Comparison of ARCHER MPERC to NHC Analysis

Abstract

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are events that occur in intense tropical cyclones (TCs) and are difficult to predict. An ERC event involves a secondary outer eyewall that surrounds the inner eyewall. The outer eyewall slowly moves towards the eye and weakens the inner eyewall, eventually replacing the inner eyewall. During this process, wind speeds lower and the structure of a TC becomes disorganized, further weakening the storm. TCs often restrengthen after an ERC. Little is known about the process and as such, poses an obstacle to forecasters. The Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) is an algorithm that uses 89-95 GHz passive microwave imagery and intensity estimates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to predict the possibility of an ERC. The effectiveness and ability of ARCHER MPERC was analyzed and compared to the NHC’s official reports on all Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from 2017 to 2019. MPERC ultimately predicted seventeen ERCs in nine tropical cyclones. Of those, seven were valid ERCs. The algorithm works well, predicting approximately 41% of the total number of predictions correctly. However, MPERC did not predict five ERCs that were cited by the NHC. It was further found that it was true that MPERC produces incorrect results in sheared and dry environments.