Comparison of SAR‐Based Building Damage Estimation Results With Measured Seismic Intensity and Building Damage in the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake

On January 1, 2024, an earthquake with a maximum seismic intensity of 7 struck the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, causing significant casualties and displacement. The Noto Peninsula has a high aging rate, with 49.5% of its population aged 65 or older. This case study focuses on a 68-year-old woman who developed aspiration pneumonia after being admitted to a welfare shelter. The case highlights the challenges of managing chronic medical care during disasters, particularly for the elderly.

On January 1, 2024, a devastating M 7.6 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, resulting in significant casualties and property damage. Utilizing information from the first six days after the earthquake, this article analyzes the seismic source characteristics, disaster situation, and emergency response of this earthquake. The results show: 1) The earthquake rupture was of the thrust type, with aftershock distribution showing a north-east-oriented belt-like feature of 150 km. 2) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), observations detected significant westward to north-westward co-seismic displacement near the epicenter, with the maximum horizontal displacement reaching 1.2 m and the vertical uplift displacement reaching 4 m. A two-segment fault inversion model fits the observational data well. 3) Near the epicenter, large Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) were observed, with the maxima reaching 145 cm/s and 2681 gal, respectively, and the intensity reached the highest level 7 on the Japanese (Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) intensity standard, which is higher than level 10 of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) standard. 4) The observation of the very rare multiple strong pulse-like ground motion (PLGM) waveform poses a topic worthy of research in the field of earthquake engineering. 5) As of January 7, the earthquake had left 128 deaths and 560 injuries in Ishikawa Prefecture, with 1305 buildings completely or partially destroyed, and had triggered a chain of disasters including tsunamis, fires, slope failures, and road damage. Finally, this paper summarizes the emergency rescue, information dissemination, and other disaster response and management measures taken in response to this earthquake. This work provides a reference case for carrying out effective responses, and offers lessons for handling similar events in the future.

Volcanic ash falls are one of the most widespread and frequent volcanic hazards, and are produced by all explosive volcanic eruptions. Ash falls are arguably the most disruptive volcanic hazard because of their ability to affect large areas and to impact a wide range of assets, even at relatively small thicknesses. From an insurance perspective, the most valuable insured assets are buildings. Ash fall vulnerability curves or functions, which relate the magnitude of ash fall to likely damage, are the most developed for buildings, although there have been important recent advances for agriculture and infrastructure. In this paper, we focus on existing vulnerability functions developed for volcanic ash fall impact on buildings, and apply them to a hypothetical building portfolio impacted by a modern-day Tambora 1815 eruption scenario. We compare and contrast the different developed functions and discuss some of the issues surrounding estimation of potential building damage following a volcanic eruption. We found substantial variability in the different vulnerability estimates, which contribute to large uncertainties when estimating potential building damage and loss. Given the lack of detailed and published studies of building damage resulting from ash fall this is not surprising, although it also appears to be the case for other natural hazards for which there are far more empirical damage data. Notwithstanding the potential limitations of some empirical data in constraining vulnerability functions, efforts are required to improve our estimates of building damage under ash fall loading through the collection of damage data, experimental testing and perhaps theoretical failure analysis. For insurance purposes, the current building typologies provided for use with vulnerability functions are too detailed to map to the relatively limited information on building types that is typically available to insurers. Thus, efforts to provide vulnerability functions that can be used where only limited information is available regarding building types would also be valuable, both for insurers and for at-risk areas that have not been subject to detailed building vulnerability surveys.

