Correction to “Life history traits influence environmental impacts on spatial population synchrony in European birds and butterflies”

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics has been identified in most taxonomic groups. Numerous studies have reported varying levels of spatial synchrony among closely‐related species, suggesting that species' characteristics may play a role in determining the level of synchrony. However, few studies have attempted to relate this synchrony to the ecological characteristics and/or life‐history traits of species. Yet, as to some extent the extinction risk may be related to synchrony patterns, identifying a link between species' characteristics and spatial synchrony is crucial, and would help us to define effective conservation planning. Here, we investigated whether species attributes and temperature synchrony (i.e. a proxy of the Moran effect) account for the differences in spatial population synchrony observed in 27 stream fish species in France. After measuring and testing the level of synchrony for each species, we performed a comparative analysis to detect the phylogenetic signal of these levels, and to construct various multi‐predictor models with species traits and temperature synchrony as covariates, while taking phylogenetic relatedness into account. We then performed model averaging on selected models to take model uncertainty into account in our parameter estimates. Fifteen of the 27 species displayed a significant level of synchrony. Synchrony was weak, but highly variable between species, and was not conserved across the phylogeny. We found that some species' characteristics significantly influenced synchrony levels. Indeed, the average model indicated that species associated with greater dispersal abilities, lower thermal tolerance, and opportunistic strategy displayed a higher degree of synchrony. These findings indicate that phylogeny and spatial temperature synchrony do not provide information pertinent for explaining the variations in species' synchrony levels, whereas the dispersal abilities, the life‐history strategies and the upper thermal tolerance limits of species do appear to be quite reliable predictors of synchrony levels.

Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions in a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species' life-history traits, such as pace of life, which may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration tactics in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that increasing generation time, a proxy for pace of life, would decrease spatial population synchrony and that migrants would be less synchronized than resident species. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We calculated the mean spatial population synchrony between log-transformed population growth rates or log-transformed abundances for each species and country separately. We investigated differences in synchrony across generation times in resident (n = 67), short-distance migrant (n = 86) and long-distance migrant (n = 39) bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short-distance migrants were more synchronized than long-distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration tactics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species-specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.

Large‐scale spatial synchrony is common in population dynamics. In nearly all empirical data sets, population synchrony decays with distance. Large‐scale spatial population synchrony of 20 common moth species was studied using 367 separate light‐trap time series of 3–27 years, at 13–19 localities in southern Finland. The maximum distance between trap sites was ca 1075 km. The degree of spatial synchrony in three weather variables (daily mean and minimum temperature, and daily total precipitation) from 15 weather stations was also studied. Data were analysed with spatial non‐parametric correlation functions (Sncf). Statistically significant large‐scale spatial synchrony in population fluctuations occurred in 85% of the species ( Scotopteryx chenopodiata , Eulithis populata , Chloroclysta citrata , Epirrita autumnata , Perizoma alchemillata , P. didymata , Eupithecia pusillata , Macaria wauaria , Itame brunneata , Cabera pusaria , C. exanthemata , Eilema lurideola , Rusina ferruginea , Amphipoea fucosa , Orthosia gothica , Cerapteryx graminis and Diarsia mendica ), as well as in all weather variables. Spatial synchrony decreased with distance (=distance decay) in 45% of the species, and there was no indication of distance decay in the remaining species. Climate change is likely to cause an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, and insects are strongly affected by such environmental stochasticity. In combination with the high frequency of large‐scale spatial synchrony, which did not show distance decay as a rule in these data, even currently common moth species may become threatened in the near future.

Disentangling empirically the many processes affecting spatial population synchrony is a challenge in population ecology. Two processes that could have major effects on the spatial synchrony of wild population dynamics are density dependence and variation in environmental conditions like temperature. Understanding these effects is crucial for predicting the effects of climate change on local and regional population dynamics. We quantified the direct contribution of local temperature and density dependence to spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of nine fish species inhabiting the Barents Sea. First, we estimated the degree to which the annual spatial autocorrelations in density are influenced by temperature. Second, we estimated and mapped the local effects of temperature and strength of density dependence on annual changes in density. Finally, we measured the relative effects of temperature and density dependence on the spatial synchrony in changes in density. Temperature influenced the annual spatial autocorrelation in density more in species with greater affinities to the benthos and to warmer waters. Temperature correlated positively with changes in density in the eastern Barents Sea for most species. Temperature had a weak synchronizing effect on density dynamics, while increasing strength of density dependence consistently desynchronised the dynamics. Quantifying the relative effects of different processes affecting population synchrony is important to better predict how population dynamics might change when environmental conditions change. Here, high degrees of spatial synchrony in the population dynamics remained unexplained by local temperature and density dependence, confirming the presence of additional synchronizing drivers, such as trophic interactions or harvesting.

