CompetitiveBike: Competitive Analysis and Popularity Prediction of Bike-Sharing Apps Using Multi-Source Data

Abstract

In recent years, bike-sharing systems have been widely deployed in many big cities, which provide an economical and healthy lifestyle. With the prevalence of bike-sharing systems, a lot of companies join the bike-sharing market, leading to increasingly fierce competition. To be competitive, bike-sharing companies and app developers need to make strategic decisions and predict the popularity of bike-sharing apps. However, existing works mostly focus on predicting the popularity of a single app, the popularity contest among different apps has not been explored yet. In this paper, we aim to forecast the popularity contest between Mobike and Ofo, two most popular bike-sharing apps in China. We develop CompetitiveBike, a system to predict the popularity contest among bike-sharing apps leveraging multi-source data. We extract two novel types of features: coarse-grained and fine-grained competitive features, and utilize Random Forest model to forecast the future competitiveness. In addition, we view mobile apps competition as a long-term event and generate the event storyline to enrich our competitive analysis. We collect data about two bike-sharing apps and two food ordering & delivery apps from 11 app stores and Sina Weibo, implement extensive experimental studies, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of our approach.