Abstract

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake lead to various complex multi-hazard chains that included seismically-triggered landslide initiation, landslide run-out, river damming, dam breaching and flooding. The modelling of the interactions between such hazardous processes is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainty. Here we present an event-based physically-based model that is able to simulate multi-hazard land surface process chains within a single unified simulation. The final model is used to simulate a multi-hazard chain event in the Hongchun watershed, where co-seismic landslides led to a landslide dam and, two years later, a debris flow that breached the landslide dam. While most aspects of the multi-hazard chain are well predicted, the correct prediction of slope failures remains the biggest challenge. Although the results should be treated carefully, the development of such a model provides a significant progress in the applicability of multi-hazard chain simulations.

Highlights

  • Many of the damaging events that involve land surface processes are not caused by individual but multiple interacting 20 hazardous processes

  • The final model is used to simulate a multi-hazard chain event in the Hongchun watershed, where co-seismic landslides led to a landslide dam and, two years later, a debris flow that breached the landslide dam

  • The iterative method that is implemented in OpenLISEM Hazard, assumes that, at least initially, failure surfaces are parallel to the terrain surface

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Summary

Introduction

Many of the damaging events that involve land surface processes are not caused by individual but multiple interacting 20 hazardous processes. Such combinations can take place because the same triggering events (e.g. extreme rainfall) triggers various hazardous processes (e.g. flashfloods, landslides and debris flows) that interact and that may impact the same elementsat-risk. For multi-hazard assessment, the hazard intensities and impact can differ significantly when compared to the individual hazardous processes (Gill & Malamud, 2014; Van Westen and Greiving, 2017). Hazardous events may occur in sequence as cascading or domino events whereby one hazardous process triggers another either directly or later in time.

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