The 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake (M 7.6) occurred at a depth of approximately 15 km in the eastern part of Noto Peninsula. The high dip angle faults (50–60°) in this area were formed by the extensional stress field during the formation of the Japan Sea. However, those faults are now active as reverse faults (tectonic inversion faults) in the present compressional stress field. It is important to evaluate the favorability of the faults to slip in the current stress field numerically to understand under what conditions this large earthquake occurred, and where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Therefore, we estimated the stress field around the source region before the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake and evaluated the favorability of slip of the faults using slip tendency (ST) analysis. In the area around the Noto Peninsula, most earthquakes have reverse focal mechanisms, although there are some strike-slip focal mechanisms. The stress field we estimated favors reverse faulting with an NW–SE compressional axis. In addition, the direction of the principal stress axis and the fault strike are oblique in the western area of the Noto Peninsula (non-coaxial), it is possible to cause strike-slip faulting. The optimum value for the horizontal stress direction is rotated 20° clockwise from the western area to eastern area. Our analysis of fault models related to the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake showed large ST values, implying the faults were favorable to slip in the stress field before the Noto Peninsula earthquake. In addition, faults in the Noto Peninsula area identified before the Noto Peninsula earthquake, but which have not yet ruptured, show large ST values. The distribution of large ST values was consistent with the large measured slip amount. Although it is necessary to consider other factors such as the slip history of each fault, the Noto Peninsula earthquake was/is considered to have occurred under conditions that are well-suited to multi-fault rupture.Graphical

On January 1st, 2024, the Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured on a series of coastal offshore reverse faults in the back arc of central Japan. Closest to the rupture, in the northwest, the coastal rocks uplifted as much as 4.4 m (Fukushima Yo et al., 2024). The coastline accordingly moved seaward by up to 200 m creating new wide bedrock platforms. Recent Holocene terraces mapped along the northern coast (Shishikura et al., 2020), where coseismic uplift was greatest on January 1st 2024, suggest similar past ruptures. Many of the ruptured faults follow the coast at a depth of ca. 60 m below modern sea level. This is the average elevation of sea level over the last 500 kyr, and strongly suggests that these faults define the extent of the continental domain.The Peninsula itself hosts 4767 unique mapped terraces ranging in age from Holocene to 1.02 Ma (Ota and Hirakawa, 1979, Koike and Machida, 2001). The terraces associated with the last two interglacial high stands (ca. 120 and 234 ka) record a tectonic SE-tilting similar to that of the Mw 7.5 earthquake. Older terraces all record a spatially uniform rate of uplift across the Peninsula. The landscape itself does not appear to be equilibrated to this gradient in uplift, with a seemingly disconnected fluvial geometry. We conclude that the faults that caused the most recent earthquake became the dominant structures on the Peninsula around 250 ka and that the Peninsula is in a state of transient equilibration.80 km northeast of the Noto Peninsula lies the Island of Sado. The Island is made of two mountain ranges oriented SW-NE along the main tectonic lineation of the back arc, roughly parallel to the northern coast of Noto Peninsula. The marine terraces of the northern range, Oosado, record a strong southeast tilting synchronous and similar to that observed on the Noto Peninsula. The landscape morphology is not equilibrated to this pattern of deformation either. Earlier work by Ota et al., (1992) suggested that the tilt is driven by a fault lying just offshore of the Oosado coast. Closer inspection of the bathymetry reveals a ramp at around -60 m reflecting a geometry similar to the Noto Peninsula. The lessons from the Noto Peninsula earthquake can be applied to Sado Island where information about the seismic cycle is lacking. It confirms the hypothesis of Ota et al. (1992) and highlights a potential seismogenic source close to the shore. Koike, K., & Machida, H. (2001). Atlas of Quaternary… Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press.Ota, Y., & Hirakawa, K. (1979). Marine terraces and… Geographical Review of Japan, 52(4), 169–189.Ota, Y., Miyawaki, A., & Shiomi, M. (1992). Active Faults on Sado Island… Journal of Geography (Chigaku Zasshi), 101(3), 205–224.Shishikura, M., Echigo, T., & Namegaya, Y. (2020). Activity of the off-shore… Active Fault Research, 53, 33–49. Fukushima, Y., Ishimura, D. et al. (2024). Landscape changes caused by... Science Advances, 10(49), eadp9193. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adp9193

