Comparative Evaluation of Forecasting Methods for Tourist Arrival Prediction: A Sliding Window-Based Analysis

Economic Vulnerabilities and Livelihoods: Impact of <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 in Fiji and Vanuatu

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a catastrophic impact on the tourist activity in Kenya. Global lockdown has limited travel resulting to losses in the tourism sector. This paper discusses the specific role that fiscal policy plays to improve tourism competitiveness in Kenya. Specifically, the study examines how Kenyan government can revive the tourism economy to improve its competitiveness.Design/methodology/approachA tourism demand model to explore relationship between fiscal policies and inbound tourism in Kenya is developed. This study uses a Markov regime-switching (MS) regression model to establish the relationships that exist between COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policies and tourism revenue in Kenya.FindingsThe estimation results of the Markov-switching dynamic regression showed that the coefficients of international tourists arrivals, domestic bed occupancy and international bed occupancy are positive and significant with p-values of 0.000 during the pandemic period. The findings show that the transitioning periods during the fiscal policy shifts had an effect on the international arrivals. Therefore, fiscal incentives were key in influencing tourism arrivals and bednights occupancies.Research limitations/implicationsThe theoretical implications show that to promote the state of high international and domestic tourist arrivals, the government should encourage more fiscal spending initiatives that encourage the increase in tourist arrivals and occupancies such as vaccinations against COVID-19 and promoting safe spaces for visitors within the destination is key towards reviving the sector. In order to curb the hysteresis effects of COVID-19 related depression and resultant impacts on GDP, there is a need to review the national fiscal policies and target fiscal policies on the cyclical effects of the COVID-19 impacts on international tourism market.Originality/valueThis research develops an economic model that builds accurate relationships between fiscal policies, pandemics and tourism destination competitiveness as a means of informing competitive tourism management strategies and governance.

The Covid-19 pandemic that occurred in Indonesia starting in March 2020 affected the tourism sector of West Nusa Tenggara Province, especially Lombok Island where the business of transportation services, hotels, restaurants, and other businesses declined sharply due to travel restrictions and established protocols. The purpose of this study is to identify the impacts that occur on the tourism sector and identify the strategies of local governments and business actors in overcoming the spread of Covid and reducing its impact on the tourism sector. This study uses a qualitative descriptive method using observations, interviews, and secondary data. The results showed that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the tourism sector of Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara was very significant in terms of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals which decreased drastically, hotel occupancy decreased to around 20% from the previous 47%, workforce reduction of 15,000 people, level of hospitality, and other business impacts. Efforts made by the government and tourism businesses to reduce the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the tourism sector include the promotion and marketing of tourism, the Gemilang I, II, and III Social Safety Net (JPS) programs involving IKM/MSMEs, logistics certainty and vaccinations. to reduce health risks due to Covid-19, and plan national and international events to attract tourists to return to Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara.

Tourism is widely recognised as one of the world’s largest and fastest growing industries, accounting for approximately 10% of the global GDP, and employing a growing workforce of 283.5 million. In the context of Sri Lanka, the tourism sector is the 3rd largest foreign income earner and the total contribution to the economy is around 12% of GDP. This paper examines the recent trends in Chinese tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka along with the comparative position of Sri Lanka as an outbound tourism destination of China. It is observed that during the period of 1984 – 1994, Germany held the number one spot in Sri Lanka’s tourist arrivals. Until 2004, Germany, India and the UK were the ‘top 3’ countries among Sri Lanka’s tourist arrivals, and China’s contribution to local tourism was insignificant. In 2014, however, China was raised to the rank of the 3rd major tourist partner of Sri Lanka, accountingfor 8.4% of total tourist arrivals. Moreover, Chinese tourist arrivals grew remarkably by 72.5% in 2010-2016, while Indian and UK tourist arrivals increased only by 19.3% and 10.3%, respectively. Furthermore, tourist arrivals from China increased by 68% in 2015 compared to 2014, while Indian tourist arrivals grew only by 30%. Despite the impressive growth rate in Chinese tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka, these numbers are negligible in comparison to Chinese outbound tourism to other countries. Even though Sri Lanka was among the top 25 tourist destinations of Chinese travellers in 2007, it no longer holds this valuable position. Thus, this study recommends promoting Sri Lankan tourism destinations, e-tourism sites, improving air-connectivity between the two countries and cultivating tourism-friendly ‘soft power’ by celebrating festivals such as Chinese New Year, increasing the number of Chinese-speaking guides and hotel staff and introducing Chinese-language apps for tourists in order to multiply prospective tourists from China.

Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism

Sustainable tourism management policies should aim at maximising economic benefits from tourist arrivals while minimizing associated adverse impacts on the environment. This study assesses the short-run and long-run relationships between tourist arrivals, per capita economic output, emissions, energy consumption and capital formation, citing Nepal as a specific case study. We developed four hypotheses and tested them using time-series econometrics based on the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality tests. The results provide strong evidence of an economy driven tourism sector where expansion in economic output leads to expansion in tourist arrivals. More tourist arrivals, in turn, generate positive impacts on gross capital formation. Energy consumption negatively affects tourist arrivals, calling for increased attention towards improving energy efficiency and energy diversity. We conclude that national policies to increase tourist arrivals should be integrated with national energy and environmental policies in order to facilitate the transition towards a sustainable tourism sector.

Assessing the COVID-19 pandemic impact on tourism arrivals: The role of innovation to reshape the future work for sustainable development

Sektor pariwisata mempunyai peran strategis dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, khususnya di kawasan yang memiliki banyak daya tarik wisata, seperti Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB). Seringkali masih terdapat berbagai masalah yang menghambat perkembangannya, seperti kurangnya investasi yang optimal, terbatasnya jumlah wisatawan, dan terbatasnya jumlah hotel yang memadai. Permasalahan tersebut memerlukan perhatian khusus karena dapat menghambat pertumbuhan sektor pariwisata secara berkelanjutan. Tujuan dilakukannya peneltian ini guna mengidentifikasi variabel-variabel pengaruh seperti Penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN) Sektor Pariwisata, Jumlah wisatawan, dan Jumlah hotel. Pada penelitian ini sampel diambil dari 10 Kabupaten/Kota selama 10 tahun, dari tahun 2014 hingga 2023. Total sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 100 data yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Satu Indonesia serta Dinas Pariwisata Provinsi NTB. Stata 17 merupakan perangkat lunak yang digunakan untuk menerapkan analisis regresi data panel untuk memproses data dalam penelitian ini. Temuan dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial, Penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN) Sektor pariwisata, Jumlah wisatawan, serta Jumlah hotel mempunyai efek positif yang substansial terhadap Pertumbuhan ekonomi sektor pariwisata di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) Tahun 2014-2023. Kata Kunci : Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Sektor Pariwisata, Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri, Jumlah Wisatawan, Jumlah Hotel. Abstract The tourism sector has a strategic role in driving economic growth, especially in areas that have many tourist attractions, such as West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province. Often there are still various problems that hinder its development, such as the lack of optimal investment, fluctuations in the number of tourists, and the limited number of adequate hotels. These problems require special attention because they can hinder the growth of the tourism sector in a sustainable manner. The purpose of this research is to identify the influence of variables such as domestic investment (PMDN) in the tourism sector, the number of tourists, and the number of hotels. In this study, samples were taken from 10 regencies/cities for 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. The total sample used was 100 data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Satu Indonesia and the NTB Provincial Tourism Office. Stata 17 is the software used to apply panel data regression analysis to process the data in this study. The findings of the study show that partially, domestic investment (PMDN) in the tourism sector, the number of tourists, and the number of hotels have a substantial positive effect on economic growth in the tourism sector in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province in 2014-2023. Keywords: Economic Growth, Tourism Sector, Domestic Investment, Number of Tourists, Number of Hotels.

Background:Salivary gland ultrasound (SGUS) is a valuable modality for the diagnosis of primary Sjögren’s syndrome (pSS). However, the widespread use of it as standardized diagnostic tools is limited by inter/intra...

