Conservation challenges and land dynamics in a threatened coastal forest biodiversity hotspot, Tanzania: insights from 1995‐2022

<p>Human activities and climate affect the hydrology of a basin. The effect of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change and climate change on streamflow are basin specific. In this study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the effects of LULC and climate change on streamflow in the Netravathi basin, Karnataka, India. The SWAT model, which reasonably simulates the streamflow of a basin, is used for this study. The analysis was done from the year 1990 to 2018. The watershed is delineated by using ALOS PALSAR DEM. Rainfall and temperature obtained from IMD are used as the climate variables. LULC maps were prepared using Landsat images of 1990 and 2018 in order to assess the LULC changes in the basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of built-up (3.82%–6.51%), water bodies (0.76%–0.99%), and agriculture (11.96%–17.89%) increased, whereas that of forest (66.56%–51.7%), fallow (3.82%–6.13%), and barren land (13.07%–16.76%) decreased from 1990 to 2018. The streamflow increased steadily (5.02%) with changes in LULC from 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanisation and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, in the catchment during this period. Thus, hydrological modelling integrating climate change and LULC can be used as an effective tool in estimating streamflow of the basin.</p>

Unraveling land use land cover change, their driving factors, and implication on carbon storage through an integrated modelling approach

Impacts of Land use Land cover dynamics on Ecosystem services in maze national park and its environs, southwestern Ethiopia

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes in response to natural factors and human activities constitute a pressing issue for the conservation of Protected Areas in urban–rural landscapes. The present study investigated LULC changes in the Jajrud Protected Area (JPA) and the Kavdeh Wildlife Refuge (KWR) in the Tehran province, Iran, between 1989 and 2019. To inform ecological conservation measures for the JPA and KWR, LULC changes were identified and monitored using Landsat imagery from between 1989 and 2019. In addition, the landscape ecological risk (ER) was evaluated by conducting a landscape pattern index analysis. Then, the importance of different indicators affected by ER in these two PAs was assessed using the Delphi method, and expert opinions were solicited through a questionnaire. As for LULC changes in the JPA, high-density pasture declined the most over 1989–2019, from 38.6% (29,241 ha) to 37.7% (28,540 ha). In contrast, built-up areas increased the most, from 10.4% (7895 ha) in 1989 to 11.9% (9048 ha) in 2019. Water bodies also increased, from 0.88% (676 ha) in 1989 to 0.94% (715 ha) in 2019. In the KWR, cropland and gardens increased the most, from 2.14% (1647 ha) in 1989 to 3.4% (2606 ha) in 2019. Built-up areas also increased, from 0.05% (45 ha) in 1989 to 0.09% (75 ha) in 2019. Water bodies increased from 0.69% (538 ha) in 1989 to 0.71% (552 ha) in 2019. Finally, high-density pasture decreased the most, from 29.4% (22,603 ha) in 1989 to 28.5% (21,955 ha) in 2019. At the same time, the high and very high ER classes increased, more so in the JPA compared to the KWR. Finally, considering both LULC and ER changes, the Delphi method demonstrated that the greatest impacts occurred in the JPA. Various illegal economic and physical activities have created LULC changes and caused extensive destruction of ecosystems, posing a high ER in the study areas. The intensity of ER differs between the two PAs because of the varying distance from the metropolis, varying degrees of human activities, LULC changes, along with differences in legal restrictions of use. Aligned with the management plans of these areas, our research shows that it is necessary to develop land only within the designated zones to minimize the amount of ER. Various models of LULC changes have been presented, and a comparison of these models relating to the methodology and model effectiveness can help increase their accuracy and power of interpretation.


 
 
