Contact network analysis of COVID-19 Delta variant outbreak in urban China —based on 2,050 confirmed cases in Xi’an, China

Abstract

BackgroundThe purpose of this paper is to study how the Delta variant spread in a China city, and to what extent the non-pharmaceutical prevention measures of local government be effective by reviewing the contact network of COVID-19 cases in Xi’an, China.MethodsWe organize the case reports of the Shaanxi Health Commission into a database by text coding and convert them into a network matrix. Then we construct a dynamic contact network for the corresponding analysis and calculate network indicators. we analyze the cases’ dynamic contact network structure and intervals between diagnosis time and isolation time by using data visualization, network analysis method, and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression.ResultsThe contact network for this outbreak in Xi’an is very sparse, with a density of less than 0.0001. The contact network is a scale-free network. The average degree centrality is 0.741 and the average PageRank score is 0.0005. The network generated from a single source of infection contains 1371 components. We construct three variables of intervals and analyze the trend of intervals during the outbreak. The mean interval (interval 1) between case diagnosis time and isolation time is − 3.9 days. The mean of the interval (interval 2) between the infector’s diagnosis time and the infectee’s diagnosis time is 4.2 days. The mean of the interval (interval 3) between infector isolation time and infectee isolation time is 2.9 days. Among the three intervals, only interval 1 has a significant positive correlation with degree centrality.ConclusionsBy integrating COVID-19 case reports of a Chinese city, we construct a contact network to analyze the dispersion of the outbreak. The network is a scale-free network with multiple hidden pathways that are not detected. The intervals of patients in this outbreak decreased compared to the beginning of the outbreak in 2020. City lockdown has a significant effect on the intervals that can affect patients’ network centrality. Our study highlights the value of case report text. By linking different reports, we can quickly analyze the spread of the epidemic in an urban area.