Abstract
The key problem which the control of landslide hazard is the prediction of landslide fatalness, successful landslide forecast can consumedly decrease the loss caused by landslide hazard. Landslide spatial forecast can determine the location of unstable slope. For a certain landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area, according to the existing monitoring data and analysis methods, such as: nonlinear regression analysis method, exponential smoothing and gray prediction method, to forecast deformation tendency of landslide from quantitative point and take comparative study. Results indicate that the gray prediction method is more tally with the reality in the deformation prediction. It can provide reference for deformation forecast of similar landslide or slope prevention in chongqing and Three Gorges Reservoir area.
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