 Floods are one of the most common natural disasters worldwide. Apart from rainfall, Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes too are a main contributory factor for floods. This study attempted to understand the link between floods and LULC changes in Kalu river basin, which is the second largest river basin and an area that experiences recurrent floods in Sri Lanka. We studied peak water levels, number of flood events, changes in land use types and impacts in rapidly urbanizing two districts, Rathnapura (upper basin) and Kalutara (lower basin) during 2001-2020. The satellite images (LANDSAT) were obtained for 2001, 2009, 2015 and 2020 and land use classification was done using ArcGIS and Remote Sensing Tools. Main land use types and their transformations were investigated and ground-truthing was carried out. Accordingly, the main types of land uses identified were Natural Vegetation and forests (NV), Settlements (ST- housing and industrial lands), Cultivated Lands (CL), Water Bodies (WB) and Bare Lands (BL). The results indicated that the most drastic change was found in the natural areas (NV) and they have diminished while the lands with anthropogenic impacts (ST, CL and BL) have increased across years. The NV had occupied the highest land area in 2001 (42.4%) and has reduced by 14.2% by 2020. The ST and CL have increased by 8.6 % and 5.2% respectively. The monthly rainfall of Rathnapura and Kalutara (Source: Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka) has increased with time, which is a main reason for the increasing peak water levels of these areas (Source: Department of Irrigation, Sri Lanka). However, a significant correlation also exists between the change of the settlement area with the peak river water levels in the lower basin (p=0.03, R2=99%; regression analysis). Rathnapura has experienced 3 major floods (floods above the high water alert level) from 2001-2020, while 16 major floods have occurred in Kalutara. During the major flood in 2017, the number of child deaths in Rathnapura was 14 while in Kalutara it was 24. Accordingly, the LULC changes of the whole basin along with rainfall seem to influence on the severity of floods in Kalutara more, as it is located in the lowest elevation level. When natural lands are transformed to anthropogenic- impacted areas with disturbances to the water cycle, increased impervious surfaces, reduced water storage capacities and loss of natural drainage, the flood risk tends to increase. Proactive approaches including proper land use planning and rainwater storage are urgently needed as the climate change too would trigger more floods. Thus, the flood mitigatory actions, especially, in the lower river basin should be a priority to ensure resilience and sustainability.
 Keywords: Kalu river basin, Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes, Floods
 
 

Climate change and land use land cover (LULC) changes are recognised as two of the most significant causes of environmental change. Climate change and LULC changes are related to one another. Land use change may drive climate change, and a changing climate may result in land cover changes. Climate change and LULC changes are believed to influence soil erosion. This chapter analyses the impacts of climate and LULC changes on soil erosion. The causes and effects of climate change on precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and radiative forcing are discussed. The chapter includes the impacts of climate change on soil characteristics, vegetation cover, runoff, floods, and droughts and extends the impacts of these changes on water and wind erosion. The chapter explores the human alterations of LULC changes in terms of changes in the forest cover, alterations in agricultural lands, increase in urban areas, and decrease in wetland areas. The influence of the LULC changes on soil erosion and sediment production processes is discussed. Also, the combined impact of climate and LULC changes on soil erosion is explored, and mitigation strategies like sustainable land management practices and appropriate policy incentives to conserve soil are discussed.

In the last few decades, rapid urbanisation has led to Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change, which has had a significant impact on the environment, ecosystem and its key goods and services around the globe. Ecosystem Service (ES) provides a wide range of benefits and advantages to communities and local economies. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have led to rapid alterations in composition, structure, and ecosystem functions, thereby reducing their capacity to provide essential services. Economic evaluation of ecosystem services is very crucial. Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) are not given as much consideration in urban planning and policymaking, despite the fact that it is well known in the literature that urban ecosystems significantly contribute to human well-being in cities. Using ArcGIS 10.8.1, the LULC changes were computed for Tangail municipality between 2005 and 2023, based on LULC data computed from the Landsat imagery. The Benefits Transfer Approach (BTM) is used to calculate the changes in ESV associated with LULC changes. The research aims to analyse LULC change and assess its impact on ESV at the municipal level, providing a better understanding of how spatial patterns affect ESV. The results show a continuous reduction in ESV during the study periods. Between 2005 and 2023, due to the increase in built-up area, the area increased by about 46.66%. The ESV in Tangail Municipality has decreased from 3.02 million USD to 1.63 million USD during the same period. This study provides valuable insights that can aid in managing land resources and developing plans to mitigate the decline in ESV, ensuring sustainability and long-term ecosystem conservation at the municipal level.

