Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the urban real estate market around the world. This study regards the impact of the pandemic as a quasi-natural experiment, using the Difference in Difference model (DID) to examine the short-term impact of this severe public health crisis on the residential land and housing markets in the Yangtze River Delta. The study found that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant inhibitory effect on the average price of urban residential land and houses in the Yangtze River Delta. Although the currency oversupply has caused real estate prices in all cities to rise, the price of urban residential land decreased by 13.7% for each additional unit of epidemic severity. The greater the city’s resilience to the pressure of the COVID-19 pandemic, the faster its residential land prices will recover. Empirical research on the new house samples confirmed this conclusion. Local governments should continue to improve their ability to manage abnormal conditions, not only to prevent the spread of the epidemic, but also to gradually promote the recovery of the urban economy, strengthen urban resilience to better respond to health crises, and achieve sustainable urban development.
Highlights
In January 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan and spread rapidly
The research clarifies the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic, urban resilience and real estate prices, and found that urban resilience alleviated the negative impact of the epidemic on the real estate market, and provided some policy recommendations for the prevention and control of public crisis and urban governance
The empirical results of this paper show that urban resilience can effectively withstand the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the urban real estate market
Summary
In January 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan and spread rapidly. Based on the theoretical framework, this paper regards the COVID-19 pandemic as a quasi-natural experiment, selects the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta as the analysis object, and uses the Difference in Difference model to investigate the short-term impact of the COVID-19 on the prices of residential land and houses in the Yangtze River Delta. The research clarifies the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic, urban resilience and real estate prices, and found that urban resilience alleviated the negative impact of the epidemic on the real estate market, and provided some policy recommendations for the prevention and control of public crisis and urban governance. The interaction term is the urban Return-to-Work Index for each city
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