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E.autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O.brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O.brumata than E.autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O.brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E.autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.

Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year-round residents or long-distance migrants. The dissimilarity of the spatial extent of synchrony across species suggests that most populations are not regulated at similar spatial scales. The spatial scale of the population synchrony patterns we describe is likely larger than the actual scale of population regulation, and in turn, the scale of population regulation is undoubtedly larger than the scale of individual ecological requirements.

An important determinant of population dynamics is the degree of spatial covariance in demographic processes. Positive spatial covariance in demographic parameters and, consequently, spatial synchrony in population density dynamics develop whenever the spatial domain of determinants of demography exceeds the response scale of individual animals so as to synchronize demographic events such as births, deaths, and dispersal across space. Identifying the scale of spatial synchrony in density dynamics hints at which factors regulate populations and, thus, the characteristic scale of such regulating factors (Addicot et al. 1987, de Roos et al. 1991). In addition, estimating the strength of the synchrony is of interest because it may be a critical determinant of the stability and persistence of populations at various spatial scales (Hanski and Woiwod 1993).

有色环境噪音对空间异质种群动态同步性的影响

Nearby populations often experience shared environmental fluctuations and have stronger population synchrony than distant populations. However, different species often show different levels of synchrony across the same areas and environments, possibly because some traits influence their susceptibility to environmental stochasticity. In this paper, we compiled a pan‐European collection of long‐term annual abundance data on birds and butterflies from eight countries to identify how species' life history traits can influence the effects of environmental synchrony. We show that in birds and butterflies, the impact of environmental synchrony on population synchrony depended on key life history traits. For birds, which had stronger evidence for synchronizing effects of temperature compared to precipitation, the environmental effects on population synchrony depended on generation time, dietary diversity, and migratory tactic. The positive effects of environmental synchrony were stronger in bird species with short generation times (i.e., faster lived), higher dietary diversity, resident species, and short‐distance migrants. In butterflies, which had stronger evidence for synchronizing effects of precipitation compared to temperature, we found that environmental effects on population synchrony depended on voltinism, with stronger effects in multivoltine (i.e., faster lived) species. Thus, life history can interact with environmental synchrony in shaping patterns of spatial population synchrony, with implications for predicting impacts of environmental change on species abundances over larger spatial scales. Further understanding of drivers of spatial population synchrony based on long‐term abundance data is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.

The effects of dispersal on spatial synchrony and population variability have been well documented in theoretical research, and a growing number of empirical tests have been performed. Yet a synthesis is still lacking. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of relevant experiments and examined how dispersal affected spatial synchrony and temporal population variability across scales. Our analyses showed that dispersal generally promoted spatial synchrony, and such effects increased with dispersal rate and decreased with environmental correlation among patches. The synchronizing effect of dispersal, however, was detected only when spatial synchrony was measured using the correlation-based index, not when the covariance-based index was used. In contrast to theoretical predictions, the effect of dispersal on local population variability was generally nonsignificant, except when environmental correlation among patches was negative and/or the experimental period was long. At the regional scale, while low dispersal stabilized metapopulation dynamics, high dispersal led to destabilization. Overall, the sign and strength of dispersal effects on spatial synchrony and population variability were modulated by taxa, environmental heterogeneity, type of perturbations, patch number, and experimental length. Our synthesis demonstrates that dispersal can affect the dynamics of spatially distributed populations, but its effects are context dependent on abiotic and biotic factors.

