Continued global warming from aviation even under high-ambition mitigation scenarios

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper provides an overview of new emission mitigation scenarios that lead to stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, presented in this Special Issue. All of these scenarios use as their baselines the new IPCC scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), which quantify a wide range of future worlds. This means the new mitigation and stabilization scenarios are based on a range of future development paths that have fundamental implications for future emissions reduction strategies. Here, we refer to these new scenarios as “Post-SRES” mitigation scenarios. In addition to providing an overview of these new scenarios, this paper also assesses the implications that emerge from a range of alternative development baselines for technology and policy measures for reducing future emissions and stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nine modeling teams have participated in this joint effort to quantify a wide range of mitigation and stabilization scenarios. The nine modeling approaches involve different methodologies, data, regional aggregations and other salient characteristics. This pluralism of approaches and alternative baselines serves to cover some of the uncertainties embedded across a range of different mitigation and stabilization strategies. At the same time, several common trends and characteristics can be observed across the set of Post-SRES scenarios. First, the different baseline “worlds” described in the SRES scenarios require different technology/policy measures to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the same level. Second, no one single measure will be sufficient for the timely development, adoption and diffusion of mitigation options to achieve stabilization. Third, the level of technology/policy measures in the beginning of the 21st century that would be needed to achieve stabilization would be significantly affected by the choice of development path over next one hundred years. And finally, several “robust policy options” across the different worlds are identified for achieving stabilizations.

Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reduction in a power system predominantly based on lignite

We propose and try to find a model renewable energy integration for lower emission and achieving regional energy independence. The research uses three stages. First, building an energy system model, to analyze the impact of implementing energy efficiency programs. The second stage is developing an integrated model from the energy demand and supply. Finally, arranging a mitigation scenarios to develop a low-carbon energy and achieving energy independence. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software was utilized to simulate two scenarios are used to analyze energy demand and supply, namely Baseline scenarios and Mitigation scenarios. Mitigation Scenario is a combination of Energy Efficiency (EE) scenario, Fuel Substitution (FS), mode change scenario (MC), and efficient vehicle (EV) scenario and is used to analyze their impact on energy demand and GHG emissions. The results showed that mitigation scenarios can reduce energy demand by 22.86% when compared to the baseline scenario. In 2050, energy demand based on the mitigation scenario is 147.15 x 103 TJ, higher than based on the baseline scenario, which energy demand is 113.52 x 103 TJ. The cumulative of GHG emission reaches 1,369.37 x 103 Tons of CO2 Equivalent, based on the baseline scenario, can be reduced 13.54% by mitigation scenario. These results are robust. Overall, this research finding provides some possible steps to develop Yogyakarta energy independence and other regions.

Significant energy transition would be needed in China under the carbon neutrality target. Since it would have important impacts on water resource through increased usage, understanding the water demand under specific climate change targets could enable better policy-making for the energy transition. In order to quantitatively analyze the impacts, this study proposed a methodology that combines CO2 emissions, energy transition, and water demand. An energy-water integrated assessment model was built, to simulate the future energy and CO2 emissions pathways up to 2050 in China. The water demand of energy systems under both policy scenario (PS) and two mitigation scenarios (2C and 1.5C) are calculated. The key influencing factors of water demand are analysed in two low-water-demand mitigation scenarios (2C-LW and 1.5C-LW). The results showed that China’s future energy system and CO2 emissions pathways change significantly under mitigation scenarios. The timing of the CO2 emissions peak advances from around 2030 under the PS scenario to between 2020 and 2025 in the mitigation scenarios. Near-zero emissions are achieved by 2050 under the 1.5C scenario. However, with no further water-saving measures, water consumption in energy sector would continue to increase under both the policy scenario and mitigation scenarios. This pressure is compounded by certain mitigation technologies, such as inland nuclear power, biomass energy, and CCS technologies. As such, the potential for water conservation in energy system under climate mitigation targets is studied. The results showed that water-saving measures can significantly reduce long-term water demand in the energy system.

