Cost-effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackgroundDespite the advent of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, pervasive inequities in global vaccination persist.MethodsWe projected health benefits and donor costs of delivering vaccines for up to 60% of the population in 91 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modeled a highly contagious (Re at model start = 1.7), low-virulence (IFR = 0.32%) “omicron-like” variant and a similarly contagious “severe” variant (IFR = 0.59%) over 360 days, accounting for country-specific age structure and healthcare capacity. Costs included vaccination startup (US$630 million) and per-person procurement and delivery (US$12.46/person vaccinated).ResultsIn the omicron-like scenario, increasing current vaccination coverage to achieve at least 15% in each of the 91 LMICs would prevent 11 million new infections and 120,000 deaths, at a cost of US$0.95 billion, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$670/year-of-life saved (YLS). Increases in vaccination coverage to 60% would additionally prevent up to 68 million infections and 160,000 deaths, with ICERs < US$8,000/YLS. ICERs were < US$4,000/YLS under the more severe variant scenario and generally robust to assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, uptake, and costs.ConclusionsFunding expanded COVID-19 vaccine delivery in LMICs would save hundreds of thousands of lives, be similarly or more cost-effective than other donor-funded global aid programs, and improve health equity.