This paper discusses results of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project conducted in 2008 to quantify and assess land use land cover (LULC) change from 1974 to 2008. Led by NASA Stennis Space Center, this project involved multiple Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) partners, including the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (NEP), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), and the NOAA Coastal Services Center. The Mobile Bay region provides great economic and ecologie benefits to the Nation, including important coastal habitat for a broad diversity of fisheries and wildlife. The Mobile Bay region has experienced considerable LULC change since the latter half of the 20th century. Accompanying this change has been urban expansion and a reduction of rural land uses. Much of this LULC change (largely urbanization) has reportedly occurred since the landfall of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. Regional urbanization threatens the estuary's water quality and aquatic-habitat dependent biota, including commercial fisheries and avian wildlife. Coastal conservation and urban land use planners require additional information on historical LULC change to support coastal habitat restoration and resiliency management efforts. This project quantified and assessed LULC change across the 34-year time frame and at decadal and mid-decadal scales. Nine Landsat images were employed to compute LULC products because of their availability and suitability for the application. The project also used Landsat-based national LULC products, including coastal LULC products from NOAA's Coastal Change & Analysis Program (C-CAP), available at 5-year intervals since 1995. Our study was initiated in part because C-CAP LULC products were not available to assess the region's urbanization prior to 1995 and subsequent to post-Hurricane Katrina in 2006. The study area included the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties that encompass Mobile Bay. Each date of Landsat data was classified using an end-user defined modified Anderson level 1 classification scheme. LULC classifications were refined using a decision rule approach in conjunction with available C-CAP products. Individual dates of LULC classifications were validated by image interpretation of stratified random locations on raw Landsat color composite imagery in combination with higher resolution remote sensing and in situ reference data. Overall classification accuracies for five separate single-date products ranged from 83% to 89%. The results of the LULC change analysis indicate that during the 34-year study period, urban areas increased from 96,688 to 150,227 acres, representing a 55.37% increase, or 1.63% per annum. Most of the identified urban expansion regarded the conversion of rural forest and agriculture to urban cover types. Final LULC mapping and metadata products were produced for the entire study area as well as for multiple watersheds of concern within the study area. The final project products, including LULC trend information, were incorporated into the Mobile Bay NEP State of the Bay report. Products and metadata were also transferred to NOAA NCDDC to allow free online accessibility and use by GOMA partners and by the public.

Abstract. Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km2) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.

Satellite remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) have revolutionalized the mapping, quantifying, and assessing the land surface processes, particularly analyzing the past and future land use-land cover (LULC) change patterns. Worldwide river basins have observed enormous changes in the land system dynamics as a result of anthropogenic factors such as population, urbanization, development, and agriculture. As is the scenario of various other river basins, the Brahmaputra basin, which falls in China, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh, is also witnessing the same environmental issues. The present study has been conducted on the Brahmaputra Valley in Assam, India (a sub-basin of the larger Brahmaputra basin) and assessed its LULC changes using a maximum likelihood classification algorithm. The study also simulated the changing LULC pattern for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 using the GIS-based cellular automata Markov model (CA-Markov) to understand the implications of the ongoing trends in the LULC change for future land system dynamics. The current rate of change of the LULC in the region was assessed using the 48years of earth observation satellite data from 1973 to 2021. It was observed that from 1973 to 2021, the area under vegetation cover and water body decreased by 19.48 and 47.13%, respectively. In contrast, cultivated land, barren land, and built-up area increased by 7.60, 20.28, and 384.99%, respectively. It was found that the area covered by vegetation and water body has largely been transitioned to cultivated land and built-up classes. The research predicted that, by the end of 2050, the area covered by vegetation, cultivated land, and water would remain at 39.75, 32.31, and 4.91%, respectively, while the area covered by built-up areas will increase by up to 18.09%. Using the kappa index (ki) as an accuracy indicator of the simulated future LULCs, the predicted LULC of 2021 was validated against the observed LULC of 2021, and the very high ki observed validated the generated simulation LULC products. The research concludes that significant LULC changes are taking place in the study area with a decrease in vegetation cover and water body and an increase of area under built-up. Such trends will continue in the future and shall have disastrous environmental consequences unless necessary land resource management strategies are not implemented. The main factors responsible for the changing dynamics of LULC in the study area are urbanization, population growth, climate change, river bank erosion and sedimentation, and intensive agriculture. This study is aimed at providing the policy and decision-makers of the region with the necessary what-if scenarios for better decision-making. It shall also be useful in other countries of the Brahmaputra basin for transboundary integrated river basin management of the whole region.

Upper-Brantas watershed in East Java, Indonesia, is a tropical watershed experiencing rapid landscape change, a phenomenon typical to developing countries. This study demonstrates the impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes on surface runoff in a tropical, urbanized, and data scarce watershed. The LULC changes were quantified between 1995 and 2015 and their impact on the hydrological processes was analyzed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. During the study period, the watershed experienced an increase in settlement and dryland agriculture, and a decrease in the forest, rice field, and sugarcane plantation. The SWAT model results for the calibration (2003–2008) and validation (2009–2013) periods matched observed values [R2 > 0.91 and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) >0.91]. In the long-term, the model predicted changes in runoff (+8%), water yield (+0.28%), groundwater (−1.8%), and evapotranspiration (−1.15%) due to changes in LULC. LULC changes showed a linear relationship with runoff generation, and the most significant factors affecting surface runoff were changes in the forest, agriculture, and settlements. Increasing urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural intensification will increase runoff which in turn will enhance the flow of nutrients and sediments into the water bodies.