Nepal is a developing country with huge potential of investment in agriculture, cement and hydropower sector. Industrial development in Nepal is at a pre-mature state and requires lot of technical and financial investment. Cement industry is one of the potential industries to grow in the future, mainly because of the reserved limestone and increasing developmental activities. This study analyzed the energy and environmental implications of implementing best available technologies in cement industries of Nepal by using Long-rand Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) framework. Production capacity of cement in 2014 is estimated to be 2.46 million MT which is expected reach 25.41 million MT by 2030. The final energy demand for the base year, 2014 is 5.4 PJ. It would increase to 13.69 PJ, 16.91 PJ and 25.67 PJ in 2030, under normal (BAU), medium growth (MG) and high growth (HG) scenarios respectively. Compared to the BAU scenario, the cumulative energy demand would increase by 21.46% for MG scenario and 78.00% for HG scenario during 2014 to 2030. The CO2 emission for the base year 2014 is estimated to be 365.40 thousand MT. It would increase to 1,540.70 thousand MT, 2,292.90 thousand MT and 4105.60 thousand MT in 2030, under BAU, MG and HG, respectively. Compared to the BAU scenario the cumulative CO2 emission would grow as high as 78.06% under HG scenario. This indicates the need for introducing the energy efficient and low carbon technologies to address the issues related to energy supply security and environmental degradation. This study also analyzed the three policy intervention scenarios consisting of introduction of efficient technology (EFF) scenario, CO2 emission mitigation (MIT) scenario and waste heat recovery for power generation (WHRPG) scenario. Under EFF scenario, the cumulative energy consumption would decrease by 11.67% during 2014 to 2030 as compared to the BAU scenario. Likewise, CO2 emission would decrease by 33.64% under MIT scenario as compared to the BAU. Under WHRPG scenario, there would be cumulative electricity generation of 1,446.31 GWh worth NRs. 9.11 billion as compared to the BAU scenario during the study period. This study also indicates the need of formulating appropriate energy efficiency and climate change related policies of the country.

Journal of Flood Risk ManagementVolume 14, Issue 4 e12759 LETTER TO THE EDITOROpen Access Corrigendum: Evaluation of the implications of ice-jam flood mitigation measures First published: 20 September 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12759AboutSectionsPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Corrigendum for the article: Das, A. and Lindenschmidt, K.-E. (2021) Evaluation of the implications of ice-jam flood mitigation measures. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2021: e12697. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12697 Since its publication, we have replaced our exceedance probabilities P in Equation (3) with a formulation provided by Gerard and Karpuk (1979). While distributions and associated parameters to developed exceedance probabilities are well developed in open-water hydrology, there is no solid or well-developed approach for ice-affected river stages. Therefore, scientists and engineers rely on graphical or nonparametric statistical techniques, such as Weibull, Hazen, median or the formula proposed by Gerard and Karpuk (1979) to calculate exceedance probabilities. Hence, for this study, we decided to use the latter formula (Gerard & Karpuk, 1979): where m is the rank of each ice-jam water level elevation, N is the total number of simulations and X is a value exceeding x (White & Beltaos, 2008). We found that the overall conclusions do not change but that only the total annual expected damages are scaled up by a factor of approximately 3, to $11.3 million for the town of Fort McMurray, a value which is in line with a result of $10.4 million by IBI and Golder Associates Ltd. (2014). Updated Figures 7 and 8 are provided below. FIGURE 7Open in figure viewerPowerPoint Flood risk maps for different mitigation scenarios along the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray FIGURE 8Open in figure viewerPowerPoint The expected annual damages from the ensemble of flood risk maps for different mitigation scenarios at Fort McMurray The paragraph immediately before Section 4 should read: The EAD of different mitigation scenarios are demonstrated in Figure 8. The results show that artificial breakup and 250 m a.s.l dike crest elevation can reduce the most ice-jam flood risk among all the mitigation scenarios. While the base scenario has the maximum EAD, about $11.2 million, artificial breakup has an EAD of about $1.7 million. The 250 m a.s.l dike crest elevation also has a great potential to reduce the flood risk, which could reduce the EAD to $0.95 million. Although the sediment dredging scenarios could reduce the EAD to a certain level, they may be less effective compared to the other two mitigation measures, 250 m a.s.l. crest-elevation dike and artificial breakup. Moreover, the optimum result was found to be for 3 m dredging in which the EAD was reduced to about $5.8 million. Further studies, by changing the dredging location, can be applied to identify the potential of sediment dredging to reduce flood risk. The tenth line in Section 4 “Discussion and concluding remarks” should read: “… the results show that artificial breakup has the second highest potential to reduce the EAD, as the number of buildings exposed to flood risk significantly reduce in this scenario.” Open Research DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study. REFERENCES Gerard, R., & Karpuk, E. W. (1979). Probability analysis of historical flood data. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 105(9), 1153– 1165. CrossrefGoogle Scholar IBI and Golder Associates Ltd. (2014). Report feasibility study—Athabasca River Basins. Prepared for Government of Alberta—Flood recovery Task Force. Retrieved from https://open.alberta.ca/publications/35751. Google Scholar White, K., & Beltaos, S. (2008). Chapter 9: Development of ice-affected stage frequency curves. In River ice break-up. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, Co. Google Scholar Volume14, Issue4December 2021e12759 FiguresReferencesRelatedInformation

