Contrasting relationship between the Kuroshio Extension and the East Asian summer monsoon before and after the late 1980s

Abstract

Based on our previous study (Yu et al., Clim Dyn 49:1139–1156, 2017), this paper further investigates the interdecadal change in the relationship between the Kuroshio Extension (KE; 27°–37°N, 140°–158°E) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the late 1980s. The summer KE sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) show a significant positive relationship with the EASM over the period 1968–1987 (P1), but a significant negative connection with the EASM between 1991 and 2010 (P2). This interdecadal change in the KE–EASM relationship can be interpreted by considering the difference in the relationships of summer KE SSTAs with the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) and western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) during the two periods. During P1, summertime KE SST warming is significantly related to the strengthened EASWJ and WNPSH, but it has close relationships with the weakened and northward-moving EASWJ and WNPSH during P2. These anomalous EASWJ and WNPSH associated with the summertime KE SST warming in P1 (P2) then favors increased (reduced) rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley that corresponds to a strong (weak) EASM, thereby leading to the significant positive (negative) KE–EASM relationship during this period. This change in the relationships of summer KE SSTAs with the EASWJ and WNPSH may be attributed to the increased KE SST variability associated with an enhanced Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in summer during P2, which is most probably induced by the stronger North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like atmospheric forcing, especially its southern pole (SP), in the preceding spring during this period. The spring NPO-like SP forces the KE SSTAs and PDO more directly during the following summer and can thus have been a better precursor for the following EASM than the full NPO-like dipole after the late 1980s.