Comparison of different critical care scoring systems in prognosis evaluation of heat stroke

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of different critical care scoring systems in 28-day survival rate of patients with heat stroke. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 71 patients with heat stroke admitted to the department of emergency medicine of Beijing Luhe Hospital. Capital Medical University from July 2015 to September 2018. The general information and the worst values of vital signs and related pathophysiological indicators within 24 hours were collected and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) , multiple organ dysfunction (MODS) , simplified acute physiological scoreⅡ (SAPS Ⅱ) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHE Ⅱ) were calculated. The patients were divided into the survival group (n=45) and the non-survival group (n=26) according to 28-day prognosis, and the clinical data and scores of the two groups were compared.The ROC curve was drawn to analyze the evaluation value of each scoring system on the survival rate of patients at 28-day. Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curve of patients. Results: There were no significant differences in age, sex, vital signs and laboratory parameters between two groups (P>0.05) . In non-survival patients, SOFA, SAPS Ⅱ, APACHE Ⅱ scores were significantly elevated in the survival group (P<0.05) . ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) of SOFA score for predicting 28-day survival rate was the highest, which was significantly higher than the APACHE Ⅱ, SAPS Ⅱ, MODS score. When the best cut-off value of SOFA score was 9.0, the sensitivity was 84.6%, and the specificity was 71.1%. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that 28-day survival rate after hospital discharge in patients with SOFA score<9 (n=27) was significantly higher than that in patients with SOFA score ≥9.0 (χ(2)=1.0, P<0.01) . Conclusion: SOFA, APACHE Ⅱ, SAPS Ⅱ on admission have been proved to have good prognostic ability to predict 28-day prognosis in heat stroke patients. Among them, SOFA score system has more accurate prediction value.