The Niigata (Echigo) Plain facing the Sea of Japan is located downstream of two large rivers (the Shinano-gawa River and the Agano-gawa River), and has three sand dune ridges which formed along the coastal areas during the Holocene. Niigata city, with a population of ~770,000, lies in the lower catchment of the alluvial-coastal system. Despite the city being approximately 160 km away from the epicenter of the January 1st 2024 Mw 7.6 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, extensive damage to houses, buildings, and infrastructure occurred throughout Niigata city due to pervasive liquefaction (resulting from the earthquake) in the coastal and lowland areas. Our field investigation focuses on the Nishi-ku (west ward) of the city, where much of the liquefaction-induced building damage (~ 700 houses at the time of submission of the abstract) is concentrated. Although our “ground truth” fieldwork is still ongoing, we have manually mapped the distribution of damaged houses/buildings, road deformation, sand boiling (sand volcanoes), cracks, slides, groundwater springs and other related phenomena onto map sheets, before then digitising these data using GIS.  The distribution of damage is concordant with geomorphology—such as the Holocene sand dunes (and associated landforms) and buried meander loop of the Shinano-gawa River—as well as with subsurface geology (e.g. the location of the water table). Some damage areas are coincident with artificially modified landforms. Liquefaction conspicuously occurred on natural (i.e. not artificially modified) gentle slopes of the Holocene coastal sand dunes and interdune swale/lowland. In particular, ground was liquefied in the lower parts of the landward slope of the sand dune (formed ~1800­–900 years ago) which has a lateral extension of ~7 km at the elevation of ~0–3 m above sea level. Sandy subsurface geology and high groundwater level of the Holocene sand dune, together with the force of gravity on the slopes, were probable contributors to liquefaction. Evidence for liquefaction —including damage to houses—was observed in modern residential areas developed above the buried meander loops of the Shinano-gawa River, which have been historically filled in artificially with sandy material. Damage was also noted in houses built upon an artificially buried pond. However, there was no liquefaction on the natural levee along the abandoned meander loops where relatively old settlements are present. Similar liquefaction occurred in Niigata city on the sand dune slopes and associated lowlands at the time of the M 7.5 Niigata Earthquake in 1964; the epicenter was in the Sea of Japan, approximately 60 km from the city.  Despite the Noto Peninsula Earthquake occurring remotely from Niigata, the aftermath of the earthquake indicates that certain geomorphologic and geological factors, coupled with particular seismic conditions, can result in repeated liquefaction.  The field observation is still ongoing after the earthquake. Therefore this abstract is based on tentative results and analysis of our investigation so far. Further information on liquefaction related to the geomorphology and subsurface geology in this area will be available by the time of the 2024 EGU General Assembly.

The Noto Peninsula earthquake struck the coast of the Noto Peninsula, Japan on March 25, 2007, resulting in the death of one woman and injury to 356 people. A total of 684 houses were totally destroyed by this earthquake, and more than 2,500 people were forced to live at shelters. In this study, we have evaluated the association between the incidence of peripartum abnormalities and seismic intensity of the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Demographic data, births, seismic intensity of the earthquake and the incidence of peripartum abnormalities between June 25, 2007 and January 31, 2008 were surveyed. The dataset included 126 pregnant women who lived in the disaster area. The seismic intensity of the earthquake was expressed on the scale (0-7, with 7 being the strongest measure) used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The subjects of the analysis included 19.7% of the pregnant women affected by the disaster. Of the pregnant women included in this study, 7.9% had a premature rupture of membranes (PROM), with the percentage being significantly higher in the group that experienced a seismic intensity of 6 than in that experienced a seismic intensity of 5. Our epidemiologic study shows that the PROM among our study cohort was associated with seismic intensity, suggesting that the physical outcome was due to aftershocks of the earthquake at a seismic intensity ≥6. This outcome may result from the psychological stress caused by the earthquakes.

