Comparison of a Novel Score “NOD−ACLF” to Other Established Prognostic Scores for Prediction of Mortality in APASL−ACLF Patients: A Cohort Study from a Tertiary Care Center of North India

Abstract

Commonly used prognostic scores for acute on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) have complex calculations. We tried to compare the simple counting of numbers and types of organ dysfunction to these scores, to predict mortality in ACLF patients. In this prospective cohort study, ACLF patients diagnosed on the basis of Asia Pacific Association for Study of the Liver (APASL) definition were included. Severity scores were calculated. Prognostic factors for outcome were analysed. A new score, the Number of Organ Dysfunctions in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (NOD-ACLF) score was developed. Among 80 ACLF patients, 74 (92.5%) were male, and 6 were female (7.5%). The mean age was 41.0±10.7 (18-70) years. Profile of acute insult was; alcohol 48 (60%), sepsis 30 (37.5%), variceal bleeding 22 (27.5%), viral 8 (10%), and drug-induced 3 (3.8%). Profiles of chronic insults were alcohol 61 (76.3%), viral 20 (25%), autoimmune 3 (3.8%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis 2 (2.5%). Thirty-eight (47.5%) were discharged, and 42 (52.5%) expired. The mean number of organ dysfunction (NOD-ACLF score) was ->4.5, simple organ failure count (SOFC) score was >2.5, APASL ACLF Research Consortium score was >11.5, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate (MELD-LA) score was >21.5, and presence of cardiovascular and respiratory dysfunctions were significantly associated with mortality. NOD-ACLF and SOFC scores had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic to predict mortality among all these. The NOD-ACLF score is easy to calculate bedside and is a good predictor of mortality in ACLF patients performing similar or better to other scores.