Comparison of trends in congenital heart disease mortality from 1990 to 2017 between China and North America

Abstract

Objective: To compare trends in congenital heart disease (CHD) mortality between China and North America from 1990 to 2017. Methods: Using the data from the Global Burden Of Disease (GBD) study 2017, we analyzed the related indicators of CHD mortality in China and North America from 1990 to 2017, including standardized mortality, number of deaths, age distribution of death population and age-specific mortality of CHD in each birth cohort. Age-period-cohort model was used to calculate the annual percent change of age-standardized and age-specific mortality rates of CHD (% per year), period effect-adjusted age-specific mortality rates, and the relative risk of death among CHD population at different time periods (2000－2004 as reference period) and different birth cohorts (1970 as reference cohort). Results: In 2017, the age-standardized mortality rates for CHD in China and North America were 2.63/100 000 and 1.13/100 000 respectively, a decrease of 50.4% and 49.4% compared to 1990. Of all deaths from CHD in China, 76.8% were found in children under 5 years, which was higher than that in North America (51.7%). For population under 40 years, the period effect-adjusted age-specific mortality was higher in China (0.46-167.94 per 100 000 person-years) than in North America (0.68-22.47 per 100 000 person-years); whereas for population over 40 years, mortality was lower in China (0.13-0.34/100 000 person years) than in North America (0.43-0.72/100 000 person-years).From 1990 to 2017, CHD mortality in China decreased by 1.95% per year. The annual decrease of mortality ranged from 1.95% to 3.64% per year in population under 45 years, but the mortality showed increasing trends among those over 50 years. In 2015－2019, the relative risk of death from CHD decreased by 31% in China and 24% in North America. For 2015 birth cohort, the relative risk of death decreased by 84% in China and by 64% in North America. Conclusions: In the past 30 years, the risk of death from CHD in China has significantly decreased, and the survival gap with North America is dramatically narrowed. However, mortality is higher among younger populations in China than in North America, and the mortality in the elders shows increasing trends each year in China.