Goal and objectives of the dissertationThe goal of this research is to critically evaluate the possibility of a strategic approach to tourism development in Novi Sad (Serbia) by applying the principle of tourism learning area (TLA). The following seven objectives are developed in order to achieve the aim of the study:1. To provide theoretical explanation and definition of TLA,2. To identify stakeholders of Novi Sad tourism sector,3. To examine the characteristics and resources of tourist destination Novi Sad,4. To conduct an environmental analysis of tourism industry in Novi Sad,5. To identify learning needs and opportunities of tourist destination Novi Sad,6. To explore relationship between transformational and transactional leadership, job satisfaction (JS) and dimensions of a learning organisation (DLO), and7. To indicate available funds and initiatives to increase the capacity of the destination.Methodology:The sample consists of employees from tourism sector. The total number of respondents was 118, out of which 3 were invalid. Therefore, the total number included in this research was 115. The transformational and transactional leadership questionnaire was used in this research (Bass & Avolio, 1990). The transformational leadership questionnaire consists of 11 items that are rated on the 7- point Likert scale (1- totally disagree, 7- completely agree). The transactional leadership questionnaire consists of 4 items with 7-point Likert scale (1- totally disagree, 7- completely agree). Marsick and Watkins (2003) developed an instrument that diagnoses the current status of learning within an organisation. The instrument that allows this is the Dimensions of the Learning Organisation Questionnaire- DLOQ. In this research, the full version of the questionnaire was used, consisted of 43 items with a 6-point Likert scale (1-almost never, 6- almost always). This instrument has proved to have a great value in use for both academic and practical purposes. The data was collected using standard pen and paper procedure, as well using electronic questionnaire with support of Google Documents Survey. The collected data was mined and analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for Windows Release 17.0.0. The research has been conducted on the territory of City of Novi Sad.Results:The research conducted in this doctoral dissertation has expanded the concept of learning culture beyond the borders of USA and suggests that it is not a phenomena specific only for the West. The tourism stakeholders have been identified using stakeholder matrix method. Investments in tourism industry in Novi Sad have increased in the past ten years, especially in hospitality sector. The number of tourist bed nights and arrivals is in recovery process from the crisis of 2008. The number of foreign tourist arrivals is increasing, whereas the number of domestic tourist arrivals is decreasing. TOWS analysis has generated two potential tourism development strategies: mini- mini or maxi-mini strategy. Dimensions of Learning Organisation Questionnaire (DLOQ) was translated and adapted so that it could be used with Serbian-speaking populations. Serbian version of DLOQ revealed similar or better characteristics in terms of statistical properties to the original. Using DLOQ instrument, organisations can determine their level of organisational development and learning culture, diagnose problems and offer solutions. Correlation analysis has proven positive correlation between JS, transformational leadership, transactional leadership and all DLOs. JS is a correlation mediator between transformational leadership and DLO in only three of seven dimensions (Create continuous learning opportunities- individual level, Encourage collaboration and team learning- team level and Create systems to capture and share learning- organisational level). In all other factors of DLO, the transformational leadership factor has not lost its impact. …

Tourism is a major contributor to the Sri Lankan economy and is heavily affected by external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to explore the impact of the pandemic on tourist arrivals using advanced statis-tical methods to model the complex time series in tourism data. Interrupted regression and Bayesian spline regression are used to capture the non-linear, phase specific patterns in tourist arrivals during and after the pandemic. In-terrupted regression models the structural shift caused by the pandemic and gives insights into the sudden changes in tourist flows. Bayesian spline re-gression provides flexibility to model the non-linear trends and gives a more detailed understanding of how tourism patterns evolve over time. The study highlights the importance of addressing over-dispersion in the data which is common in count data like tourist arrivals. A Negative Binomial model is used to account for this over-dispersion and improves the predictions. Unlike the Poisson distribution which assumes the variance is equal to the mean, the Negative Binomial model allows for more variability and hence better model fit. The results show a general recovery in tourist arrivals but the uncertainty in the forecasts raises questions whether the tourism sector will go back to pre-pandemic levels or new patterns will emerge. This uncertainty highlights the need for ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies to ensure the long term sustainability of the sector. Moreover, the use of posterior predictive distributions gives more insights into future tourist arrivals by accounting for uncertainty and providing a range of possible outcomes rather than single point estimates. This is useful for stakeholders including government bod-ies, travel agencies and businesses to make informed decisions and develop strategies to support the tourism industry’s recovery and growth in the post pandemic era.

