Conclusions, Implications, and Future Research

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Abstract This chapter begins with a brief summary of the book including its theory and main findings. It then turns to the book’s implications for researchers and policymakers. For researchers, these findings challenge the conventional wisdom that splinters exhibit common trajectories and universally emerge to spoil peace. They also challenge the overwhelming focus on external events and group characteristics to explain organizational splits, and they suggest focusing more on intragroup politics that provide greater analytic leverage. For policymakers, these findings urge a reconsideration of existing approaches to dividing armed groups as a means of defeating them. Policies to blindly fragment armed groups re uncertain at best and counterproductive at worst. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how this theoretical approach could help explain other outcomes as well, like parent-splinter cooperation and conflict, and splits among other entities like nonviolent resistance groups.

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