Comparative Study of Aggregate and Disaggregate Traffic Forecasting Technique for Industrial Corridor: Case Study of Vadodara District

Abstract

Abstract Transportation occupies a prominent place in modern life and its impact is spread in all domains of life. Transport planning is a discipline to study problems rising while planning transport facilities at urban, regional or national level and to prepare efficient basis for providing such facilities. Aim of transport planning at regional level is provision of connectivity and circuity with other regions as well as for expansion of existing facility for future needs. The key success for transportation planning is the accurate forecasting of vehicular movement. The accuracy of traffic forecasting is a point of substantial importance to the effective sharing of rationed resources. With this purpose, study was conducted to develop traffic flow prediction model by aggregate approach and disaggregate approach for industrial corridor (i.e., state highway 158) passing through Savali taluka in Vadodara, India. To accomplish this goal, traffic volume of past 10 years collected in two terms, pre-monsoon and port-monsoon from state Public Work Department. For aggregate approach, economic parameters such as investment and employment generated in the region while in disaggregate approach time series analysis using auto regressive technique were utilized for traffic prediction. The relation developed between existing traffic and investment as well as with employment was found to be linear. Precision of model was gauged, based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) rather only considering the coefficient of determination. Finally, the study highlights the effects of economic development on transport infrastructure and its future need in the region. The results and approaches adopted here can be useful for planners in implementation and development of a transportation system. Keywords: Traffic Flow Predictions, Econometric Models, Regional Transport Planning, Transport Infrastructure Cite this Article Rohit Galani, Devang P. Majithiya. Comparative Study of Aggregate and Disaggregate Traffic Forecasting Technique for Industrial Corridor- case study of Vadodara District. Trends in Transport Engineering and Applications . 2018; 5(1): 14–21p.