy efficiency, economic growth as well as climate change in Vietnam. Thus, this paper employs the grey prediction models including GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) to predict three variables. According to forecasting results, the CO 1 emissions of Vietnam will grow by 3 %, the renewable energy consumption is not increase significantly, and the GDP is forecasted to increase 5% in 2019 compared with 2010. The study provides policy makers with useful information in finding the solutions to improve energy efficiency, economic growth and environmental protection in Vietnam.

This study's goal is to examine how technology and human capital interact with education and health indicators on economic growth and poverty alleviation in Vietnam. The second data of World Bank data is utilized in this study. We use the autoregressive moving average model. The research period starts from 2008 to 2021 in Vietnam. We found that technology and technological innovation have a very significant impact on Vietnam's economic growth, strengthened by education and health. However, the poverty rate is an obstacle to economic growth in Vietnam. This shows that human capital and technology are the strongest factors in increasing economic growth and reducing poverty.

This study examines how the quality of public administration influenced local economic growth in Vietnam from 2011 to 2019. Based on previous studies, we evaluate this impact through the Cobb–Douglas function includes government capital, thereby examining both the individual and interactive effects of local government expenditures and quality of public administration on local economic growth in Vietnam. The system GMM method (SGMM) was used to estimate the model with data collected from 61 provinces and cities in Vietnam in the period 2011–2019. The findings suggest that local government expenditures and quality of public administration positively influence local economic growth in Vietnam. Thereby, the authors propose policy implications to improve the efficiency of local government expenditures on local economic growth in Vietnam in terms of public administration.

This study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess the impact of foreign direct investment, trade openness, technological innovation, and industrial sector performance on economic growth in Vietnam during the period 1993-2023. The results show that, in the short run, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and industrial sector performance have positive impacts on economic growth, while technological innovation has a negative impact. In the long run, foreign direct investment and technological innovation positively affect economic growth, whereas trade openness and industrial sector performance have negative impacts. Based on these findings, the study suggests several policy implications: prioritizing the attraction of foreign investment projects that utilize modern technologies; promoting comparative advantages in international trade; diversifying export markets; restructuring production towards the development of high-tech industries; and fostering technological innovation to generate new technologies and knowledge, thereby supporting rapid and sustainable economic growth.

Public investment has been a cornerstone of Vietnam’s economic strategy, particularly as the country targets a GDP growth rate of 6.5–7% in 2025. This study evaluates the effectiveness of major public investment projects in stimulating aggregate demand and economic growth in Vietnam, while also analyzing barriers to efficient capital disbursement. Using a quantitative approach, we employ an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to assess the short- and long-term impacts of public investment on economic growth, private investment, and aggregate demand. Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) and other sources spanning 2000–2023 are utilized. The results confirm that public investment significantly boosts aggregate demand and economic growth in the short term but exhibits diminishing returns in the long term, consistent with an inverted-U relationship. Key barriers to capital disbursement, including bureaucratic inefficiencies, regulatory fragmentation, and coordination challenges, are identified through regression analysis and qualitative insights. Policy recommendations include streamlining administrative procedures, enhancing transparency, and prioritizing infrastructure projects to maximize economic impacts.

This study considers the relationship between investment in the manufacturing and processing industries and economic growth in Vietnam. This study applies an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to reassess the long- and short-term relationships between industrial investment and economic growth from 1998 to 2023. It has been found that in both the long and short term, investments in this sector have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The results further show that labor negatively affects growth in the long run, but is favorable in the short run. The verdict for the role of exports is that more evidence is required before any conclusive analysis can be conducted. Reinvestment in the manufacturing and processing industries for further economic growth is evident in the foregoing analysis. On the other hand, this research provides insight into the optimization of the utilization of resources and future sustainability by the government.

This article aims to examine the effect of remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and imports on economic growth in Vietnam, using a set of time series data in the period of 2000-2018, applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Also, an Error Correction Model (ECM) derived from ARDL model is utilized to check the short-run dynamics. From the empirical result of the study, it is showed that there is a long-term relationship among remittances, FDI, imports and economic growth in Vietnam during the period time of study. Specifically, remittances and imports have significantly positive impacts while FDI has negative influence on economic growth. In the short run, the growth effects of remittances and FDI are similar to those in the long run while the effect of imports is statistically insignificant. Finally, the model passes relevant diagnostic tests for time series data and the parameters are proved to be stable over time.

The paper examines the relationship between the economic integration and growth nexus in Vietnam using powerful quantitative methods, specifically the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Granger causality test. The study focuses on three types of economic integration, including overall integration, financial integration and trade integration, which affected economic growth in Vietnam from 1986 to 2015. The key finding from this study is that when three types of economic integration are considered together, integration provides positive impacts on economic growth. In addition, causal relationship exists between overall integration and financial integration, and between trade integration and financial integration. As such, financial integration is absolutely important to economic growth in Vietnam. On the grounds of these findings, the Vietnamese government should carefully outline socio-economic development strategies to maintain political stability and to derive benefits from economic integration and globalization.

This paper examines the role of public investment in promoting economic growth in Vietnam, providing a theoretical and empirical framework for understanding its impact. It seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of public investment in stimulating long-term economic development and to propose policy recommendations for improving its efficiency. Accordingly, the research utilizes time-series data from 1995 to 2019 and applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to assess both the short-term and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth. The study also conducts an extensive review of domestic and international literature to establish the theoretical basis for analysis. The findings indicate a significant positive relationship between public investment and Vietnam’s economic growth. However, while public investment contributes to long-term economic expansion, its short-term effects appear less pronounced compared to private and foreign direct investments. Inefficiencies in resource allocation and governance issues are identified as key challenges limiting the effectiveness of public investment. Public investment plays a vital role in sustaining Vietnam’s economic growth, but its efficiency must be enhanced through improved governance, strategic project selection, and effective allocation of resources. Strengthening institutional frameworks and promoting public-private partnerships are crucial to maximizing the benefits of public investment. In addition, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for policy reforms to enhance the efficiency and impact of public investment. Recommendations include legal improvements, decentralization of budget allocation, better financial planning, and increased transparency in investment projects to support sustainable economic development.

PurposeThis study intended to analyze the impact of nonrenewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions on per capita income growth in Vietnam in the period 1990–2019.Design/methodology/approachThe present study adopts the technique of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration for the annual data collection of Vietnam.FindingsThe results of the study show that in the long term, nonrenewable energy consumption increases per capita income, but CO2 emissions reduce per capita income. In the short run, changes in nonrenewable energy consumption and renewable energy consumption promote per capita income growth in Vietnam. However, changes in nonrenewable energy consumption in the past have had a negative impact on the current income growth of Vietnamese people.Originality/valueThe current study provides new insights into the growth effect of nonrenewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The papers suggests important implications to Vietnam in setting the long-run policies to boost the effect of energy consumption and CO2 emissions on growth in Vietnam in the coming time.

This work investigated the dynamic relationship between higher education and economic growth in Vietnam using annual data collected ten years from 2010 to 2019. The auto-regressive distributive lag framework was used along with the error correction term to investigate the long-run relationship between real gross domestic product, enrollment in higher education, gross capital formation, and labor. The study used the Granger causality test to assess the relationship between higher education and economic expansion. Follow as the test results, a unidirectional causality running from higher education to economic growth have observed. The necessary diagnostic tests have applied to check the reliability and acceptability of model outputs, and they have been found suitable.