Coupled Optimization of Aircraft Design and Fleet Allocation with Uncertain Passenger Demand

Abstract

The design of future aircraft takes into great consideration the current market requirements and future needs of potential operators. In spite of such efforts, the design of new aircraft and the assignment of these aircraft to a specific route in the operator’s network are loosely coupled. This results in many aircraft operating on routes with significantly lower ranges than the design range of the aircraft and potential operational inefficiencies. In addition, increasing air traffic demand and the resulting climate impact of aircraft are of growing public concern. Reductions in future climate impact from air transportation require not only the design of efficient new individual aircraft, but also consideration of the operations of these aircraft during the design stage. This paper describes a multidisciplinary design optimization approach for the coupled optimization of aircraft and the simultaneous allocation of these aircraft types to routes in an operator’s network with uncertain passenger demand. The uncertainty characteristics of trip–demand for the routes in the network are considered to ensure the efficient utilization of these aircraft in the given network and to explore the effects of future trends in commercial aviation in terms of environmental considerations. The uncertainty characteristics of passenger demand are included in the allocation optimization problem through the use of discrete time simulation of the operations. This paper explores the potential benefits and tradeoffs in terms of environmental and cost considerations of coupling the design of new aircraft with their respective use by operators.