Abstract
As performed conventionally, nuclear probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) may be criticized as utilizing inscrutable and unjustifiably 'precise' quantitative informed judgment or extrapolation from that judgment. To meet this criticism, we propose and argue for controlling principles that govern the formulation of probability densities given only the informed input that would be required for a simple bounding analysis. These principles are founded upon information theoretic ideas of maximum uncertainty and cover both cases in which there exists a stochastic model of the phenomenon of interest and cases in which there is no such model. In part, the principles are conventional and we justify such an approach by appeal to certain analogies in accounting practice and judicial decision-making. Examples are given. We believe that, by appropriate employment of these principles, substantial progress towards PRA scrutability and transparency would be achieved. 25 refs.
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