On January 1st 2024, a Mw 7.6 earthquake shook the Noto Peninsula on the Sea of Japan coast of Central Japan causing over 202 casualties and >100 missing (at the time of submission). The quake follows a period of intensifying seismic activity starting in 2020. The Mw 6.3 Oku-Noto earthquake of May 5 2023 was the previous largest event of the sequence. The Jan. 1 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake significantly impacted the Peninsula. A large number of landslides and rockfalls dissected the road network. Liquefaction damaged infrastructure up to 150 km away from the epicenter. Meter-scale coseismic uplift modified the northern shoreline with displacement of the coastline by up to 200 m seaward discernible on SAR and aerial image data. At the time of abstract submission (Jan. 10 2024) we only have limited preliminary observations. It appears that the Noto Earthquake ruptured the same or adjacent fault to the May 5 2023 Mw 6.5 earthquake and was in the vicinity of the March 25 2007 Mw 6.9 Noto earthquake. Coseismic displacement measured geodetically shows uplift of up to +3–4 m (SAR) in the northwest of the peninsula (Wajima-shi), and +1.06 m (GPS) in the main town of Wajima-shi. The uplift magnitude decreases gradually to the SE. The uplift is near zero (SAR) or -0.3 m (GPS) on Noto Island (Nanao-shi) 30 km to the south of the town of Wajima. Surface deformation goes back to near zero (GPS) a further 20 km to the south.The coseismic deformation pattern broadly reflects the deformation recorded in the Noto landscape. Long-term moderate rock uplift in the north gives way to a complex history of long-term slow uplift around Noto Island that likely includes sustained episodes of subsidence, highlighted by its sinuous “drowned” coastline. Along the western shore (Shika-machi), marine terraces presumed to be 120 ka (last Interglacial) show a gradient in elevation also decreasing to the south. In the north, the newly emerged platform does not have a higher marine terrace counterpart. This may reflect the relationship between high wave power and moderate rock uplift resulting in the long-term retreat of the coastline and erosion of any terrace. The Noto Peninsula also holds widespread evidence of drainage reorganization that would reflect varying boundary conditions, in particular rock uplift, in deeper time beyond 100’s ka. The similarities between recent landscape morphology and coseismic displacement suggest that the Jan. 1 2024 rupture fits a recent pattern of crustal strain in Noto Peninsula (at least up to 100 ka). Earlier deformation pattern (>100’s ka) likely happened along different faults and/or at different rates as reflected by the transient drainage network.By conference time, we will present field observations collected after the rescue and emergency work is completed.

Natural disaster cannot be stopped but its effect can be minimized or avoided by adopting technology and necessary human adjustment. Earthquake is a natural event which occurs without early warning signs. Computer based earthquake scenarios are used worldwide to describe and estimate the damage from potential earthquakes. The current study is an attempt to explore potential risk with respect to physical infrastructure and assess modeled and actual physical damage and human loss caused by different earthquake scenario and actual 2015 earthquake event in Thecho of Kathmandu valley. The earthquake scenario is based on two nearest fault lines. Risk Assessment Tools for the Diagnosis of Urban Seismic Risk (RADIUS) method has been applied for estimation of potential building damage and casualties..The research has adopted integrated approach using secondary and primary data sources such as field observation, key informant survey and building survey through purposive random sampling.The study found that potential building damage estimated by RADIUS for Gorkha 2015 earthquake scenario and North-west (Khokana) are lower than the actual post-earthquake assessment whereas North earthquake scenario resulted higher loss. Actual damage caused by 2015 earthquake compared to modeled damage from RADIUS is found higher because additional damaged were made by successive aftershocks. Spatial distribution of potential building damage for earthquake scenarios and actual 2015 earthquake event is also variable. North-Nuwakot Earthquake Scenario resulted more hazardous than the North-Khokana scenario though the location of epicenter is relatively farther with high intensity. The study concluded that though earthquake occurrence and disaster is still less predictable risk assessment tools like RADIUS and mitigation measures based on such is important for reducing risk of earthquake disaster.The Geographical Journal of NepalVol. 11: 127-136, 2018