This study examined the influence of international tourism and foreign direct investment on economic growth in Morocco during the period 1983–2018. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and causality tests, the study analyzed the relationship between real GDP, tourist arrivals, foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into the tourism sector and FDI in the others sectors. The results obtained indicate that there is a positive relationship between tourist arrivals and economic growth in the long-run. The results also show that non-tourism FDI has a positive and significant impact on economic growth, while tourism FDI has a negative effect on economic growth. In addition, long-run causality results show that the hypothesis of economic growth driven by tourist arrivals and foreign direct investment is significant at the 1% level. Similarly, our results show that in the long-run, the hypothesis of tourism demand driven by economic growth and FDI is significant at the 1% level. The Granger causality test reveals a one-way causal relationship from economic growth to tourist arrivals, FDI flows in the tourism sectors and FDI flows in the non-tourism sectors in Morocco. This study suggests that decisions-makers should align the tourism strategy with other sectoral plans in a global, coherent and integrated strategic vision to take full advantage of FDI and international tourism. Policy implications of this study and future research suggestions are also mentionned.

Tourism sector has a tendency to be proposed as a support for national economy to many countries with various of natural resources, such as Indonesia. The number of tourist is very related with the success rate of a tourist attraction, since it is also related with planning and strategy. Hence, it is important to predict the climate of tourism in Indonesia, especially the number of domestic or international tourist in the future. This study uses Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series method to predict the number of tourist arrival to tourism strategic areas in Nusa Tenggara Barat. The prediction was done using the international and domestic tourist arrival to Nusa Tenggara Barat data from January 2008 to June 2016. The established SARIMA method was (0,1,1)(0,0,2)12 with MAPE error of 15.76. The prediction for the next six time periods showed that the highest number of tourist arrival is during September 2016 with 330,516 tourist arrivals. Prediction of tourist arrival hopefully might be used as reference for local and national government to make policies to strengthen national economy for a long period of time

Indonesia has made the tourism sector one of its current development priorities. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has harmed various economic sectors, and the tourism sector is the most affected in Indonesia. As a result of policies carried out by various countries including Indonesia, such as lockdown, social distancing, and its kind, economic activity has slowed, tourist arrivals have decreased drastically, and investment has decreased due to the uncertainty caused by the pandemic. This study aims to examine the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on tourist arrivals and investment (domestic and foreign investment) and its impact on the economic growth of the tourism sector in Indonesia. This study uses the path analysis method by using mediating variables, namely tourist arrivals, and investment paths. Panel data regression is used to regress the path analysis equation, with data series 2018q1 – 2021q2 and cross-sections in 22 provinces in Indonesia that have tourist entrances.

COVID-19 has been rapidly spreading across the globe, taking thousands of lives and bringing hundreds of economies to downturn and this review study comprehensively examines the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, inflation, stock market, poverty, employment and tourism industry downturn in Sri Lanka.In Sri Lanka, the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported on 27th January 2020. The infected person was a Chinese national who had arrived in Sri Lanka as a tourist two weeks prior to the reported date. After the treatments she was fully recovered and discharged on 19th February 2020.However, the worldwide travel bans imposed during the pandemic period, the arrival of tourists in the country decreased by 71% in March 2020 and tourists arrivals were nil in the following months of April, May and June. Similarly, the Purchasing Manager's Index [PMI] of the manufacturing sector, which was recorded at 54 in January 2020 dropped to 24.2 in April 2020 specifically owing to a decline in new orders, production and employment. Further, industrial exports in the country dropped by 74% while agricultural exports declined by 32% on a year over year basis, thereby posing an unfavourable effect on export earnings in the country.The impact of the pandemic on Small and Medium Scale Enterprises [SMEs] and the informal sector including daily wage earners was severe. One of another most pressing issues to be noted in terms of the social impacts of the pandemic is the disruption of educational activities. Lockdown restrictions that accompanied the demands for social distancing resulted in the closure of primary, secondary and tertiary educational establishments (Eg: schools, universities and support classes) As a relief , the government introduced a debt repayment moratorium which included a six-month debt moratorium for affected industries in tourism, garment, plantation and IT sectors and SMEs.the main objective of this review study is to explore the economic crisis arisen in Sri Lanka due to COVID-19. Accordingly, it is discussed about the various economic matters of macro and micro economic factors like Gross Domestic Production (GDP), employment, tourism, poverty, inflation and stock market effects along with valid statistical evidences. First heading of this paper discusses about the historical perspectives of global pandemics while bringing out sufficient evidences from the existing researches.