A WRF-CAMx-PSAT model was applied to analyze the impact of the electric power industry on urban agglomerations along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. A high-resolution emission inventory based on a bottom-up approach was developed for air quality simulation. A typical month with heavy air pollution in this region (i.e., January) was chosen for simulation, and two mitigation scenarios were set for assessing lower capacity power units' impact on regional air quality. One scenario was for shutting down the lower capacity power units, and the other was for replacing lower capacity power units with higher capacity power units. Results showed that lower capacity power units contributed bigger pollutant concentrations to the regional contribution of the electric power industry. The concentration contributions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 in the two mitigation scenarios were reduced by 36.2%-39.8%、30.5%-33.5%, and 25.9%-30.7%, respectively, than those under the current situation. Meanwhile, the decreases in pollutant concentration contribution for different regions were very similar for the two mitigation scenarios. In addition, lower capacity power units in four regions (i.e., northwest of Hubei province, west of Hunan province, Xiang-Jing-Yi economic belt region, and Hefei-centered urban agglomerations) contributed obviously to the regional pollutant concentration contributions of the electric power industry. Regional pollutant concentration contributions in the two mitigation scenarios were reduced by 40%-70%. Therefore, lower capacity power units make a bigger impact on the air quality of urban agglomerations along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and should be paid special attention to achieve better regional air quality.

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.

Mitigation of Greenhouse gases deals with measures to reduce the vulnerability of a certain sector to climate change through minimizing net emissions. In this paper, mitigation scenarios aimed at reducing Jordan methane emissions from sewage treatment plants and sanitary landfill sites were proposed and investigated. In the case of sewage treatment plants, As-Samra plant (the largest in Jordan) was selected for this mitigation study. Two scenarios (I and II) were proposed, the first was to expand the plant by the year 2005 using waste stabilization ponds the current treatment technology, and the second scenario involved switching the treatment technology to activated sludge type when the expansion starts in the year 2005. For sanitary landfills, the proposed mitigation scenario was the construction of two biogas plants, each with a processing capacity of 1,000 tons of solid waste per day at Rusaifeh and Akaider—the two largest landfills in Jordan at the beginning of the year 2005. For As-Samra plant, the cumulative reduction in methane emissions by the year 2030 was calculated to be 49 and 146 Gg under mitigation scenarios I and II, respectively. On the other hand, the biogas plant scenario reduces the methane emissions at each landfill by 28.1 Gg annually. The total emission reduction from both landfills in the life span (25 years) of the biogas plants will be about 1,406 Gg CH4. In addition, this scenario generates electricity at a cost of 4.6 cents per kWh, which is less than the Jordan electric long-run marginal cost of generation at 5.5 cents/kWh. Moreover, annual savings of US$4.65 million will be achieved by the replacement of fuel oil with the generated biogas. The mitigation scenarios presented in this paper include measures that positively contribute to the national development of Jordan in addition to considerable reduction in methane emission.. This forms a win–win situation that favors the adoption of investigated mitigation scenarios by the decision-makers of the waste sector in Jordan.

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

Mitigation of carbon dioxide from Indonesia's energy system

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that the waste sector is a potential emitter of methane gas (CH4), which has a greenhouse effect up to 28 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2). The management of municipal solid waste (MSW) generates greenhouse gases (GHG) directly through emissions from the process itself as well as indirectly through transportation and energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the GHG emissions contributed by the waste sector in the Recife metropolitan region (RMR) and to define mitigation scenarios to comply with the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a result of the Paris Agreement. To achieve this, an exploratory study was carried out, including a literature review, collection of data, estimation of emissions using the IPCC model (2006), and comparison between the values assumed by the country in 2015 and those estimated in the adopted mitigation scenarios. The RMR is composed of 15 municipalities, has an area of 3,216,262 km2 and a population of 4,054,866 inhabitants (2018), generating approximality 1.4 million t-year of MSW. It was estimated that, in the period from 2006 to 2018, 25.4 million tCO2e were emitted. The comparative analysis between the absolute values defined in the Brazilian NDC and the results from the mitigation scenarios showed that approximately 36 million tCO2e could be avoided through the disposal of MSW in the RMR, equivalent to a 52% reduction in emissions estimated for 2030, a percentage greater than the 47% reduction assumed in the Paris Agreement.

Yield-scaled nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen-fertilized croplands in China: A meta-analysis of contrasting mitigation scenarios

Indian methane and nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation flexibility