The Noto Peninsula earthquake occurred on January 1, 2024, and many disaster-related deaths were reported. We investigated the characteristics and causes of disaster-related deaths in the year following the Noto Peninsula earthquake. We used 270 texts as data on disaster-related deaths in Ishikawa Prefecture released by local governments from January to December 2024. Data included demographics, causes of death, and causal events leading to death. Causes of death were classified using International Classification of Disease-10 codes, and descriptive statistics were obtained for demographics and causes of death. We used text mining to analyze the causal events and describe the causal factors leading to disaster-related deaths. There were no sex-based differences, and approximately 95% of the victims were in their 70s or older. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (46 cases, 33.8%), followed by respiratory disease (45 cases, 33.1%). The text-mining results showed that events related to transportation, such as "environmental changes due to transportation between facilities" and "worsening of general condition due to long hours of transportation," were specifically identified as causal events. Disaster-related deaths due to this earthquake were similar to those during past disasters, and events related to the transportation of older adults highlighted the possibility that deaths may have accelerated. Healthcare providers and disaster policymakers should create systems that allow long-term, continuous healthcare for older adults at high risk of disaster-related deaths without transporting them from their communities to the degree possible.

The lessons from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and Chuuetsu Earthquake showed us how difficult it is to keep chronic disease management for survivors of such large-scale earthquakes, particularly for elderly people. To solve the problem, an ordinance for enforcement on exceptional practices was issued for the Pharmaceutical Affairs Law Article 49 Clause 1. The law allows selling prescription medicines for patients with chronic diseases who have difficulties to continue their medications due to a large-scale disaster. To make it work, the patient should demonstrate that he or she continuously received the medication by presenting either Medication Notebook or prescription book recorded by the pharmacist. However, the Separation Rate of Prescription and Dispensing in Japan is still low; in particular, that in Ishikawa prefecture, where the Noto Peninsula Earthquake (M 6.9) occurred on March 25, 20007, is very low. It means that few victims hold a Medication Notebook. In consideration of this situation, we conducted a questionnaire survey of elderly victims of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake with a key-informant-interview during the period from July through August, 2007. This study revealed that: 1) Only 16% (18/110) of respondents kept a Medication Notebook; 2) 75% (82/110) had chronic diseases and received medication regularly; 3) Of 81 who had chronic diseases, 42% (34/91) were dispensed at the same pharmacy always, (The rest received from either clinic or changing pharmacy according to clinic location); and 4) Diseases that the respondents had were hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and so on. Based on these results, we discuss the establishment of a pharmaceutical supply system that can effectively distribute appropriate medicines to patients under difficult situations following a large-scale disaster in Japan.

Rapid and comprehensive assessment of building damage caused by earthquakes is essential for effective emergency response and rescue efforts in the immediate aftermath. Advanced technologies, including real-time simulations, remote sensing, and multi-sensor systems, can effectively enhance situational awareness and structural damage evaluations. However, most existing methods rely on isolated time snapshots, and few studies have systematically explored the continuous, time-scaled integration and update of building damage estimates from multiple data sources. This study proposes a stepwise framework that continuously updates time-scaled, single-damage estimation outputs using the best available multi-sensor data for estimating earthquake-induced building damage. We demonstrated the framework using the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake as a case study and incorporated official damage reports from the Ishikawa Prefectural Government, real-time earthquake building damage estimation (REBDE) data, and satellite-based damage estimation data (ALOS-2-building damage estimation (BDE)). By integrating the REBDE and ALOS-2-BDE datasets, we created a composite damage estimation product (integrated-BDE). These datasets were statistically validated against official damage records. Our framework showed significant improvements in accuracy, as demonstrated by the mean absolute percentage error, when the datasets were integrated and updated over time: 177.2% for REBDE, 58.1% for ALOS-2-BDE, and 25.0% for integrated-BDE. Finally, for stepwise damage estimation, we proposed a methodological framework that incorporates social media content to further confirm the accuracy of damage assessments. Potential supplementary datasets, including data from Internet of Things-enabled home appliances, real-time traffic data, very-high-resolution optical imagery, and structural health monitoring systems, can also be integrated to improve accuracy. The proposed framework is expected to improve the timeliness and accuracy of building damage assessments, foster shared understanding of disaster impacts across stakeholders, and support more effective emergency response planning, resource allocation, and decision-making in the early stages of disaster management in the future, particularly when comprehensive official damage reports are unavailable.

