Comparison of Chen's Fuzzy Time Series and Triple Exponential Smoothing in Forecasting Medicine Stocks at the Blang Cut Kuala Community Health Center

Abstract

Forecasting is estimating future conditions by examining conditions in the past. In social life, everything is uncertain and difficult to predict precisely, so forecasting is needed. Efforts are always made to make forecasts in order to minimize the influence of this uncertainty on a problem. In other words, forecasting aims to obtain forecasts that can minimize forecast errors, which are usually measured by the mean absolute percentage error. This method is usually used for time series-based forecasting and uses data or information from the past as a reference when predicting current data. This research will compare the application of the Fuzzy Time Series Chen method and the Triple Exponential Smoothing method in forecasting drug stock determination at the Kuala Community Health Center, Blang Mangat District, Lhokseumawe City Regency, Aceh. The research results showed that the Triple Exponential Smoothing method was better in forecasting drug stock inventories compared to Chen's Fuzzy Time Series method. Chen's Fuzzy Time Series method produces a MAPE value of 17.67%, which means it has an accuracy of 82.33%, while the Triple Exponential Smoothing method produces a MAPE value of 9.842%, which means it has an accuracy of 90.158%