Comprehensive risk assessment of Pakistan railway network: A semi-quantitative risk matrix approach

Abstract

Pakistan Railway (PR) is vital to the country's transportation infrastructure, facilitating passenger and freight transportation. However, the growing number of accidents associated with PR has raised concerns about its overall safety. In addition, there have been limited research efforts to investigate PR accidents and their underlying causes The present study conducts a comprehensive risk assessment and safety management of PR using a semi-quantitative risk matrix approach. The study combines historical accident data and expert evaluations to assess the likelihood and consequences of different railway accident types and potential contributing factors. The descriptive statistics analysis has revealed varying degrees of severity for different types of railway accidents in Pakistan. For instance, accidents like passenger and goods train derailments and collisions at unmanned level crossings were identified as extreme and intolerable, whereas train fire accidents were categorized as high and undesirable. Moreover, accidents attributed to human error are classified as extreme and intolerable, while those caused by negligence of road users and track defects are classified as high and undesirable. The study utilized the risk matrix approach and identified critical risk areas that can help the decision-makers prioritize effective risk mitigation strategies. In light of the present study's findings, policy implications, such as investment in infrastructure to mitigate risks associated with aging or deteriorating tracks, bridges, and tunnels, and human resource development for railway personnel to improve their skills, decision-making abilities, and awareness of safety protocols, are recommended.