At 16:10 (JST) on January 1, 2024, a magnitude Mj 7.6 earthquake struck the northern Noto Peninsula, Japan. The earthquake caused intense ground shaking, with the peak ground acceleration (PGA) reaching 2,828 gal, which is one of the highest values ever recorded. Over 2,300 landslides were triggered, causing severe damage to infrastructure. The Noto Peninsula has long been vulnerable to significant seismic activity and has experienced a sustained seismic swarm from November 2020 to May 2023, during which at least 20,000 earthquakes with magnitudes of Mj≥1.0 were recorded. In mountainous areas, earthquakes are often accompanied by coseismic landslides. Owing to the frequent seismic swarm activity in the Noto Peninsula, long-term vigilance is essential to mitigate the hazards of earthquake-induced landslides and related secondary disasters. This study focuses on the Okubo District of Wajima City, Ishikawa Prefecture, which experienced a high concentration of landslides during the earthquake, including the largest observed landslide. A 3D dynamic elastoplastic finite element method was applied to simulate seismic ground responses and reassess the landslides triggered by the earthquake. The simulation emphasizes the spatial distribution of shear stress and PGA during seismic loading. Comparing the simulation results with the observed landslide inventory reveals that zones of elevated shear stress and PGA generally correspond to documented landslide locations. These findings suggest that the proposed numerical modeling approach can effectively identify potentially high-hazard slopes over a wide area, thereby supporting the development of a landslide-susceptibility map for the earthquake-prone Noto Peninsula.

The 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake occurred on January 1st in 2024 with a maximum intensity of 7, in the northwestern part of Japan. The earthquake caused a magnitude 7.6 at the depth of about 15 km in the Noto region of Ishikawa Prefecture. The epicentre was in the city of Suzu, 42 km northeast of the town of Anamizu. The JMA magnitude (Mj) of the earthquake was 7.6, which is a rare magnitude for an inland earthquake in Japan. The maximum intensity observed was intensity 7 in Wajima City and Hakui County, Ishikawa Prefecture. The seismic mechanism of this earthquake was a reverse fault type with a pressure axis in the northwest-southeast direction, and the earthquake occurred within the earth's crust. The earthquake caused extensive damage, mainly in the northern part of the Noto Peninsula, as houses collapsed one after another, the death toll exceeded 200 people and transport networks were disrupted. The number of fatalities was 241, and 1,297 people were seriously or slightly injured. The number of damaged houses was approximately 100,000, including 9,368 houses completely destroyed. This report provides a preliminary report on the damage caused by the Noto Earthquake and the occurrence of slope failures and dammed lakes and liquefaction that are typical of inland earthquakes.

The 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Mw 7.5) caused extensive damage in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, and surrounding areas, with considerable coastal uplift and tsunami flooding. Past 100 years’ records show no earthquake above Mw 7.0 in the Noto Peninsula, so for everyone alive today, this event is truly without precedent. Therefore, we aimed to support disaster prevention education by developing teaching materials using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) based on digitally archived topographic changes. High-definition topographic data collected from multiple UAV surveys were processed into digital and analog formats, including 3D models, spherical panorama images, and 3D printings. These materials were designed to provide detailed and intuitive representations of post-disaster landforms and were used as educational tools in schools. The learning materials were introduced during a workshop for disaster-affected teachers, featuring hands-on activities to help participants familiarize themselves with the materials, and explore their integration into geography and science classes. Feedback from participants indicated that these tools were highly effective in enhancing classroom learning. The results of this study are expected to contribute to preserving disaster records while enhancing disaster awareness in educational settings and local communities.