Controlling Default Contagion Through Small-World Networks Analysis

Abstract

In our increasingly connected business environment, an enterprise’s financial downturn can spread to its economic associates, a phenomenon defined as default contagion. In academic research, the default contagion is usually measured by the default dependence degree. This paper utilizes the Copula metric method to capture the default dependence degree, and studies the default dependence degree of listed companies in China through quantitative analysis. Related properties of default dependence of the listed companies are then explored through a simulation method. Results find that the default dependence degrees of listed companies in China present the remarkable characteristics of a small-world network, which are a high cluster and a short path. This indicates that once the core company defaults, the adverse effect will quickly spread to other companies through the network diffusion effect of the financial market. Hence, this study can provide some theoretical basis for the design of a mechanism to prevent and control large-scale default events.