Correlation of Space and Time of Fire Incidence leading to Fire Risk Forecasting Model

Abstract

Fire safety and prevention has always been a subject of concern in the Philippines, as fire incidents are a common cause of economic and ecological troubles every year. The aim of this study was to identify significant relationship of fire incidents in terms of location and time to build a model of fire risk forecasting in the capital city of Manila. A total of 3,506 fire incidents were recorded by the Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) during the six-year period from 2011 to 2016. The overall record are 3506 fire incidents included in the study which analyzed using the Pearson’s Chi-square statistical technique. The summer months February to May showed the utmost number of fire, and that most fire incidents occurred from 9 AM to 11 AM and from 6 PM to 10 PM. The highest number of fire incidents recorded happened in the densely-populated districts of Sampaloc and Tondo. The study shows that there are no significant relationship of location (space) to time and to day however in terms of location to month and year show highly significant. The findings of this study can prove useful to the BFP office in Manila, in that they need to look at recurring trends in fire incidents in terms of location and month to create programs aimed towards fire prevention awareness. This research can be extended to include other spatial factors such as weather conditions and geographical coordinates in the assessment of fire incidents.