Ecological and spatial drivers of population synchrony in bird assemblages

Dispersal is a key life-history trait for most species and is essential to ensure connectivity and gene flow between populations and facilitate population viability in variable environments. Despite the increasing importance of range shifts due to global change, dispersal has proved difficult to quantify, limiting empirical understanding of this phenotypic trait and wider synthesis. Here, we introduce a statistical framework to estimate standardised dispersal kernels from biased data. Based on this, we compare empirical dispersal kernels for European breeding birds considering age (average dispersal; natal, before first breeding; and breeding dispersal, between subsequent breeding attempts) and sex (females and males) and test whether different dispersal properties are phylogenetically conserved. We standardised and analysed data from an extensive volunteer-based bird ring-recoveries database in Europe (EURING) by accounting for biases related to different censoring thresholds in reporting between countries and to migratory movements. Then, we fitted four widely used probability density functions in a Bayesian framework to compare and provide the best statistical descriptions of the different age and sex-specific dispersal kernels for each bird species. The dispersal movements of the 234 European bird species analysed were statistically best explained by heavy-tailed kernels, meaning that while most individuals disperse over short distances, long-distance dispersal is a prevalent phenomenon in almost all bird species. The phylogenetic signal in both median and long dispersal distances estimated from the best-fitted kernel was low (Pagel's λ < 0.25), while it reached high values (Pagel's λ >0.7) when comparing dispersal distance estimates for fat-tailed dispersal kernels. As expected in birds, natal dispersal was on average 5km greater than breeding dispersal, but sex-biased dispersal was not detected. Our robust analytical framework allows sound use of widely available mark-recapture data in standardised dispersal estimates. We found strong evidence that long-distance dispersal is common among European breeding bird species and across life stages. The dispersal estimates offer a first guide to selecting appropriate dispersal kernels in range expansion studies and provide new avenues to improve our understanding of the mechanisms and rules underlying dispersal events.

Understanding the processes that stabilize species populations is a fundamental question in ecology and central to conservation biology. In metapopulations, dispersal can act as a ‘double edged' sword for species stability by simultaneously decreasing local population variability (thereby decreasing local extinction risk) while increasing spatial synchrony (thereby increasing landscape‐level extinction risk). These dynamics may operate at different timescales, complicating efforts to assess their relative importance for long‐term stability. Here, we use a simple metapopulation model to understand how dispersal affects population variability and spatial synchrony across timescales. Our model shows that dispersal has contrasting effects at short versus long timescales on the variability and synchrony of populations. For populations that exhibit slow recovery when perturbed (i.e. under‐compensatory growth), dispersal decreases local population variability while increasing spatial synchrony at long timescales. In contrast, at short timescales dispersal increases local population variability while decreasing spatial synchrony. For populations that recover via damped oscillation when perturbed (i.e. over‐compensatory growth), the effects of dispersal are all opposite to those for populations with under‐compensatory growth, at both short and long timescales. The timescale‐dependent effect of dispersal has important implications for empirical studies. Specifically, studies conducted over short periods may only observe population variability increasing and spatial synchrony decreasing with dispersal, whereas the opposite patterns may predominate over longer periods. Our results provide novel insights on the dynamics underlying the role of dispersal and highlight the importance of time series length in empirical studies of metapopulations.

One of the most important issues in spatial ecology is to understand how spatial synchrony and dispersal-induced stability interact. In the existing studies it is shown that dispersion among identical patches results in spatial synchrony; on the other hand, the combination of spatial heterogeneity and dispersion is necessary for dispersal-induced stability (or temporal stability). Population synchrony and temporal stability are thus often thought of as conflicting outcomes of dispersion. In contrast to the general belief, in this present study we show that mean-field dispersion is conducive to both spatial synchrony and dispersal-induced stability even in identical patches. This simultaneous occurrence of rather conflicting phenomena is governed by the suppression of oscillation states, namely amplitude death (AD) and oscillation death (OD). These states emerge through spatial synchrony of the oscillating patches in the strong-coupling strength. We present an interpretation of the mean-field diffusive coupling in the context of ecology and identify that, with increasing mean-field density, an open ecosystem transforms into a closed ecosystem. We report on the occurrence of OD in an ecological model and explain its significance. Using a detailed bifurcation analysis we show that, depending on the mortality rate and carrying capacity, the system shows either AD or both AD and OD. We also show that the results remain qualitatively the same for a network of oscillators. We identify a new transition scenario between the same type of oscillation suppression states whose geneses differ. In the parameter-mismatched case, we further report on the direct transition from OD to AD through a transcritical bifurcation. We believe that this study will lead to a proper interpretation of AD and OD in ecology, which may be important for the conservation and management of several communities in ecosystems.

Spatial (a)synchrony in population fluctuations of five plant species in fragmented habitats