Land use land cover (LULC) change determination caused by development projects is always mandatory as land is the major source of local livelihoods and regional economy. Worldwide, very limited studies have been conducted to determine LULC changes caused by run-of-the-river projects, which are generally considered safe due to their design. Present study used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to examine the LULC changes caused by Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project (GBHP), which is a run-of-the-river project, built in 2002 on Indus River in Pakistan. The project diverts river water from Ghazi barrage, for a 6,600 GWh annual power production, through an open concrete power channel of 100 m width and 9 m depth. Field surveys were carried out to assess respondents’ opinions about LULC changes and their major causes. LULC determination was carried out from 1990–2020 through processing Landsat images in GEE, and Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique was used for supervised classification of the study area. 384 respondents were consulted during the field survey and their responses were collected using semi-structured self-administered proformas. Results showed that after functioning, GBHP caused major LULC changes in project downstream areas from 2002–2010, as there was a significant decrease in area under agriculture by 29.10% and 47%, during summer and winter seasons respectively. The trend was concurrent with a decrease in area under water and was also followed by a marked increase in area under vegetation and baresoil. However, from 2010–2020, agriculture area again increased by 75.61% and 84.53% in summer and winter seasons respectively, as compared to 2002–2010. Respondents during the field survey revealed that agriculture reduction from 2002–2010 was due to water scarcity caused by GBHP; also leading to vegetation and baresoil increase. Recovery of agriculture from 2010–2020 was attributed to groundwater development intervention, better seeds, and farmers’ capacity building.

Understanding the impacts of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and their drivers is crucial for sustainable management of natural resources. Thus, this rigorous study aimed to examine the trends, drivers, and consequences of land use land cover changes (LULC) in the Lake Ziway catchment, central rift valley of Ethiopia. The study followed a mixed- methodological systematic and justified approach that included remote sensing and GIS techniques, household surveys, focus group discussions, and in-depth interviews. The rigorous study shows that the conversion of forest land into agricultural and settlement lands is the major detected LULC change over the last 30 years in the catchment. Cultivated land has increased by 40.60% and settlement and plantation lands have increased by 61.54% and 60%, respectively. On the other hand, forest land decreased by 54.85% and grazing land have decreased by 15.85% respectively. Water bodies and wetlands have also decreased by 8.70% and 19.32% area coverage, respectively. Both the direct and indirect driving forces of the LULC changes were identified. The study also indicates that the participation of local communities in watershed management is low. The study further indicates that LULC changes observed in the Lake Ziway Catchment had statistically and practically significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. Over all, the rigorous study showed the changes in land use land cover and its drivers were common in Lake Ziway Catchment. Therefore, appropriate policies and strategies are required to address LULC change impacts and enhance sustainable utilization and management of the Lake Ziway catchment.

Four decadal urban land degradation in Pakistan a case study of capital city islamabad during 1979–2019

Spain has experienced massive recent socioeconomic changes that have had an influence on biodiversity and landscapes through land use-land cover (LULC) changes. Protected areas (PAs) seek to conserve biodiversity by establishing a legal and, sometimes, managerial regime that forbids or restricts LULC changes that are damaging to biodiversity. Here, we used CORINE Land Cover (CLC) data between 1987 and 2006 to assess differences in LULC changes and processes of change as metrics of effectiveness in four PA networks of clear legal and managerial characteristics in Spain: Nature reserves (NRs), Nature parks (NPs), Sites of Community Importance (SCIs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs). We also compared LULC changes and processes of change around each PA network applying a modified Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) research design with two increasingly distant control areas and two models of increased validity. The four PA networks were more environmentally sustainable than their surrounding areas although an effectiveness gradient was shown: NRs > SCIs > SPAs > NPs, suggesting little influence of PA management on LULC changes overall. Another gradient of environmental sustainability of control areas was evident: SCIs > SPAs > NPs > NRs. Proximal controls were more sustainable than distant ones. The main LULC increases inside PAs affected agro-forestry areas and transitional woodland-shrub, whereas artificial surfaces, permanently irrigated lands and burned areas prevailed in the proximal and distant controls. Three main LULC processes of change inside and around Spanish PAs outstood: forest succession, land development, and new irrigated areas, the two former chiefly affecting surrounding areas and posing serious threats to effective biodiversity conservation.