Abstract
Hurricane Michael made landfall on 10 October 2018 as only the third Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) category 5 storm in the USA in the named era. The storm’s intensity, rapid intensification, October landfall, high inland winds, and uncommon landfall location all combined to complicate the communication and preparation efforts of emergency managers (EMs) and broadcast meteorologists (BMs), while clouding the comprehension of the public. Interviews were conducted with EMs, BMs, and a small public sample to hear their stories and identify and understand common themes and experiences. This information and previous research was used to inform the creation of questions for a large sample public survey. Results showed that 61% of our sample did not evacuate, and approximately 80% either underestimated the intensity, misinterpreted or did not believe the forecast, or realized the danger too late to evacuate. Hazard perception from a survey of the public revealed that wind followed by tornadoes, and falling trees were the major concerns across the region. According to their counties of residence, participants were divided into Coastal or Inland, and Heavily Impacted or Less Impacted categories. Inland participants expressed a significantly higher concern for wind, tornadoes, falling trees, and rainfall/inland flooding than Coastal participants. Participants from Heavily Impacted counties showed greater concern for storm surge, tornadoes, and falling trees than participants from Less Impacted counties. These results reinforce the continued need for all parties of the weather enterprise to strengthen communication capabilities with EMs and the public for extreme events.
Highlights
Hurricanes are a naturally occurring aspect of the climate system on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts
As disseminators of the storm information, broadcast meteorologists (BMs) faced the same challenge as the emergency managers (EMs)
This research examined the experiences of both public safety professionals and members of the public in December 2018 following the landfall of Hurricane Michael
Summary
Hurricanes are a naturally occurring aspect of the climate system on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. The recurrence intervals for major hurricanes, SSHWS category 3 and greater, vary from a rare 105 years near the northeast coast in Jacksonville to active zones across South Florida ranging from 13–18 years and the northwest. Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola of 21 years (Keim et al, 2007). The recurrence interval for major hurricanes at Panama City Beach, FL, near the landfall location of Hurricane Michael was a rare 105 years [2]. (SSHWS category 3) of 12 years for Miami, 24 years for Pensacola, but a much lower 40 years for Panama City than Keim et al [2]. Additional modeling research in the Florida Panhandle just west of Panama City found a 100 year peak wind gust of 58 m·s−1 , which corresponds with the start of SSHWS category 4 conditions [4]. Hurricane Michael was a statistical example of an extreme event that exceeded what many people thought was realistic for wind speeds on this stretch of coastline
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