Comparison of mathematical models of maturation rate of the airborne Venturia inaequalis (Cooke) Wint. ascospores in central Poland

Abstract

Models of maturation rate of the airborne Venturia inaequalis (Cooke) Wint. ascospores were compared using field data collected from spore traps in Skierniewice, Poland, during 2005–2008 and 2010–2014. Two sets of models describing ascospores maturation rate as a function of cumulative temperature were compared. The first set consisted of the “Stensvand” model with degrees summed during and 147 h after the rainfall, and the “Only” type models accumulating temperature only during hours with observed high moisture level indicated by rain, leaf wetness or high humidity. The second set consisted of more complex “All” type models proposed in the study, with degrees summed each hour, but differently weighted for periods with various sources of moisture such as rain, leaf wetness (LW) and relative air humidity (RH). The “All” type models proved to be superior over the “Only” type models. The “All Rain + LW + RH,” “All Rain + LW,” “All LW” and the “Stensvand” models gave the best match with the data. The final and most important result of the study is such that all of the examined models had high and unsatisfactory range of models’ uncertainty for the data from central Poland. Therefore, further improvements in modeling of ascospore maturation rate are necessary. Low accuracy of the models limits their practical application at the current stage of development.