Abstract
Metapopulations are a central concept in ecology and conservation biology; however, estimating key parameters such as colonization rates presents a substantial obstacle to modelling metapopulations in many species. We develop spatial and non-spatial simulation models that combine incidence- and demographic-based approaches to build a relationship between observed patch occupancy, habitat turnover rates, colonization rates and dispersal scales. Applying these models to long-term observations of Pedicularis furbishiae (Furbish’s lousewort), a rare plant endemic to the Saint John River, we predict that observed habitat patches averaging 550 m in length receive colonizing seedlings with a yearly probability of 0.45 or 0.54, based on two different models. Predictions are consistent with a standard analytic metapopulation formulation modified to partition extinction drivers during the early and the late phases of a population’s life cycle. While the specific results rest on several simplifying assumptions, the models allow us to understand the impact that increasing rates of habitat turnover would have on the future survival of this species.
Highlights
Metapopulation theory is often used in quantitative conservation biology of rare species (Levins 1969; Morris and Doak 2002)
We extend the framework of Verheyen et al (2004) for estimating colonization rates and apply it to an endangered riparian plant, P. furbishiae
Inspecting the 134 runs in which final occupancy most closely matched observed occupancy, extinction events of the initial populations were caused by habitat failures in 85 % (SD 1⁄4 6 %) of the cases
Summary
Metapopulation theory is often used in quantitative conservation biology of rare species (Levins 1969; Morris and Doak 2002). Metapopulations can take various forms, including classic metapopulation models in which all subpopulations are similar and mutually dependent upon each other for recolonization following extinction (Levins 1969), source-sink models in which populations vary in their productivity (Pulliam 1988), and mainland-island models in which smaller populations experience a continual propagule rain from an external, extinction-immune source (Gotelli 1991). An important feature of metapopulations is that the processes governing local and regional population dynamics are fundamentally different from each other. Patchy populations, in which patches are continuously connected by frequent dispersal, are not generally considered as metapopulations (Freckleton and Watkinson 2002).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
